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"How The Economy Fared Under Yaradua With Oil At $40/Barrel And The Reality Today"

Published by Nairaland on Wed, 25 May 2016


The late President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua became Nigeria's president on May 29 2007. As at the time, he met an external debt of about $3,348.22 billion, and foreign reserves of about $45.0 billion and also a growing oil price of about $90/barrrel.The Nigeria's Bonny Light Crude Oil Spot Price FOB which was $95.16 per barrel in January 2008 rose to $146.15 in July 2008 before declining to $76.24 per barrel by October 17 2008. Thus, within four months, it had lost 50% of its peak price.Within this period, Yar'Adua was able to grow the external reserves to about $64 billion.During the global financial crises, Nigeria capital markets, and banking industry were hit, coupled with the dwindling oil prices.The nation's foreign reserves decelerated from $64 billion in August 2008 to $47 billion as at March 2009, a 27% decrease, as the government had to resort to the ECA which is also part of the national reserves.However according to records by CBN; Nigeria's growth trajectory was not significantly impaired. The real Gross domestic Product (GDP) growth rate which averaged 6.29 percent between 2004 and 2007 declined marginally to 5.99 per cent in 2008 rising thereafter to 6.9 percent in 2009. This is often attributed to the impressive performance of the non-oil sector, particularly, agriculture and the continuous implementation of sound macroeconomic policies.The external reserves was, however, still able to support at least 15 months of imports.In conclusion, the foreign reserves played a major factor in the survival of the economy before the early dismiss of President Yar'Adua.Goodluck Jonathan's takeover;After President's Yar'Adua's Dismiss, President Jonathan took over May 05 2010. He met a foreign reserve of about $47. 7 billion and external debt of about $3.94 billion Dollars.While Jonathan was unable grow the foreign reserves like his predecessor during the oil boom remains unclear.However the immeidate past Finance minsiter in her response to Obosanjo's accusations about Jonathan squandering $55bn said belowThe statement read in part: 'It is absolutely not true that the administration of President Goodluck Jonathan squandered the nation's reserves. The facts are clear and indisputable. At the end of May 2007, Nigeria's gross reserves stood at $43.13 billion, comprising the CBN's external reserves of $31.5billion, $9.43billion in the Excess Crude Account, and $2.18 billion in Federal Government's savings. 'These figures can be independently verified from the CBN's records. 'Secondly, it is a misconception to think that reserves are immutable or cast in stone. The reality is that since May 2007, the reserves have fluctuated in line with developments in the international oil market, rising from $43.13billion at that time, peaking at $62billion in September 2008 during the Yar'adua/Jonathan administration, when oil prices reached a peak of $147 per barrel, and falling subsequently to a low of $31.7 billion in September 2011. This fall in reserves was largely a result of the vicissitudes of the global economy and oil market which caused the CBN to intervene, using some of the reserves, to defend the value of the naira.Read more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/01/55bn-got-wrong-fg-replies-obasanjo/In conclusion again, according to Okonjo here, The national reserves played a major role in defending the economy.THE REALITY TODAYBuhari met $32 bn as external reserves and $63 billion esternal debt even though Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, promptly rose to the defence of Mr. Jonathan's administration, saying of the $63 billion debt, the administration only incurred $21.8 billion. How the external debt rose to an alarming rate remains unclear. Buhari also met a subsidy debt of about N600bn. How subsidy claims rose from N320bn to a whooping 2 trillion Naira under his administration remains unclear till this day.Buhari also took over with oil price selling below $50/barrel whch later dwindled to as low as $28/barrel. The price of crude remains below $50/barrel today.The current oil production rate have also dwindled with the renewed activities of some misguided, and deluded criminals in the name of Avengers in the ND region.FINAL CONCLUSIONIn conclusion and in the reality today, President Buhari have been trying his best to move the nation forward. Alot of leakages have been plugged, and a solid foundation is being layed down. It will be hypocritical and unfair for anyone not to expect the economy woes of today with the above analysis. With the indications above it is not out of place to say President Buhari inherited a virtually empty Treasury.I urge every right thinking Nigerian, to criticise this government in good faith and not born our of tribal hatred or the hangover of the fact that the last government was booted out of office. The Economy woes experienced today should be expected by every right thinking Nigerian.Even the immediate past Finance minister celebrated by some section of the country, warned severally about a very tough econmy.Lets pass a vote of confidence in President Buhari by clicking Like!!!!Referenceshttp://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/01/55bn-got-wrong-fg-replies-obasanjo/http://ends.ng/umaru-musa-yaradua-the-legacy-of-a-president/http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/185523-i-met-huge-debts-virtually-empty-treasury-buhari.htmlhttp://www.dailytrust.com.ng/daily/index.php/news-menu/news/58250-jonathan-left-32bn-for-buhari-ex-ministerhttp://www.thenationonlineng.net/archive2/tblnews_Detail.php'id=74667http://www.cenbank.org/OUT/2012/PUBLICATIONS/REPORTS/STD/GLOBAL%20FINANCIAL%20MELTDOWN%20AND%20THE%20REFORMS%20IN%20THE%20NIGERIAN%20BANKING%20SECTOR.PDF
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