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Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Published by Bleacher Report on Fri, 09 Dec 2016


Over seven career meetings with the New England Patriots' Tom Brady, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has fared better than most; his Ravens are 3-4 straight up in those matchups and 4-2-1 against the spread. Battle No. 8 between these two Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks will take place Monday night in Foxborough. Point spread: The Patriots opened as nine-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark(line updates and matchup report).NFL pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.6-14.0, Patriots (NFL picks on every game)Why the Ravens can cover the spreadBaltimore owns a two-game winning streak and four wins and covers in its last five games after mauling the Miami Dolphins last week 38-6. The Ravens drove 79 yards to a touchdown on the game's opening possession and led 14-0 after one quarter and 24-0 at the half on their way to an easy cover as four-point favorites.On the day, Baltimore outgained the Dolphins 496-277, as Flacco threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns against one interception. Meanwhile, Miami's only score came after it recovered a Ravens fumble at Baltimore's 8-yard line in the fourth quarter.On top of that, Ravens kicker Justin Tucker drilled a 55-yard field goal at the first-half buzzer, bumping his streak to 35 made field goals in a row.At 7-5, Baltimore is tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for first place in the AFC North but owns the tiebreaker, thanks to a 21-14 head-to-head victory last month.Why the Patriots can cover the spreadThe Patriots own a three-game winning streak and seven wins and six covers over their last eight games after beating the Los Angeles Rams last week 26-10. New England drove the opening possession 80 yards to a touchdown, led 17-0 at the half and later pushed that to 26-3 on its way toward the cover as a 13-point favorite.On the day, the Patriots outgained the Rams 402-162, outrushed them 133-36 and dominated time of possession by a 37:57-22:03 margin. In fact, Los Angeles didn't hit the 100-yard mark until the two-minute warning.At 10-2, New England leads the AFC East by three games over second-place Miami and is tied with the Oakland Raiders for the best record in the AFC. The Patriots are also 9-3 ATS this season, even though they're always favored by large spreads.Smart pickEven without tight end Rob Gronkowski, New England owns the edge offensively. Brady owns a 19-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and running back LeGarrette Blount is near his second career 1,000-yard season. But Baltimore owns the top-ranked defense in the leagueboth overall and against the run. As long as the balls are pumped to proper pressure, the smart money here on the Vegas linesresides with the Ravens. Betting trendsThe total has gone over in three of the Ravens' last four games against the Patriots.The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at home.The Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after consecutive ATS wins. All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Reports official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
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