On Thursday, President Donald Trump announced that he will begin the process of pulling the US out of the Paris climate agreement. The accord, signed by all but two countries, aims to keep the world from warming more than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, a threshold that scientists say could savethe planet from the worst case scenarios of climate change.During a White House press conference, Trump outlined his reasons for leaving the agreement. Many of them, however, were based on questionable data. Here are some of Trump's main arguments for exiting the pact ' and what the numberssay about them.SEE ALSO:Trump is pulling the US out of the Paris agreement ' here's what that could do to the environmentJob lossesDonald Trump suggested that US compliance with the Paris accord could "cost America as much as 2.7 million lost jobs by 2025, according to the National Economic Research Associates."The report on which that claim is based has been widely criticized by environmental groups. As the World Resources Institute pointed out, the NERA study uses a scenario in which the US industrial sector is forced to reduce the countrys overall emissions by nearly 40% in 20 years. That calculation doesnt take into account the role of other sectors in reducing emissions.The WRI also faultsthe NERA report for assuminga low rate of clean energy innovation. That rate was calculated by the Department of Energy as a minimal case that may underestimate advances. Whats more likely, the National Resources Defense Council suggests, is that the development of clean energy technologies will accelerate. Even since 2016, solar costs have decreased by about 8%.Today, solar jobs vastly outnumber those in coal, and those numbers continue to growa recent report from the International Renewably Energy Agency estimated that employment in the solar industry expanded 17 times faster than the US economy overall in 2016.Just a tiny temperature increaseTrump also suggested that the Paris agreement would only lead to a minuscule reduction in global temperature."Even if the Paris Agreement were implemented in full, with total compliance from all nations, it is estimated it would only produce a two tenths of one degreethink of that, this muchCelsius reduction in global temperature by the year 2100," he said. "Tiny, tiny amount."A detailed analysis of the impact of the Paris goals by Climate Interactive suggests those numbers areoff.Global temperature is going to risethere is no scenario in which there will be an overallreduction. But lets assume that Trump meant a reduction from the projections of temperature increases that would happen without the Paris agreement.Under a business as usual scenario in which past trends continue, the expected temperature increase in 2100 for this scenario is 4.2 degrees C (7.6 degrees F). If all nations fully achieve their Paris pledges, however, the average global surface temperature in 2100 is expected to be 3.3 degrees. That means the accord would lead to a reduction of nine tenths of one degree, not two.Nine tenths of a degree on a global scale is huge. Since the industrial revolution, average global temperatures have risen 0.99 degrees Celsius, according to NASA. That's not so far from .90, and were already seeing plenty of dramatic changes around the planet. Even a reduction of two tenths of a degree would not betinyitd be 20% of the increase weve already seen.Trump went on: "In fact," he said, "14 days of carbon emissions from China alone would wipe out the gains from Americaand this is an incredible statisticwould totally wipe out the gains from America's expected reductions in the year 2030."That claim also does not appear to be accurate. With the US abandoning its commitments, Climate Interactive calculates that by 2025, the countrywill emit 6.7 gigatons of CO2 per year, instead of the 5.3 gigatons of CO2 per year that the US would have emitted under the agreement.As of 2013, China emitted 9.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide per yearwhich comes out to 0.025 gigatons per day. 14 days' worth would be 0.35 gigatonsfar less than the annual US decrease.A negative economic impact on the USIn his speech, Donald Trump suggested that remaining in the agreement would cost the US economy close to $3 trillion in lost GDP and 6.5 million industrial jobs, while households would have $7,000 less income, and in many cases, much worse than that.Trump didnt cite a source for that statistic, but he suggested in a speech on April 29 that the cost would be $2.5 trillionand non-partisan website Factcheck.org looked into thatclaim.White House spokesman Steven Cheung told Factcheck.orgthat the number came from a report published by the conservative Heritage Foundation in April 2016.Factcheck.org ran Heritages analysis by Roberton C. Williams III, a resource economist at the University of Maryland and a senior fellow at the economic analysis nonprofit Resources for the Future. Williams said the Heritage estimate was correct based onthe methodology the foundation usedthe analysts estimateda carbon tax rate of $36, which would increase by 3% each year from 2015 to 2035. Withthose numbers, theUS GDP woulddecrease by 0.55 percent annually through 2035.But according to calculations done by Resources of the Future, the US could reach its Paris goals with a much lower carbon tax rate over less time (either a constant rate of $21.22 per year until 2025, or a rate that starts at $16.87 and increases by 3% each year in the same period). By those numbers, the US GDP would decreasebetween just under 0.10 percent and 0.35 percent per year from now until 2025.See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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