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The planet's worst-case climate scenario: 'If not hell then a place with a similar temperature

Published by Business Insider on Fri, 11 Aug 2017


If we don't cut greenhouse gas emissions, we'll see more deadly heat waves, acidic oceans, and rising seas.At this point, the planet will warm no matter what butwe can still prevent it from getting toobad.Environmentalist and author Bill McKibben told Business Insider that without intervention, the world would be: "If not hell, then a place with a similar temperature."The world is almost certainly going to warm past what's frequently considered a critical tipping point.Arecent study pointed out that we have just a 5% chance ofkeeping the planet from warming more than2 degrees Celsius, the upper limit the Paris Agreement was designed to avoid. Beyond that threshold,many researchers say the effects of climate changelike rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and intense stormswillbecome significantly more concerning.But how bad could it really get' What wouldthe planet look like if we don't cut emissions and instead keep burning fossil fuels at the rate we are now'Business Insider recently asked author and environmentalist Bill McKibben that question, and his description of what Earth would look like was sobering."If not hell, then a place with a similar temperature," he said. "We have in the Earth's geological record some sense of what happens when you run carbon levels up to the levels were running them nowit gets a lot hotter."Extremeas that might sound, there's significant evidence that we're feeling theeffects of climate change already. Unchecked, the planet will getfar hotter by 2100a time that many children alive today will see."Huge swaths of the world will be living in places that by the end of the century will have heat waves so deep that people won't be able to deal with them, you have sea level rising dramatically, to the point that most of the world's cities are drowning, the ocean turning into a hot, sour, breathless soup as it acidifies and warms," McKibben said.The evidence for how bad it could getNone of that is exaggeration. A recent study in the journal Nature Climate Change found that 30% of the world is already exposed to heat intense enough to kill peoplefor 20 or more days eachyear. That temperature is defined using a heat index that takes into account temperature and humidity; above 104 degrees Farenheit (40 degrees C ), organs swell and cells start to break down.Heat waves are the deadliest weather events most years , more so than hurricanes or tornadoes. In 2010, more than 10,000 people did in a Moscow heat wave. In 2003, some estimates say a European summer heat wave killed up to 70,000.Even if we drastically cut emissions by 2100, the world will continue to warm due to the greenhouse gases that have already been emitted. That would cause the percentage of the worldexposed to deadly heat for 20 or more daysto rise to48%. Under a scenario with zero emissions reductions from today, researchers estimate that 74% of the world will be exposed to deadly heat by the end of the century.Our oceans are at risk, too. Adraft of anupcoming US government report on climate change projectsthat even if emissions are cut tohit zero by2080, we'll still see between one and four feet of sea level rise by 2100. Without thecuts, it suggests that aneight-foot rise can't be ruled out. That report also suggeststhat oceans are becoming more acidic faster than they have at any point inthe last 66 million years. Increased acidity can devastate marine life and coral reefs, which cover less than 2% of the ocean floorbut are relied upon byabout 25% of marine speciesincluding many fishthat are key food sources for humans.The key takeaway here is not that the world is doomed, however.It's that if we don't dramatically cut emissions soon, we'll put the planet on course to be amuch less pleasant place.In some ways, progress towards emissions reductionsis already underway. Market trends areincreasing use of renewable energy sources, political movements are pushing leaders to enact new types of policies, and legal challenges to government inaction on climate are popping up around the world. The question is whether we'll act fast enough to stave off the most dire consequences of greenhouse gas emissions."In order to catch up with the physics of climate change, we have to go at an exponential rate," McKibben said. "It's not as if this was a static problem.If we don't get to it very soon, we'll never get to it."SEE ALSO:Baby Boomers could irreversibly ruin the planet for Millennials ' and the clock is tickingJoin the conversation about this storyNOW WATCH: 6 major US cities could be underwater within 80 years ' here are the disturbing 'after' images
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