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AFL Round 23 Betting Preview: Game Odds, Trends, Analysis for Week Ahead

Published by Bleacher Report on Thu, 24 Aug 2017


The final round of the tightest AFL season in history is here, and supporters from all over the country are still on the edge of their seats with places in both the top four and the top eight on the line.There were 12 clubs in the running for the Premiership last week, but after the Hawthorn Hawks' shock loss to the Carlton Blues on Saturday night, that number dropped to 11.The Hawks' opposition on Friday nightthe Western Bulldogssit in 11th place on the ladder and are the most unlikely team to sneak into the final eight as they will be relying on other results.If the holders don't make it, they will become the first team to miss the finals a year after lifting the trophy since Hawthorn in 2009. A Bulldogs win is assessed as a $1.78 AUD shot, while the Hawks can end their season on a high and send three-time Premiership captain Luke Hodge off with a win that's priced at $2.05, according to AustralianGambling.com.au.The first of five games on Saturday sees the Melbourne Demons looking to secure their first finals appearance in 11 years with a win over one of their oldest rivals, the Collingwood Magpies.The Melbourne fans thought they had last week's match against the Brisbane Lions in the bag, before the Lions got within eight points with just a few minutes on the clock. They eventually saluted by the slender margin of 13 points against the cellar-dwelling Lions.The Magpies pushed the Cats last week, but with so many of their stars on the sidelines and so much on the line for the Demons, Melbourne have been installed as a $1.60 favourite with the Pies out at $2.35.Speaking of the Lions, they host the North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday afternoon in what has become a battle to avoid the wooden spoon. The loser will finish last and secure the No. 1 draft pick.The Lions are favoured at $1.52, with the Kangas out at $2.53. A loss for North would see them win their first spoon since 1972.While those two sides are battling it out at the bottom of the ladder, the Sydney Swans are $1.06 to win their 14th game from 16 starts when they host the Blues ($9.50) before Port Adelaide Power ($1.06) are at identical odds to beat the Gold Coast Suns ($9.50).The match of the round takes place down the highway in Geelong on Saturday night, when the third-place Geelong Cats host the second-place Greater Western Sydney Giants.The subplot to this one is that if the Cats win, then these sides will likely face off at the same venue in the first week of the finals. Tom Hawkins and Mitch Duncan will return to the Geelong side, but they will have to improve on the slow starts they have suffered in each of the last three weeks.The Giants have won four games in a row, but it's the hosts who have the slight advantage in betting, at $1.86, with the Giants out at $1.95.The first of three Sunday games sees the eighth-place Essendon Bombers host the 14th-place Fremantle Dockers in a match the former should win. Victory will mark a stunning return to the finals just one year after they won the wooden spoon when most of their stars were suspended due to the infamous drugs saga.A Bombers win will give you a return of just $1.13 from the bookmakers, while the Dockerswho are coming off back-to-back 100-point lossesare given little hope at $6.05.The second game on Sunday sees the Richmond Tigers ($1.36) take on the St Kilda Saints ($3.20) at the MCG. The Tigers can secure a double-chance with a win, while the Saints can still mathematically make the finals but need several results to go their way.The final game of the round will be played at Perth's Domain Stadium, and it also has a direct impact on the make-up of the finals. An Adelaide Crows ($1.53) win will give the South Australian club their first Minor Premiership since 2005, while the ninth-place West Coast Eagles ($2.51) are playing for their season.
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