President Goodluck Jonathans bid for a second term did not take Nigerians by surprise. But, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate has some hurdles to cross to secure a fresh mandate, writes Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI.After many months of drama and suspense, President Goodluck Jonathan has finally declared his intention to seek re-election next year. This comes as no surprise to anyone. It is coming after the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) stakeholders have endorsed the President as the partys sole candidate for the election and after over a year since groups like the Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN) have been holding rallies, putting up advertisements in print and electronic media, highlighting what they consider his achievements. Though the President had kept mum on his intention, his body language made it clear that he had made up his mind to run; because his well-orchestrated strategy to seek re-election has been unfolding daily.This eventuality was foreseen by political opponents within and outside the PDP and they tried but failed to intimidate him into jettisoning the idea. This was the underlining reason behind the subterranean crisis that rocked the Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF) electionlast year, which eventually led to the PDP crisis. None of the arrowheads of the crisis would admit it openly, but it was spearheaded by some northern aspirants in the party, who were nursing the ambition to challenge Jonathan for the ticket. At last, it led to the defection of five of the seven aggrieved governors to the All Progressives Congress (APC). The rest, as they say, is history.Now that the cat has been let out of the bag, the battle for next years election has just begun in earnest. With the coming of the APC, which has transformed the country into a two-party state, a competitive contest is in the offing. As a mega opposition party that has roots across the country, the APC would give the ruling party a run for its money. For the first time since 2003, the PDP is facing a genuine challenge of being defeated at the polls. At the moment, events are still evolving. So, there is no telling the way the pendulum would swing. Regardless of the way the election goes, however, it would go down in history as a landmark contest.Since Jonathan is a sitting President contesting on the platform of the ruling party, the odds are stacked in his favour. The party has been in power in the last 15 and half years and has mastered the strategy of holding on to power. This includes a huge financial resource base and the utilisation of governance machinery, propaganda and coercive apparatuses. Besides, the party has a significant presence in all the 36 states and dominant control in over 21 states.One of the factors that played up during the 2011 elections, which is likely to resurface in the contestalbeit to a lesser extentis the Jonathan factor. The PDP candidate appears to enjoy a passionate support in certain zones, based on his personal capacity, rather than party loyalty. Those who are rooting for him in these zones are not particularly concerned about his performance. They base their loyalty on the fact that he comes from a minority tribe in the Southsouth, where the country derives its oil revenue, but which has been marginalised by the ruling elite since independence in 1960.The President has doggedly pursued this second term ambition, in spite of repeated calls that he should not run; deftly muscling his way through all sorts of opposition. He displayed a similar single-mindedness when he ran in 2011. Opponents have the tendency to underrate Jonathan. They see him as someone who lacks the qualities to govern a complex nation like Nigeria. But, behind the facade of a meek and gentle personality lies a strong willed character. He has this mystique around him that has worked in his favour. His ascension to the Presidency is usually described as an accident. He came into limelight in 2007, when he was picked as a running mate to the late President Umaru YarAdua. Hitherto, he was content with the PDPs governorship ticket for Bayelsa State, which he had in his kitty. But, circumstances threw him up. From there, the unexpected happened and he became President.From all indications, the battle for next years presidential elections would be fought in the North by the two dominant parties; there are a number of states in the region that could swing either way. With the exception of a few states in the South, which could also fall into the category of battleground states, the voting pattern in the region is already discernible. The Southsouth and Southeast states are likely to vote PDP, while APC governors in the Southwest are expected to deliver their states for whosoever wins the partys presidential primaries.Incidentally, the North is likely to be the APCs stronghold because one of the aspirants, Gen. Mohammadu Buhari, has a cult following in the region. Buhari was able to garner 12.2 million votes from the 37.7 million valid votes cast in the 2011 presidential elections, when he contested on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), one of the three major parties that metamorphosed into the APC. The interesting aspect of it is that the votes were mostly from the North and that the CPC was barely four months old then. The party was registered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in November 2010. Thus, under a bigger platform, Buhari is likely to do much better in the North and the South, if he emerges as the APC candidate. The other aspirants gunning for the APC ticket are former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso and publisher of Leadership newspapers, Sam Nda-Isaiah.What gives Jonathan an edge is that he is likely to have the sympathy of Northern minorities in the Northcentral geo-political zone, which have shown the tendency of not aligning with the core North in recent times.But, for him to make any appreciable impact during the election, President Jonathan would have to contend with a number of factors, which may constitute stumbling blocks to his aspiration. The PDP candidate is going to face some challenges.Dame PatienceThe meddlesomeness of the First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan, in the affairs of the PDP in some states may constitute a stumbling block to the ambition of her husband. This was what allegedly led to the quarrel between the President and Rivers State Governor Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi. Besides, the Rivers State chapter of the party has been complaining for the umpteenth time about the determination to impose former Minister of State for Education, Mr. Nyesom Wike, as the partys flag bearer in next years governorship election. The First Lady is believed to be showing interest in the political developments in some PDP-controlled states.Sources in the Presidency said most leaders in the party, including some governors, are not happy with the way she has been meddling in the affairs of PDP and imposing of who should fly the flag of the party in different elective positions, especially in Bayelsa, Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi and Kwara states. What we dont understand is why the President is allowing her to carry on the way she is doing. I have spoken to many elders in the party and they said they would not vote for President Jonathan because of his wife. So, expect among other things, protest votes against Jonathan by even PDP members, said a PDP chieftain. Stakeholders in the Oyo State chapter have also warned Mrs. Jonathan to hands off what they consider to be their internal affairs. She had requested that the chapter should mend fences with former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, who is believed to be nursing a governorship ambition.Chibok girlsAnother source of headache to the Presidency is the growing insecurity in the country. The President continues to face criticisms and pressures over the deteriorating security situation, especially in the Northwest region, where the Boko Haram terrorist group has a strong presence. Many Nigerians had been sympathetic to the war effort, until the issue of the abduction of over 200 school girls from the Federal Government Girls College, Chibok, Borno State, took the centre stage. But, it was the governments apparent lack of adequate concern over the fate of the girls that has reduced the image of the administration in public opinion. Almost 200 days after they were abducted, Nigerians do not know precisely the true situation.The reported ceasefire agreement brokered by the President of Chad and the prospects of the girls regaining their freedom had provided a glimmer of hope for the government that such breakthrough might reduce the negative impact of the development on Jonathans re-election bid, if the agreement is able to scale through. Even at that, it is already too late for some persons, who have already made up their minds.CorruptionThe dust raised by the Pension Fund scam, Malam Sanusi Lamido Sanusis allegations, Otedola-Farouk saga and other corruption-related cases are yet to settle and they will count against him in 2015. His posture against the monster called corruption, which appears to be the root cause of many of the countrys woes, is not too impressive. That he, as an individual, is not stealing does not exculpate the growing army of plunderers in governmentreal or perceived. This has provided grounds for the opposition to take the administration to the cleaners.Indeed, Jonathan has a poor public image due to his failure to wage a spirited war against corruption, leakages in the oil industry, including pipeline vandalism. A long pile of records of his notable achievements may not be able to erase this negative perception before the election.One of the perceived weaknesses that have cast the Jonathan administration in bad light is the less than forceful Presidential presence and infective deployment and application of presidential power in calling people around him to order. This has to do with the Presidents perceived inability to deal with mediocrity within his kitchen cabinet. His actions suggest that he accommodates mediocre elements within his inner circle and that he lacks the will to show them the door.Wrong signalsAnother source of irritation to many of those who voted for the President in 2011 is the perceived appropriation of Presidential advocacy space by exuberant partisans and fanatical supporters, who project a wrong image of the Presidency as a regional agenda. This situation tends to alienate moderate political forces across the country, whose sense of co-ownership of the Presidency appears diminished. With this kind of orientation, the President has not demonstrated loudly enough that he is the leader of the nation, irrespective of religious background, tribe and political persuasion.]]>
Click here to read full news..
