To the embattled Governor TimipreSylva of Bayelsa State, the homestate of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, travails, bedevilling his second term ambition in office did not begin overnight. Long before now, several powerful forces, neck deep in the political control of the volatile state in the Niger Delta region had been networking to checkmate, what they termed the retrogressive reign of the stoutly built and handsome looking chief executive of the Ijaw speaking state.Apart from the perceived dismal performance of the governor, critics of his government had been exploring the appalling state of public infrastructure in Bayelsa to drum support for premeditated campaign against the aspiration of the governor to pilot the affairs of the state beyond 2011.But pundits believed that his major problems stemmed from his resolve to dismantle the political structures that brought him to power in 2007 and the needless battles he has been fighting to save his political carrier from being consigned to the dustbin of history.Investigations conducted by the Nigerian Tribune, indicated that shortly after Sylva took over the reins of power, some major stakeholders, within the state Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), on the platform of the 'Green Movement', which played significant roles in his emergence, following the decision of late President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua to pick the incumbent President Jonathan as his running mate, were completely abandoned.He was said to have constituted a new clique or cabal of loyalists, who now form the major plank of his political structures, a development that created deep seated animosity between him and highly influential chieftains of his party in the state.The growing problems confronting Sylva, a graduate of English Language, regarding his spirited moves to secure a second term in office are far from being over as the acting chairman of the PDP, Alhaj Abubakar Kawu Baraje, on Monday, challenged him to make public reasons for his disqualification from the last Saturday gubernatorial primary election of the party, held at Yenagoa.However, the report of the Gubernatorial Appeal Panel, headed by the former deputy governor of Ekiti State, Chief (Mrs) Abiodun Olujimi, had cited security reasons and operation of foreign accounts as impediments to the governor's final clearance to partake in the gubernatorial primaries before the PDP national leadership finally wielded the big stick which ousted him from the contest, via outright disqualification.The main thrust of the security reason that ultimately edged Sylva out of the contest, the Friday Edition learnt, was the alleged recorded threat he issued against President Jonathan and Nigeria's corporate entity, should he fail to emerge the standard-bearer of the PDP in the 2012 gubernatorial poll. He was said to have threatened fire and brimstone by saying that what the nation was currently facing in form of the dreaded Boko Haram insurgency would be a child's play by the time he unleashed terror and large scale violence, if some powerful interest groups thwarted his plans to become the candidate of his party as part of the build up to the election.The scary development informed the decision of the nation's top security brass to summon him to Abuja about a month ago to defend himself over the allegation. Sylva's Chief Press Secretary, Mr Doifie Ola, who rose in strong defence of his principal, had described the allegation of treasonable threat levelled against the governor as total falsehood.Said he, 'The story is that there is a tape in which he threatened to kill President Goodluck Jonathan. This is completely false. At no time did Sylva threaten to kill the President. He has no reason whatsoever to wish the President or any other person dead', admitting that the governor did have a telephone conversation, but was quick to add that 'he must have expressed anger, but nothing near what was alleged. It was exaggerated.'Beyond the problem Sylva may have had with Jonathan, the national leadership of the party was said to have dumped the governor because he was seen to have conducted himself in a manner that suggested that he could not subject himself to the control of the party. The PDP gave indications that it wanted to use his case a warning signal to other sitting governors that in spite of their powerful position, if they have reasons to disregard the wishes of the party, there are ways they could be whipped into line.From this perspective, keen watchers of political events and unfolding intrigues in the battle for the soul of Bayelsa are beginning to ponder over the chances of the PDP to sustain its hegemony on the oil-rich state, as the preparation for the much expected gubernatorial poll gathers momentum.There is a strong indication that the party, which prides itself as the largest among the Black African nations, would need to work extra hard as far as its political monopoly of governance apparatus in the state is concerned. Apart from the increasing apathy against the administration of Timipre Sylva, that had come under sharp criticism, for failing to allow democratic dividends of democracy trickle down to the masses, through his unimpressive performance and seeming collapse of social amenities and public utilities, the controversy surrounding the move to find a better successor for him might place hurdles in the way of the PDP to coast home to victory in 2012.Though, the state has been governed by the ruling party since democracy finally berthed in Nigeria in 1999, analysts hold the notion that the party is gradually losing face and the confidence of the people. Failure of the embattled governor to justify over N400 billion that accrued to Bayelsa from the Federation Account, with visible capital projects that have direct positive impacts on the citizenry and the dotting of the state's landscape with abandoned projects may give the PDP a credibility problem at the polls. It is believed that this might consequently make its candidate a hard sell to the electorate, if corrective measures aimed at changing the negative perspective of the people towards the party were not taken before 11 February, 2012.Despite Sylva's challenges in making his second term project a fait accompli, using PDP as his platform, the unwavering support he had received from all the chairmen of the eight local government councils constituting the state may be another albatross that could throw spanner into the calculation of the PDP in securing grass roots backup, which is a strong determinant factor for victory at the polls. The chairman of the Association of Local Governments of Nigeria (ALGON), Bayelsa State chapter, Hon Tiwei Oruminighe, has been in front of the struggle to actualise the dream of the governor. Shortly before Sylva flagged off his gubernatorial campaign some weeks back, the ALGON boss, who is also the chairman of Southern Ijaw Local Government Council had organised a special fasting and prayer programme, in conjunction with the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) to seek divine intervention over the governor's predicament.To pundits, this aptly shows the firm grip of Sylva over the chairmen and their unalloyed loyalty to his cause. The ability of the PDP leadership, both within the state and Abuja, to whittle down the overwhelming control and influence of the governor over the council chairmen and state legislators would go a long way to determine if its gubernatorial candidate, Honourable Henry Seriake Dickson, would have a smooth sail to the Creek Haven Government House after the gubernatorial election.Notwithstanding the furore and divergent reactions generated by the disqualification of Sylva, coupled with his legal challenge at the Federal High Court, Abuja, the leadership of the party had insisted that the exclusion of the governor from the race would not affect its electoral chances at the polls. According to the Bayelsa State chairman of the party, Mr James Dugo, 'We are sure of a resounding victory at the governorship polls, which would hold in February, 2012 and the disqualification of Governor Sylva does not pose any threat to our success at the election.' He added that, 'PDP is a formidable party that is stronger and bigger than any individual and I believe that Sylva would join hands with the party to work for victory during the election'.While some keen observers of political developments in Bayelsa contend that opposition parties in the state could only muster courage to give the PDP a good run for its political influence and financial war chest if they present a formidable candidate, others hold the view that Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Labour Party (LP) lacked strong political structures and base required to tackle the ruling party at the polls.Besides, the rumoured romance between Governor Sylva and the national leader of the ACN, Senator Bola Tinubu, regarding the former's discreet move to negotiate for the ticket of the progressive party had remained inconclusive, not to talk of the needed political refuge for the governor, who is now left in the cold by the party that brought him into limelight.Governor Sylva's situation has been very dramatic. During the last general election, PDP discouraged gubernatorial aspirants from running against their incumbent state governors. In fact, that was how Sylva got the governorship ticket before the aborted governorship election in Bayelsa State and four others.Now that the emergence of PDP's flag bearer in the governorship election, scheduled to hold in Bayelsa state next year has become subject of litigation in the court of law, with President Jonathan's charge that the party should not be intimidated over the disqualification of his home state governor, another nagging question begging for answer is the strength of its candidate, Hon Henry Seriake Dickson and his electoral value in winning the much touted governorship polls.Dickson, a two-term federal lawmaker, representing Sagbama/ Ekeremor Constituency in the House of Representatives was the founding secretary of Green Movement, a political platform that was used by President Goodluck Jonathan to become the governor of Bayelsa State in 2006. Investigation by the the Friday Edition revealed that he had deployed the veritable experience garnered over the years to further explore the nooks and crannies of all the eight local government areas, both upland and riverine in shoring up his chances ahead of the real battle for the control of Bayelsa in 2012.Having realised the potency and overwhelming political influence of the Green Movement in the state's political engineering, the lawmaker, whose foray into active politics has spanned over two decades did not hesitate to use the same platform to bring his dream to fruition.Investigation by the Friday Edition revealed that one of the strongest potentials of Dickson, which may work to his advantage is his ability to listen to the people, accessibility and readiness to cross fertilize ideas with technocrats and other category of individuals in creating a leeway to proffer solution to teething problems and challenges, facing Bayelsans.Other political indices that may sway the support of the Ijaws for the realisation of Dickson's ambition is the active involvement of some core loyalists and allies of President Jonathan in his campaign and scheming to rule the state. These prominent Ijaw leaders, who wield influence on the people, include King Johnny Turner and Senator Emmanuel Paulker among others have not hidden their support and strategic backing for the aspiration of the federal lawmaker.As the clock ticks towards the conduct of the gubernatorial poll, uncertainty and apprehension over the unfolding scenario continue to raise questions over what would be the next major political event that would shape the history of the 15-year-old state as Bayelsans wait with bated breath for the potential Messiah who will salvage the oil-rich state.
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