Some years back when I was in the university, there was this security guard called Mr. Samuel who became my friend. He could not have been less than 50, and from what he told me he had had a stint with the police. What made him interesting was his ritual of drinking garri every afternoon. I never asked him if he also took it in the mornings and in the nights! But I asked him if garri alone would be enough to satisfy him. He said it would, that all he had to do was "pour plenty." And indeed he always filled a large bowl with garri. I never imagined anyone could drink so large a quantity, and without at least adding groundnut or eating it with beans. For Mr. Samuel, only garri serves as a main course. Out of curiosity, I asked him what he would do if for whatever reason garri became costly and out of his reach, and he replied, "ah, na him be say katakata go burst for country be that o". Perhaps my friend meant there could be a revolution.According to Wikipedia, revolution (from the Latin revolutio, "a turn around") is a fundamental change in power or organisational structures that takes place in a relatively short period of time. Revolutions have existed for a long time and the reasons for them are as varied as the methods employed. The purpose could be to change the socio-political situation of a country or even the economy. Among the popular revolutions were the French Revolution, the American Revolution, and the Russian Revolution.The Russian Revolution, as a case in point, was caused by "the lack of bread". In 1917 during World War II, Russia was at war with the Germans and the tide flowed against the Russians. The then Tsar Nicholas II was becoming unpopular as food supplies began to reduce, most especially the staple bread and unemployment too was getting high, with inflation compounding it. Conditions were very bad for the Russians and workers also were on strike in Petrograd (formerly St Petersburg). In anger, workers joined revolutionary organisations called soviets; then the people in unison rose up and demanded that land be redistributed, which were then held by nobles as serfdom was in operation. On February 28, 1917, Nicholas II abdicated his throne, his forces surrendered, and that ended the tsarist regimes in Russia.In "The influence of Eighteenth Century Ideas on the French Revolution," published in the Journal of the History of Ideas vol. 10, No. 1 (January 1949), historian Henri Peyre, wrote: "18th century philosophy taught the Frenchman to find his condition wretched, unjust and illogical and made him disinclined to the patient resignation to his troubles that had long characterised his ancestors The propaganda of the philosophies perhaps more than any other factor accounted for the fulfillment of the preliminary condition of the French Revolution, namely discontent with the existing state of things."The things that also bring about change are reason and criticism, values and morals, human knowledge and a peoples collective unhappiness. When the people are not happy about a situation they are critical of it. When they are critical, governments reaction will depend on the type of government. A government can either ride it, it can move for reforms or it can be repressive.Since the Arab Spring, people have been asking whether revolution can happen in Nigeria. It is believed that when you push a Nigerian to the wall he carves more room for himself. But times are changing. Nigerians are becoming more aware. And Nigerians are beginning to lose patience. Many Nigerians are fed up with the situation in the country. They are only looking for a spark. Revolutions are not exclusive to a certain people. And no country is immune to it.There is discontent in the land. It can be seen in violence all around, bomb blasts every now and then, and general insecurity. Many youths and graduates are unemployed, and are angry. And on the ready for use anytime they are called upon. We have seen them in the Niger Delta, they are there in the north, and they are there in every region of the country.In Nigeria, people cannot reach their potential and many cannot live their dreams. A few people corner for themselves the oil money meant for all of us. Workers are demanding a decent minimum wage, yet states are declaring bankruptcy. And you think it will continue. I doubt. Many have pointed the way forward but government chooses not to look at the direction people are pointing. Many want a sovereign national conference to discuss how Nigerians should live among themselves, government continues to deter. Many have called for true federalism, government continues to pussyfoot. Many have said Nigeria was better during regionalism, government continues to play the ostrich.Perhaps, in all of this, one contentious issue that if not well managed that has the potential for a casus beli is the issue of fuel subsidy removal. Anything that will make things like garri not be on the table of Nigerians could be catastrophic. A hungry man is an angry man.But even from all indications, government does not understand what this fuel subsidy thing is really all about, yet it has kept flying the kite. It cannot be overemphasised that the fuel subsidy issue if not handled wisely is a potential tinderbox that can spark off an uprising. President Goodluck Jonathan needs to be careful. I do not know who advises him. Many despotic regimes in Nigeria have come before him, and have played it smart and at worst ended up increasing fuel price, and left jeje. They had instead engaged themselves in other issues in the country and must have told themselves "it will not be me o". Why then should it be Jonathan who we thought is populist' If Jonathan was sure fuel subsidy meant well for Nigerians he could "shoot" and "apologise" later, using a retrospective approach, that is he could "remove" it "quietly" and later tell Nigerians after many months, "Do you know you have been living without fuel subsidy for months, and it did not hurt'"It will help Nigerian leaders a great deal if they lived as if Nigeria had no oil. Fuel subsidy is Nigerians nemesis, and anyone who pushes for it antagonises Nigerians, and is then Nigerians archenemy. The best way to drive this home to Jonathan is for him to treat fuel subsidy like Lord Voldermort of the Harry Potter series. Voldermort is Harry Potters main antagonist. He has a lot of powers that witches and wizards are scared of him, and dare not speak his name, instead referring to him as "He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named." Fuel subsidy must not be mentioned. Anything that will affect the price of garri could cause trouble for Jonathans government. Mr. Samuel is waiting in the wings. He is not alone.Dr. Odoemena, a medical practitioner based in Ogba, Lagos wrote in via cuzdetriumph@yahoo.co.uk
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