Few days ago, Ogun State Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun presented the state's 2012 budget. Prior to its presentation, a two-days community budget retreat was held at the conference centre, Ogere, Ogun State; and had in attendance the governor, state executive council members , top civil servants and invited guests from different sectors. A major thrust of the retreat was for the current administration to be abreast of what constitutes a harmonious government-civil service relationship and also for the governor to saturate himself with the various contributions of participants which will be useful in formulating the 2012 budget. Expectations from the budget were high not only because it is the first in the life of the current administration, but one which should reflect the catchphrase of the governor that dwells on rescuing and rebuilding Ogun State.It is important to note that there had been mixed feelings on the first six months of the Amosun administration which have been variously described at fair, cautious and tentative. Opposition voices have even described it as rudderless and hobbled by inertia. Whichever side of the divide Ogun stakeholders may want to align, observers believe that the government ought to enjoy the benefit of doubt having only been in office for six months. However, dissenting opinions claim that time was enough for any government with conceptual ideas and a working blueprint to hit the ground running by putting in place visible policy structures and developmental initiatives to indicate its direction. Amidst these criticisms, government defended itself claiming lack of adequate finance coupled with debts it met on ground. Hence, the 2012 budget is expected to wean the government of any entanglement to the last budget as prepared and implemented up till May 2011 by Otunba Gbenga Daniel's government.It is within the context of the preceding allusions that expectations were rife on Amosun's inaugural budget. Looking at the estimates presented by the governor, it proposed N187.901billion for the 2012 fiscal year. The budget titled, 'Budget to Rebuild', will be financed through federal government allocations of N70.800billion or 53 percent and IGR of N63.601billion or 47 percent. The governor informed the gathering that 65 percent of the budget would traverse his five-point agenda that include affordable education, rural and infrastructural development/employment generation, affordable housing & urban renewal, efficient healthcare delivery and agricultural production/industrialization. The governor enunciated that government will also put in place framework to make the state financially independent by raising IGR. However, a cursory peep into the estimates reveals some incongruities which call to question the integrity of the budget. This is important because at the vortex of any budget is the imperative of efficient utilisation of available resources for the socio-economic development and welfare of citizens.Budgets, to all intents and purposes are predicated on certain indices and variables that revolve around expected inflow of cash. Budgets have benchmarks which gives it a life of its own, suffice it to say Amosun's budget cannot be benchmarked and as well has no life; full of innuendo and assumptions. Of all the intangibles replete in the document, the income and expenditure aspects of it come to immediate focus. On income side, 53 percent (N70.800b) of expected income is from federal allocation while 47 percent (N60.601b) will be purportedly realised from internally generated revenue (IGR). On the expenditure side, it was stated that recurrent expenditure will gulp 47 percent (N88.306b) of revenue while capital expenditure gulps 53 percent (N99.594b). From these figures, one is at a loss on what this budget portends. From the income estimates, both the federal allocation and IGR amount to N131.401b but on the expenditure estimates, both the recurrent and capital add up to N187.954b. Between N131.401b and N187.954b, there is an unexplained differential of N56.553b. How come'From the foregoing, two overpowering issues, among others, become pertinent. One, the budget is obviously a deficit as expenditure outstrips income and the governor never mentioned how the extra N53.553billion it plans to spend will be sourced. How can such a whooping sum be inserted in the budget without any empirical explanation. Observers have asked if there is a silent plan to procure a commercial loan or access the capital market to float a bond; otherwise, this will appear to be pure magic or voodoo. Two, on the income side, the Amosun administration wants to fund the budget with N60.601billion from its IGR which represents 47 percent of total income. I view this as ridiculous and a hocus pocus meant to amuse the enthusiastic gathering. Even with the 300 percent increase in its new tax regime, government makes N1b which is about N100m-N200m increase on what the last administration generated monthly; hence, where does the N5b monthly IGR come from as the item has become a budget factor'From point two above, there is already a potential 80 percent failure on the IGR ab initio and a concomitant 45 percent failure on total income likewise. It is believed that fabricators of the budget are not oblivious of this income shortfall and equally made a ghost proviso in the form of the padded N53.553b; whereas, government ought to come clean on this provision by factoring its source in the budget. There is nothing essentially wrong if it stipulated that it was going to explore a financial instrument at some point in the fiscal calendar. This indiscretion will create distortions in the budget and the effect is an alarming failure of an already deficit budget, which is not what is expected of a 'rebuilding government'. More pungently, government stands the risk of failing in its five-point agenda hinged on these altercating estimates as performance will be stalled.Finally, it is incumbent on the governor, his commissioner for finance, and budget officials to clear the air on the incongruities before they metamorphose into fiscal hemorrhage which will clog the delivery of democratic dividends and will further exacerbate the dwindling rating of a government that overpromised but has under-delivered thus far.'Adeniji, a Public Affairs Analyst, lives in Abeokuta.
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