As President Goodluck Jonathan serious that he is ready for a revolution' And is his recalcitrance over the removal of the fuel subsidy, come 2012, an evidence of this desire for a revolution' Even though he admitted recently that he is not a David or a General, he still seeks a fight with his people' Where is this bravado coming from' It would be interesting to find out how a country that cannot manage its Boko Haram terrorists, that continually taunts its manhood all the time, will suddenly be able to contain a mass uprising.Watching a revolution on television is fun in a macabre way, a more realistic depiction of reality that even Big Brother cannot match. Yet, lets not be fooled, revolutions are not romantic. It is only the person that has not witnessed Sango display his power that speaks derisively about Oba Koso. A revolution, like war, is not a joke and talking about its prospects does not mean you take it seriously.For one, a revolution will be too messy for Nigeria to handle. In Syria, an estimated 5,000 people have died and the revolution is still far from over. In fact, it seems it is just starting. The rebels are meeting a stiff-necked resistance from their leaders and they are dropping dead in huge numbers. Egypt and Libya might have sent their leaders packing but they are far from achieving political stability. I do not believe Nigeria needs that kind of setback.I expressed on this same space recently that Nigeria does not need a political revolution. It is a much unneeded setback and though it looks like a shortcut to getting rid of inept leaders, it will only cause undue bloodletting and ethnic uprising which will lead nowhere. Nigeria has a lot of fault lines that will undo a revolution from the beginning. We would do well with a moral re-armament and not a revolution.Again, what is a revolution without violence' Are we just going to sack our leaders or give them the Ghaddafi treatment in addition' Or, will it be just a peaceful demonstration during which we march through the streets to register our displeasure and thereafter go home to await the results of the march' If we wipe out corrupt leaders during the uprising, what do we do with the power vacuum' Hand over power to an opposing political party or begin a fresh democratic process' Or, we remain without leadership and everybody becomes his/her own government' The questions and complexities on the issue of a revolution are varied and the bottom line is that no leader should seek revolution when there is the option of resolution.The debate on the issue of the subsidy removal itself has been robust but inconclusive. One divide states that there is nothing like fuel subsidy, another divide states there is subsidy but it ends up in the wrong pockets. The government divide insists the only way we can have critical infrastructure is if the subsidy is removed. Almost every side is right in a way.There is also the justified fear of hyper-inflation which will result from the removal. Some barmy attempts have been made to compare this government logic to the telecoms industry magic. The major difference is that the prices of phone lines and recharge cards do not have the same multiplier effects on the economy as does fuel or its subsidy. The government side recognises these immediate effects will occur but assures that it would only be temporary before the dynamic forces of demand and supply take over.Possibly, but how long will this temporary last' Three days' Three years' Three decades' Do they themselves have any idea of the stretch of time it would take' In the meantime, how will people survive the effects with minimal effects' Can they roll out these safety nets first and lets see if/how they will work before moving to the subsidy'More curiously, the governments position is that it would use the funds generated from the subsidy removal to make infrastructure available to the people with long term benefits. It sounds mouth-watering but since independence, Nigeria has never actively planned for the future beyond its national budget which almost never fails to fall short of its budgeted potential. So, how can a country that cannot plan beyond a year, plan effectively for a brighter future where there would be no subsidy but plenty of money' When did Nigeria become so advanced that it is going to take such a major decision without an elaborate plan of how it is supposed to work out for the people beyond the governments promises of infrastructure' For instance, they promise to build hospitals but how many hospitals does Nigeria need presently and how will these generated funds ensure the establishment of more hospitals' How long will it take and will the funding come solely from subsidy' Where would they be built and at what cost' Would they be sustained from the money from subsidy removal or would there be a national health care plan somewhere in the offing' What happens when expenditure meets up with income' And, were similar promises on the eve of the debt relief gain in 2006 ever fulfilled' From the look of things, it appears the government plans to string things along as they come.Also, how does this mega plan that they need money from fuel subsidy removal to execute build up to other national development plans like Vision 2020 or does it stand on its own'If the planned removal fails to achieve its target, is there a backup plan and what is it' If the refineries would start working in two years as the Minister of Petroleum Resources promised, why the urgency to remove fuel subsidy then' Why not take it gradually'The arguments for the removal of subsidy are strong and convincing in some respects. What I fear is the shoddiness with which the plans would be executed. There is no evidence that much thoroughness or rigour is applied into the system. Another fear is the resolve that there is no other way than fuel subsidy removal. Any path that does not have an alternative is not likely to be a good path to tread in the first instance. All the presidents men insist on this road. The 36 governorsapart from Adams Oshiomhole who flip-flops on the issue (understandably, since he is facing an election)unanimously insist it is the only way. These governors from five different political parties sleep and face the same direction; that says something about opposition government in Nigeria.The National Economic Council also announced the same sentiment about subsidy removal. From the side of the government and their people, there seems to be this closed-mindedness that refuses to explore an alternative. If the best they can come up with is to echo the Presidents position, whats even the point of their existence'I believe Jonathans government should tread cautiously and eschew stubbornness. Subsidy removal should not be forced on the people. If the leaders of Nigeria think they can take a decision and dare the peoples reaction, I have this proverb for them: The day the god begins to overreach himself, we will show him the tree from which it is carved.A revolution is the people against their leaders and no leader should ever wish for it. A leader exists for the people and not the other way round. If in doubt, ask Muammar Ghaddafi of Libya who called his people rats.
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