The forthcoming race for the Sokoto State gubernatorial seat throws up many issues transcending the state and having robust impacts on the North Western region and national politics in its entirety. Regional Editor, Olawale Rasheed, examines the complexity and dimensions of the race in the seat of the Caliphate.The forthcoming gubernatorial election in Sokoto State is like the race in Kogi State in view of its geopolitical significance. The intrusion into the stronghold of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is heightening in the North West geopolitical zone, with the caliphate states made up of Sokoto, Zamfara and Kebbi states as the new focal points in the anti-PDP struggle spearheaded by the Action Congress of Nigeria in the South and the duo of Congress for Progressive Change and the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) in the North.While the various contenders in Sokoto PDP are at each other's throat, the opposition is angling for advantage and openings to further widen their intrusion into areas considered PDP strongholds. In this battle of wits, the opposition may have strong points. The first is that the three caliphate states were opposition states as at 1999.In 1999, the ANPP, peopled by the core North indeed dominated the two Islamic centres of the North namely the caliphate and the Borno axis. The ANPP not only cleared the Caliphate states but also won in Borno and Yobe states. That domination was maintained until the countdown to the 2007 polls, when the PDP made it a priority to control these two strong Islamic and political axis of the federation. The party succeeded in the caliphate, but the Borno axis proved unconquerable as the ANPP remains in control of the two states till date.Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara states were under the ANPP until the 2007 polls when the PDP won Sokoto and Kebbi. The ANPP governor of Zamfara, after the 2007 polls, pulled out of the party and joined the PDP, thereby transforming the entire caliphate zone into a PDP territory. The PDP victory was, however, a troubled one as the opposition never gave the ruling party any breathing space since then.The second argument of the opposition is that the takeover of the three states was more a product of manipulations rather than electoral choices of the people. This point was strongly followed up by the opposition, leading to the famous arrested judgment of the Appeal Court. That crisis was at the root of the feud between Justices Ayo Salami and Katsina Alu.As though the opposition had a valid point, the 2011 elections saw the opposition ANPP regaining Zamfara even though the PDP candidate was able to establish a prima facie case against the winner. In Kebbi, the PDP victory was nullified by the opposition with an order for a new poll. The PDP is at the Appeal Court on the two states.The 2011 elections saw the opposition making fresh inroads into an area they felt they lost in 2007 out of electoral irregularities. If by the 2011 polls, PDP had two out of the three states in the zone, one has been nullified while Sokoto is now up for grabs in view of the deep- seated rivalry among the PDP contenders. In the case of Kebbi, if a re-run is ordered, many analysts still see it as a blow to the PDP which has to contend with an energized opposition upsurge in the zone. For Zamfara State, taking it back seemed a tall order because of the attitude of the Presidency to the political situation in the zone.The caliphate has always been a problem zone for the PDP. Incidentally; it was also a sore point for the defunct Social Democratic Party. Some observers of Caliphate politics at Usman Dan Fodio University see the trend as a way of telling the nation of its continuous allegiance to political conservatism. By shielding itself from the general political trends in the country, the caliphate, they believe, is bent on preserving its core ideology of religious conservatism.In the subsisting situation, the PDP appears to have fallen short of meeting their expectations even after alleged forceful takeover in 2007. This trend appears to account for the sudden resurgence of the CPC in the core North in the last polls. Reports indicate that the greatest danger to the PDP in the caliphate is the CPC which is now seen as embodying the political aspiration of the core north in the face of recent political developments in the country.Against the background of Sokoto PDP politics, the CPC is said to be re-grouping to cash in on the feud within the PDP. Already, the main problem of the PDP in Kebbi state is the CPC. Analysts from the state noted that in the last polls, CPC clearly had the advantage, a position the tribunal seemed to have validated by nullifying PDP's victory in the state. If a rerun is to hold in Kebbi, many observers see the PDP as a weak contender for the governorship. In the case of Zamfara, if the Appeal Court nullifies the election of the ANPP governor, observers see the possibility of a re-run which may eventually make the entire caliphate district a zone for grabs in bye ' elections.The feud among contenders for the Sokoto governorship thus has ramifications beyond the state. All genuine observers accept the fact that the CPC, and to some extent, the ANPP are potent opponents of the PDP in the countdown to 2015. As noted by observers within the Gamji establishment, the CPC is evolving in a more dreadful way than what the PDP contended with in the last polls. 'The ongoing internal restructuring within the party threatens to make it a more formidable foe of the PDP in the future,' said an academic from Kaduna state.'In the last poll, the CPC proved its strength across the North. Its inability to manage its mass appeal accounted for its failure. But this is what the party is correcting now while the PDP is busy fighting itself. In the governorship poll in Sokoto, the real threat to the PDP is the CPC,' the observer stated.In the ensuing face off within the Sokoto PDP, unconfirmed reports indicated that the incumbent may secure the PDP governorship ticket but will face a stiff challenge from the opposition parties. This is especially so as the ghost of 2007 polls is still hunting the PDP with opposition allegations of judicial robbery. If the last election was a narrow win for the PDP when the party was closely united, analysts are worried that the outcome of the poll at a time the party is now weakened and divided may be unpredictable.Other watchers of events in the zone however, noted that the PDP has an advantage due to the antecedent of the incumbent governor. When the ANPP was in charge of the caliphate zone from 1999 to 2007, the Sokoto governor was a deputy governor to the then governor Attahiru Bafarawa. By the time he moved into the PDP in 2007, Governor Wamako was with the links and affiliations of the ANPP.This connection is, however, a double edged sword for the governor now. For one, some analysts believe that the governor has more than two legs and could muster support from across the parties even if there are irreconcilable differences with his challengers in the PDP.This reasoning was however faulted by those who felt that such link failed the PDP in the last poll, hence the embarrassment the party suffered.The other side of it all is that those who regard themselves as the original PDP members are unhappy with the governor for appearing to favor his former ANPP colleagues. This extends beyond Sokoto to Kebbi and Zamfara where the Sokoto governor was fingered as sponsoring ANPP political aspirations. The allegations, if proved, may have warranted the opposition of some PDP presidential hopefuls against Wamako's return to the Government House.Insider sources noted that the ANPP linkage may have unwittingly dragged Wamakko into PDP presidential politics. For example, the loss of Zamfara was a sore point that is still fresh in the minds of many party bigwigs. Zamfara is the home to the former National Security Adviser, Mohammed Gusau, a presidential contender. Interestingly, the defeated governor of the state whom Wamakko allegedly worked against has direct connections to three former presidential contenders. Memuda Shinkafi, the defeated Zamfara governor is an in-law of Generals Gusau and Ibrahim Babangida. He is also the immediate younger brother of the former security chief, Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi,a presidential aspirant. If there are revenge actions against the Sokoto governor, observers may count it as a payback period.The battle for the soul of the caliphate is, however, on course with an intensity which is more than the Kogi political war. The difference from the Kogi confrontation was that the inter-state connection and external presidential relationship was not as pronounced as what we have in Sokoto now. There are however ramifications for the 2015 polls.The PDP victory in Kogi stopped the rampaging north ward expansion of the A C N, thereby nullifying the predictions of a crippled PDP in the North Central region. For the Sokoto axis, the situation is not that simplistic as three states are involved in a zone traditionally known for its conservatism.The PDP in the zone is facing a three pronged war which it can only win if united on all fronts. The reality is that any victory that goes to the ANPP is even more strategically correct for the PDP than any that goes to the CPC. As things stands, ANPP is already controlling one of the three with a reported alliance with the CPC. For Kebbi, the CPC got the PDP victory annulled and is hoping for a re-run against the PDP.For Sokoto, the real opposition is the CPC even as the former governor Bafarawa is reported to be planning to go back to the ANPP ahead of the election.The reality is that if the PDP should fail in Sokoto, it is as good as losing the Caliphate as subsequently; it is doubtful whether Kebbi can stand. A loss of the caliphate when taken alongside the opposition control of the Borno axis would mark the reverting to the 1999 situation. The other PDP states in the core north will then be surrounded by opposition states, thereby presenting a challenging scenario for the ruling party in 2015.If PDP however retains Sokoto and wards off the CPC in Kebbi and ANPP in Zamfara, the party can then still lay claim to the core north. Still basking in the euphoria of its victory in Kogi, PDP chiefs are optimistic of another victory in Sokoto though there is an admission of a great challenge ahead if such is to be a reality.As the situation stands now, the field appears to be open to all.
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