On Monday, December 5, 2011, ex-President, General Olusegun Obasanjo, warned the President Goodluck Jonathan government to beware of an Arab Spring experience in Nigeria. The former President and Nigerias most powerful political godfather detonated this bomb at a workshop on Economic diversification and revenue generation, held at the June 12 Cultural Centre in Abeokuta, Ogun State.Obasanjo also noted that unemployment could trigger off an Arab Spring experience in Nigeria. He decried the soaring rate of unemployment which he said could be stemmed if we develop the agriculture sector. "It doesnt matter which way you look at it today, people are now talking of Arab Spring," he enthused.How times change. So the former President now listens to Nigerians and with all he has heard warns of fatal consequences should the government fail to provide vital infrastructural facilities for the nations economic take-off. This coming from an Obasanjo who famously warned his then advisers that he wasnt obliged to take their advice! Yet, the Nigerian tax payers bore the burden of paying them billions of naira for doing what only their employer knows!Even if Nigerians are talking about the Arab Spring experience, when did the former President become the Chief Spokesman for Nigerians' When did he become the mouthpiece of the Nigerian masses' Did unemployment fare better during his eight years as a civilian and three years as a military head of state' When the National Directorate of Employment was enmeshed in corruption during his administration, what did Obasanjo do to check it' Instead, he looked the other way and today, the NDE has remained another meaningless nomenclature in the nations tortuous journey to economic El Dorado.The former President ruled Nigeria like a military despot, even in a so-called democracy; while government parastatals and properties were auctioned off without regard to due process, propriety, prudence and discipline. The National Assembly has since saddled itself with the task of cleaning up the privatisation books.While the Obasanjo administration lasted, Nigeria witnessed strange feudalistic and traditional ideologies which made it mandatory for him to appoint his ministers and political advisers from well established and popular family lineages, never mind that Nigeria does not belong to a set of chosen and anointed families. Yet, Nigeria needs patriotic, dedicated and committed ministers and advisers chosen on well established democratic norms of performance and commitment, rather than bogus traditional family lineage.The seed of todays unemployment was sown several years ago. The foundation for a vibrant economy was not laid by all our past leaders, including Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo who had one of the greatest opportunities to do so but allowed it to slip by.It is on record that the Obasanjo government wasted $16bn on electricity generation and distribution, such that, by the time he left office in 2007, Nigeria was generating only 2,000 megawatts of electricity for a population of 140 million people. South Africa, with a population of 45 million people generates almost 5,0000MW of electricity via a revolutionary energy technology called the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor, which she has even sold to countries outside Africa. The late President Umaru YarAdua, in December 2007, promised to declare a state of emergency in the energy and power sector because, according to him, "Power was the tonic for industrial growth that can get Nigeria out of its economic predicament." In other words, our leaders know the importance of energy and power to national development!In so many ways, Nigerias past leaders had benefited from the electricity crisis. A former special adviser in January 2009 disclosed that the "Federal Government has uncovered a strong cabal sabotaging electricity in Nigeria and that it benefits this strong cabal for the power sector to malfunction." The cabal has continued to wax strong, nevertheless.Unemployment figures are getting worse because industries are either relocating to Ghana or closing shop. For instance, in Kano State alone, 86 factories were reportedly shut down between 2009 and 2010. For the same period, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria figures show that 834 industrial firms closed shop throughout the federation, thereby wiping out a total of 830,000 jobs. Again, over 30,000 bank jobs disappeared with the restructuring of the banking sector around the same period.Truly, Nigerias unemployment rates are mind-boggling. America felt very uncomfortable when its unemployment rate neared the double digits. For instance, in July 2011, Americas unemployment rate was 9.2 and it hovered between 9 and 9.7 per cent, forcing President Barack Obama to propose a $446bn stimulus package to buoy the American economy to give a boost to the American people. On December 13, 2011, the American Federal Reserve had a hectic deliberation and passed a vote of confidence on the American economy, describing it as "expanding moderately."Nigerias unemployment figure for 2009 is 19.7 per cent; and for 2010, it was 21.1 per cent. Up till October 2011, it was 23.9 per cent. Meanwhile, 41 per cent of our university and polytechnic graduates are unemployed. While conceding that our unemployment rate is alarming, burdensome and almost unmanageable, the Arab Spring revolution which the former President alludes to is not the answer. Even the brightest and most powerful clairvoyant cannot foretell how an Arab Spring will end in Nigeria. You do not need any prophet or star gazer to tell you that a Nigerian Arab Spring will be decisively bloody, and will present a golden platform for Nigerias impoverished and marginalised minorities to vent intra-ethnic animosities that have been bottled-up for so many decades.In my view, Obasanjo could have made his contributions at the forum without any reference to an Arab Spring. Nanaghan, public affairs analyst, wrote vide bennanaghan@yahoo.com
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