The self-immolation of a graduate Tunisian street trader triggered off what eventually became known as the Arab spring. When the death of the street trader sparked off riots in Tunisia, many Arabs including the outside world were taken aback by the sudden turn of events. Politically the Arabs have caught the image of a docile people incapable of protesting against their governments.The proponents of that docility point to the sit-tight syndrome of the rulers in that part of the world. Even when the wind of democracy was blowing across other parts of the world the Arab world remained in blissful isolation. None of the 22-nation Arab league can be described as a democracy.The overthrow of the Tunisian President, Ben Ali changed the stereotype about Arab docility. The world was happy to see Tunisia embark on a democratic transformation. Events in Egypt are proving that that country is incapable of replicating the successes recorded in Tunisia.The Egyptian protesters could not force President Mubarak to leave office until the military came to their aid. The military withdrew their backing for the President and demanded his resignation.Though Mubarak and two of his sons have been brought to trial on corruption charges it would be foolhardy to expect the military to go further in the humiliation of one of their own. The parliamentary election which they conducted was no more than a cosmetic palliative to assuage the feelings of the Egyptian protesters.The parliamentary election established the political supremacy of the Islamists over other organizations in Egypt. The generals who eased Hosni Mubarak out of office were thus given the clear signal that if presidential elections were to go ahead an Islamists' candidate would likely emerge victorious.For a good part of the tenure of President Hosni Mubarak his energy was directed at stifling the political emergence of the Muslim brotherhood. In spite of the unrelenting suppression of the Islamists, their resilience ensured that they remained the only rallying point for those opposed to the Egyptian government. The Egyptian military shared Mubarak's abhorrence of the ideology of the Islamists. They both see the Islamist as zealots who if given access to power, could plunge the country into deep religious crisis.Good students of history would recall that President Hosni Mubarak was not different from Anwar Sadat and Gamal Abdel Nasser who were his immediate predecessors. They all shed their uniform after gaining power.In essence Egypt had been under military rule since 1953 when Colonel Abdel Nasser staged his coup. It is thus inconceivable that the military would voluntarily take its hands off the levers of power after being firmly in the saddle for almost 60 years. Two generations of Egyptians have not known any truly civilian or democratic rule.If the Egyptian military were to truly encourage a democratic revolution that would be the crowning glory of the Egyptian revolution.But the military as an institution is not by its nature revolutionary. Don't mind the occasional revolutionary chants whenever they intrude into governance. It was often a charade and a smokescreen to deceive the people into according them legitimacy. Once legitimacy was obtained the military reverted to the status quo which they overthrew.Take the example of Syria whose military rulers under the leadership of Haafez Assad established a monarchy. Power passed from father to son. Libya's attempt to found another monarchy was ruined by the uprising that led to the death of Ghaddafi and two of his sons. Mubarak's dynastic ambitions were similarly ruined by the protesters who pushed the hands of the military to ease him out of office.The Egyptian military that ostensibly aided the revolutionary course also holds the cards in efforts to abort the revolution. The military's designs to truncate the revolution are being aided by the inability of the February protest movement to transform into a grassroot organization capable of mobilizing for votes and evolving structures for governance. By their structure and resilience the Islamists are the only organization destined to reap immense benefits if the revolution culminates in democratic elections. The military don't want the Islamists in power. The western countries don't want the Islamists in power. The only alternative is for the military to make a mockery of any presidential election and put its own stooge in power. That is the only alternative to having an Islamist government whose religious zealotry can never be moderated if given the opportunity to ascend to power.
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