FOR the past week ' from Monday, January 9, 2012 - the government of President Goodluck Jonathan went through a crucible of fire, literally, as the Nigerian people rose, as one, to oppose the imposition of over 100 percent price increase on petrol under the euphemism of 'Deregulation'. The people spoke, loud and clear, that government is their agent and therefore cannot ignore the Will of the people.In the first place, 'Deregulation' is a misnomer since no industry exists that does not have a regulator or regulation. What is being touted as deregulation is more of liberalization or opening up of the downstream sector of the oil industry. That is the first fallacy.While the Jonathan presidency has not demonstrated any dynamic resoluteness on pressing issues of national insecurity and endemic corruption, both of which have practically brought the nation to its knees, it suddenly found its rhythm in ramming down a pauperizing fuel price increase on the already over-burdened populace. It would seem that people in government arrogate to themselves the monopoly of patriotism while perceiving the rest of society as ill-informed agitators. As noted by Prof. Herbert Gans, people in power view 'organized lobbying and the formation of pressure groups on behalf of citizens' self-interest as suspect' as is the case with government perception of the labour movement on this fuel subsidy saga.However, what I find amazing in the petrol subsidy crisis is the level of obduracy in pushing the petrol 'subsidy' removal agenda based on ill-digested rationalization, anchored on dubious 'facts'. Some experts have debunked subsidy on petrol, insisting that at its pump price of N65 per litre, people are already paying about 91 percent over its cost price.In the past week when the people were at the barricades to assert their supremacy, government agents have launched a propaganda blitz to confuse the issue, lacing their presentations with exaggerated dividends of the expected savings. They also inject scare-mongering ' that the economy is headed for collapse.Equally amazing is the lack of originality or creativeness in articulating their campaign of the inevitability of 'deregulation' of the downstream sector of the oil industry. How the egg-heads in the cabinet ' the Ph.Ds and Professors ' have failed to philosophize and profess fresh thoughts can only possibly be explained by the deadening effects of political sedation arising from their political romance ! They have all been parroting the same trite lines on deregulation from over a decade ago ' that fuel subsidy only benefits the rich and that the windfall will be invested principally in infrastructure, health and agriculture. This was the same argument canvassed by Rasheed Gbadamosi, former chairman of Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency, (PPPRA) Funsho Kupolokun, former Group Managing Director of Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and Dr. Oluwole Oluleye, Former Executive Secretary of PPPRA in their book ' A STORY OF THE DEREGULATION OF THE NIGERIAN Downstream Oil Sector' published in 2007 where they argued in favour of deregulation, on page 95, that 'there is no equity in this subsidy arrangement since the elite consume more petroleum products than the masses ' who commute in public transportation; it is the affluent that have chains of vehicles and power their homes with generators that run on petroleum products'. On page 56, the authors had noted : 'government resources previously used for subsidizing petroleum products will be freed to undertake construction of good roads, clinics, hospitals, schools and provision of good drinking water'. Those were 2007 promises being recycled, verbatim, in 2012 !Now, if the elite power their houses and gadgets with generators which consume petroleum products, is that not failure of public electricity supply which the poor also suffer ' To downplay 'poor' people's consumption is a measure of policy makers disconnection with the masses if they fail to realize that the hair dresser, the tailor, the radio/TV technician, the welder, the soft drink seller and other artisans need generator and therefore consume petroleum products for their various vocations. They also need generator to power the fans in their homes.Although deregulation apologists, Gbadamosi and co. showed intellectual honesty by admitting that 'the debate on deregulation goes beyond economics and politics; it touches the very heart of social living' and that people's opposition is based on the fact the over 10 petroleum product price hikes since 1973 have only led to their 'worsening living standard'. They also, unwittingly, provide the justification for people's rejection of fuel subsidy removal.It all boils down to government's lack of credibility with and alienation from the people.Gbadamosi et al had further noted : 'Governments have often claimed that the savings to be made from subsidy removal will be spent on areas such as education, health, transport and other infrastructure. The problem, however, is that the citizens are not convinced by such arguments and ask where the so-called investments government promised to make with the subsidy over the years have gone'.According to Gbadamosi and co. the liberalization failures and its worsening state 'is a strong indication that the liberalization policies were founded on contradictions which showed patent misunderstanding of the weakness of the economy', adding that 'there is no hope of cure when the diagnosis is wrong'. The diagnosis, even today, continues to be wrong.Rather than tackle the endemic corruption and inefficiencies in the system, successive governments have embraced two puerile options ' either passing the burden to the people through price increases or throwing money at problems by creating additional bureaucracies. This was why, for instance, police corruption and inefficiency have spawned three additional bureaucracies ' the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC).The Economist in its October 16, 2003 edition reinforced this notion of corruption with funds, noting that 'Nigerians suspect the government's motives (on deregulation) and doubt that the money saved will be put to good use'. Finance minister, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala apparently discountenances this credibility liability as she trots around Water Resources minister, Sarah Ochekpe and minister of state for the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Oloye Jumoke Akinjide on the subsidy removal defence circuit.President Jonathan is attempting to cash an unearned credit through propaganda by appealing to that over-used gimmick of 'I am just an ordinary folk like you' who deserve to be given the benefit of the doubt. The people are saying his credit balance is in the RED !Even Dr. Okonjo-Iweala is in denial because she recognized that financial indiscipline, which breeds corruption, is a major albatross of the reform agenda. In the Global Economic Governance Annual Lecture she delivered at Oxford University on May 27, 2005 on the topic : 'Managing the Challenges of Economic Reform in a Global Context : The case of Nigeria', she had among others, suggested 'the overhaul of public expenditure management system and introduction of fiscal discipline'. Has these prerequisites been met 'In 1986, the Ibrahim Babangida regime and its apologists had similarly fixatedly touted the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) and devaluation of the naira as the panacea for Nigeria's socio-economic ills. Now, 21 years after, as at 2007, Gbadamosi and Co, apologists for another economic panacea in the form of deregulation of the downstream oil sector had derisively dismissed that misadventure. ' The argument became an uproar that the naira had become over-valued, and so must be devalued. The economic sorcerers had their way, so the naira was devalued several times over'the economy went into chronic depression and enthroned poverty in most homes'. Today a new set of economic sorcerers are on the prowl, determined to have their way, and bringing the argument to an uproar that oil subsidy is unsustainable.The lamentation, in 2003, of Dr. Edmund Daukoru, a former minister of petroleum resources, should be sobering as the clamour for deregulation reaches a din : 'We never seem to get it right. Something always seems to be missing between government policies, implementation and public expectation.. .. As a result, we stagger from one confrontation to the next'. The missing link is lack of government transparency.Chip Cummins, writing in the Wall Street Journal of April 13, 2005 had noted the rampage and freewheeling bunkering going on in the oil industry in the Niger Delta that robs the nation of about 10 percent of oil production. He observed: 'But, as is well understood, the powers behind these activities operate beyond the law; and unless there is political will to root out the sabotage, the nation would continue to bleed'. The bleeding continues, unabated. Yet, the government cannot muster the political will to root out the sabotage. The government, it seems, would rather tolerate the 'cabal' as it calls them and take the whip to the people.I will conclude with a quote from Gbadamosi and co. on the need for comprehensive, as against ad hoc, piecemeal economic policy : 'It is obvious the solution to the challenges of the oil industry does not lie within the industry alone. To be worthwhile, the solution must tend to the macroeconomy comprehensively. It must be consistent and pragmatic because the people have suffered much under economic experimentation that ended up making everything worse'. I rest my case.Olawunmi is a Lecturer, Department of Mass Communication, Bowen University, Iwo. Osun State and former Washington Correspondent of the News Agency of Nigeria.
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