Northern Bureau Chief, Hassan Ibrahim, takes a look at the North-West zone and how the major political parties are intensifying the struggle for dominance within the zone in the presidential election.WITH its population and size, the North-West geopolitical zone occupies a central position in Nigerian politics. President Goodluck Jonathan was right when he described the North-West as the political hub of the country, which has about 25 per cent of the population. Nobody can afford to play with the zone. No wonder then that the major political parties in the country, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Congress for Progressive Change(CPC),the All Nigeria Peoples Party(ANPP) and the Action Congress of Nigeria(ACN) are all working hard in the zone and appear not ready to give any breathing space to one another.The states of Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Jigawa, Sokoto and Zamfara, which make up the zone, will determine who leads the nation after the election. Currently, apart from Kano State which is under the control of the ANPP, all the other states are under the PDP, making the zone a stronghold of the ruling party. However, the strength of the party varies from state to state within the zone, a fact that has continued to make pundits give all kinds of predictions as to how the parties might fare during the forthcoming elections.In Kaduna State, for instance, the PDP has remained focused and resolute, realising the strategic importance of the state to the region and country in general. Since the advent of this democratic dispensation in 1999, Kaduna has been a PDP state and does not appear to be complacent or ready to allow power to slip away. The party had ensured internal cohesion and through the several committees it had formed in recent times, it seemed to have pacified all aggrieved members who are now collectively working for the success of the PDP in all elections.Hitherto, opposition parties in the state were hopeful of capitalising on the perceived cracks within the party in Kaduna State, especially the much publicised political feud between the camp of Senator Ahmed Makarfi and that of Vice-President Namadi Sambo. Now, the issue has been resolved and the incumbent state governor who is working hard to succeed himself in office, Mr. Patrick Ibrahim Yakowa, is a favorite of all the various camps and has been accepted and endorsed in several fora by party chieftains who had earlier been associated with either of the two camps.Furthermore, the governor and his campaign team are unrelenting in traversing the nooks and crannies of the state to meet the people and seek their support ahead of the elections, a feat which, many said, has remained unbeaten by other political parties in the state. Many observers have also given credit to the PDP in Kaduna for upholding internal democracy and propagating its ideals devoid of ethnic or religious sentiments. The unprecedented number of party supporters who normally gather at PDP functions, especially when the president is in the state, has always been a source of worry to opposition political parties in the state.Although the parties have continued to boast of how prepared they are to wrest power from the PDP in the state, people are yet to see any solid preparation to that effect on their part. Instead, they have continued to be enmeshed in one internal crises or the other to the advantage of the PDP which has been receiving defectors into its fold. Similarly, highly resourceful individuals such as Dr Edward Gamba who of late came all the way from the UK and officially joined the party in Kaduna together with his associates, have boosted the partys profile in Kaduna State.The CPC should have been a formidable opponent to the PDP in Kaduna because of the popularity of its presidential candidate among the peasants. But series of litigations emanating from its party members who feel shortchanged, make the party less attractive for now, as victims and their loyalists are weighing other options before the D-day.The ANPP, many have observed, has lost its flare in the state. This was evident when its presidential candidate visited the state capital last week. The reception even among the party faithful was not encouraging and its campaign activities are not fully felt in the state capital let alone the local government areas in the state. The once second most vibrant party in the state is gradually giving way and as an analyst has observed, has not given a sign of regaining its past glory even as election has started.The problems in the ACN in Kaduna State is similar to that of the CPC. Recently, a case of alleged violent act against a female member of the party has attracted lots of negative comments on the party, thus making it to be less attractive, especially amongst the womenfolk who saw a fellow woman battered simply because of her desire to exercise her franchise on the platform of the ACN in the state. The gubernatorial candidate of the party is still grappling for consolidation within the ACN, as he too was a late arrival into the party, after having been denied the ticket in the CPC.In Katsina State, the CPC should have been the strongest party in the state with its presidential candidate, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), being an indigene of the state. But internal wrangling continues to affect the progress of the party in the state, leaving the PDP to continue to maintain the lead. This, coupled with the developmental projects that were executed by the PDP government across Katsina State, will surely make the party a hard nut to crack in the ongoing elections.The problem of the CPC in Katsina and Kano are virtually the same. Presidential candidate of the CPC, Muhammadu Buhari, who was in Kano for the North-West state-by-state presidential campaign, refused to raise the hands of either the INEC-recognised Mohammed Abacha or the party- recognised Brigadier-General Lawal Jafaru Isa(rtd) as the partys gubernatorial candidate in the state.Buhari said he would not raise the hands of the CPC governorship candidate in the state when he paid a courtesy visit to the Emir of Kano, Alhaji Ado Bayero, in his palace. I wont raise the hands of our CPC governorship candidate in Kano and Katsina as I do wherever I go for campaign. This is because of the pending court cases surrounding the partys primaries in the two states. This is seriously affecting the party, especially now that the presidential election is just around the corner.The four major political parties are very visible in Kano State. In the ruling ANPP, a former local government commissioner, Malam Sagir Takai, emerged the gubernatorial candidate, while Dr. Musa Kwankwaso, a former governor, clinched the PDPs ticket for the race.The incumbent deputy governor, Engr. Abdullahi Tijjani Gwarzo, is to fly the flag of ACN and Alhaji Mohammed Abacha, son of the former military leader, General Sani Abacha, is, all other things being equal, the candidate of the CPC.The PDP in the state is waxing stronger with Kwankwaso, but the increasing influence of the incumbent governor, Mallam Shekarau, some have said, might work for the ANPP s candidate owing to the fact that his boss, Shekarau, has performed well as governor during the last eight years, with numerous projects executed across the state.But Kwankaso has continued to be a crowd-puller and with his Kwankwasiya political movement within the Kano PDP, a movement that is carrying the political landscape in Kano by a storm, the PDP cannot just be wished away. The incumbent deputy governor of the state, Engr. Abdullahi Tijjani Gwarzo, is the governorship candidate of ACN and flying the flag of the party across the state. But analysts observe that the activities of the other major parties have, for now, overshadowed the ACN in Kano State.Zamfara, pundits have said, is currently in the firm grip of the ruling PDP and the people are mobilising support for the governor who they said, has brought real development in all parts of the state. This is contrary to what happened during the previous ANPP government where party faithful were said to have been empowered by the then administration with public funds, negating overall development. The ANPP, CPC and ACN are quite visible, but their activities and support, they said, could pose no threat to the PDP during the elections.In neighbouring Sokoto State, the PDP is in control and even the candidates of the other major political parties are alleged to be working for the ruling party. Recently, 11 out of the 16 cleared gubernatorial candidates in the state declared support for the incumbent state governor, a development which indicated that the coast is now very clear for the PDP in the seat of the Caliphate.The CPC, now leading other opposition parties in Sokoto State, would have to redouble its effort and have twice the number of its current supporters to succeed. ACN was newly introduced in the state by former governor, Attahiru Bafarawa, and has no time to consolidate and pose the right challenge to the ruling PDP.The ANPP, once the ruling party in Sokoto State and in all the Caliphate states, an analyst has said, is currently struggling for recognition with very weak structures that could hardly pose any threat to the ruling party in the state.Although only 8 out of over 50 registered political parties in Jigawa State have gubernatorial candidates according to the INEC, only four gubernatorial candidates appear to be serious and are campaigning seriously for the presidential poll. Reports from the state indicate contest is between the PDP and the ANPP.Pundits say the contest among all the political parties in the state would be very keen as all the parties are relatively, popular in the state. However, the PDP gubernatorial candidate and incumbent governor, Alhaji Sule Lamido, has done so much within the past four years and that is working for him, ahead of the other contenders for the number one seat in the state.Unlike the previous administration, reports have it that Lamido impacted positively on the social and economic lives of the people through various development policies and programmes in all all parts of the state .Lamido has also adopted a strategy of reaching the people on one-on-one basis through local groupings and unions. This has made the PDP in Jigawa State much more attractive in recent times, and could boost its chances during the coming election.The ANPP is also visible in Jigawa State but its candidate is accused of being for the elite only, a fact that is making the party less attractive to the majority.The CPC in the state heavily relies on the popularity of Buhari, but the candidate has no appeal amongst the people while the ACN candidate was considered a close ally of the former governor, Saminu Turaki, who they alleged, underdeveloped the state in spite of all the money allocate to the rural state while he was governor. Another problem of the ACN in Jigawa is Lamidos incumbency and the ACN candidate, Badaru, is not known by most people across the state.Like in the other states, only four political parties could be easily identified in Kebbi State. The PDP,ANPP, CPC and ACN. The ANPP remains dormant in the state as most of its activities are silent, while most of its members have moved to the PDP, ACN and CPC. As such, the party does not have the required number of supporters that could ensure success in the coming elections.The ruling PDP in Kebbi state is the party to beat because of its achievements in the recent past. However, Alhaji Abdullahi Zuru,the Special Adviser to Alhaji Abubakar Gari Mallam,the CPCs gubernatorial candidate in the state ,said CPC would win all elections in the state because of the overwhelming support they are enjoying from the generality of the Kebbi people.He said the reception CPC had in all the local government areas in Kebbi State was enough for it to win elections landslide because Adamu Aliero, leader of the CPC in Kebbi, had improved the socio-economic wellbeing of the Kebbi people during his eight years as governor of the state and as Minister of the FCT.But with good organisation and solid political structures in most of the North-West states, opinion tilts in favour of the PDP which, many have said, could coast home to victory in a clean contest any day.
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