With the seeming helplessness of the security outfits to combat the increasing threats to safety of life and property, especially as typified by the renewed Boko Haram insurgency, Assistant Editor, Dapo Falade, examines the fears being expressed in some quarters as regards the continued existence of the Nigerian State.INDUBITABLY, the Nigerian State is undergoing what could be described as the greatest threat to its existence as an indivisible entity. It is also a fact that several of its statesmen have had cause, on several occasions, to refer to it as 'an artificial creation of the British Imperialist', 'a mere accident of history' and 'a mere geographical expression'. However, besides the civil war era (1967-70), it is not in doubt that the foundation of the country has never been shaken to its roots until recent times, with many people, both within and without, daily questioning the rationale behind its continued existence.While it is a truism that the country has had its fair share of socio-economic violence, political upheavals and religious uprisings over the years, the fact is that the increasing threat to national security and safety of life and property assumed a heightened dimension in recent years, such that belief is gradually giving way to sceptism about the oneness of the country. It was probably in the light of the pervading threat to national security, aided by the increasing profile of the dreaded Northern-based Islamic fundamentalist group, Boko Haram, that the government of the United States of America (USA), in a survey sometime last year, came up with the damning revelation that, with the contrasting trajectories across the polity, the Nigerian nation might eventually break up in 2015.Of course, the US security report was taken by Nigerians with mixed feelings. While many, particularly those who have come to be seen and regarded as opposing the present administration, opined that the report should not be treated with levity or be dismissed with a wave of the hand, several others were of the view that the US prophecy would not come into fulfillment in Nigeria. Those in the latter group were of the conviction that the inherent factors that led to the fall and disintegration of former great countries like the USSR, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia could not be found in Nigeria. They were particularly of the strong view that, though made up of several contending ethnic nationalities, the country is blessed with its peculiar unity in diversity; a factor which they submitted would continue to aid its existence as one indivisible nation. Not quite a few Nigerians were then in alignment with the motto of the defunct Second Republic political party, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) namely, 'One Nation, One Destiny'.However, the strong optimism about the oneness of the country is gradually giving way to unexpressed pessimism in the face of recent happenings across the land, particularly the northern part. The reality today is that even the layman is beginning to question the continued existence of the country. While it is a fact that contemporary Nigeria is confronted by myriads of problems, including the monster called corruption, failing national economic growth and development, decaying infrastructure and increasing joblessness among the teeming youths, the greatest threat facing the Nigerian people today is the fear of possible disintegration, occasioned by the pervading air of insecurity, as particularly felt in most of the northern parts of the country.Of all the security problems facing the country, the fear of members of the dreaded Boko Haram sect has turned out to be the beginning of wisdom for virtually all Nigerians. Even the nation's political numero uno, President Goodluck Jonathan, is not hiding this fact and he is not leaving anyone in doubt that the activities of this notorious terrorist group constituted the greatest threat to his administration. While the reconciliatory moves of the president have been meeting the brick wall, the nation's security apparatus has not been demonstrating enough capacity and ability to curtail the disturbing insurgency of these modern-day jihadists.While the activities of the sect had been on for some time, the Boko Haram group did not gain national ascendancy or constitute national security problem until early 2009 when the police authorities decided to summarily execute the leader of the group, Muhammed Yusuf, who was arrested and handed over to the police by men and operatives of the Nigerian Army's Joint Task Force. Apparently seeking to avenge the death of their leader, Yusuf's followers began a series of reprisal attacks on most of the police formations in some part of the North.However, what seemingly started out as a revenge mission had since assumed a frightening dimension, with many analysts and laymen alike coming to the conclusion that members of the Boko Haram sect are, indeed, a set of people deliberately trained and sponsored by some powerful elements in the country to bring about the dismemberment of the country and thus bring to fulfillment the US prediction concerning the disintegration of the country. More importantly, it is becoming more worrisome that this group had foreign collaborators, given their high-level training and modes of operation which have continued to beat the nation's security system.While it may not be necessary recalling here all the violent activities of the dreaded sect, it may be important to note that the bombings of the Louis Edet Force Headquarters in Abuja, the United Nations Building, also in Abuja, the Christmas Day bombing of St Theresa's Catholic Church, Madalla, Niger State, which led to the death of over 40 people and last week's bombing of the ancient city of Kano, which resulted in the death of close to 200 people, with several others nursing various degrees of injuries, it may not be out of place to say that the Boko Haram force is hell-bent on fanning the embers of disunity in the country. The operational mode of the sect is also a source of worry for discerning minds and analysts alike.Undoubtedly, operatives of the dreaded sect have, for reasons best known to them, limited their activities to the northern parts of the country, particularly Borno, Niger, Plateau, Adamawa and recently, Kano states. In addition, besides the attack on the Catholic Church at Madalla, the Islamic extremists have been giving the impression that they were out to wage a war on some 'sinful' Muslim faithful. This has made some people to come to the hasty conclusion that the Boko Haram sect is fighting neither a religious nor sectional war.Whichever way one looks at it, the insurgency of this dreaded sect has some undertones which are inimical to the continued existence of the country. That the group is being sponsored by some powerful individuals both within and outside the country cannot be denied. President Jonathan himself testified to this fact when he admitted that members of the sect had infiltrated his government and identifying them is a very difficult task. He went further to say, last week, that the sect was operating in collaboration with some other jihadist groups outside the country. This conspiracy theory, as propounded by the president, is further attenuated by this simple poser raised by an analyst that, how can a car, loaded with bombs and other explosives, be taken through numerous checkpoints under the nose of armed policemen without being checked or detected'More importantly, unfolding developments in the wake of the renewed Boko Haram insurgency are ominous signs posing a grave danger to the Nigerian State. Kabiru Umar (aka Kabiru Sokoto), a suspected ring-leader of the group, was recently arrested by some vigilant security personnel who had been on his trail for some time. Unfortunately, it remains a national embarrassment that such a high profile individual escaped under the eyes of more than 10 policemen who were taking him to Abaji, a border town between Abuja and Lokoja in Kogi State.While the incident led to the ignominious dismissal of Alhaji Hafiz Ringim as the Inspector General of Police and the dismissal and detention Zakari Biu, a Commissioner of Police under whose command the escape was made possible, questions are still being asked about the circumstances surrounding the escape of the suspected Boko Haram leader, the obvious questions being, how could it have been possible for an individual, who was said to be in chains and heavily guarded, to make good his escape' How did the 'mob' that freed him from the hands of the police officers get to know that he was being brought to Abaji at that point in time'Curiously, some people are of the opinion that it was beyond a mere coincidence that some prominent northern leaders are now finding their voices in condemning the dastardly acts of the Islamic fundamentalists. It was not funny that while other parts of the country were in unison in condemning this group, even at the early stages of their activities, most of the leaders in the North, where the attacks were more incessant and deadly, maintained a stony silence. However, they are now waking up from their slumber to raise their voices against the sect after the whole world had condemned the insurgency.When former President Olusegun Obasanjo took a bold initiative to visit the Boko Haram leaders in their enclave in Maiduguri, the Borno State capital, last September, not quite a few of the northern leaders were against the move. While a few saw the initiative as being patriotic, several others went to the extreme, calling the former president names, as they even claimed that his mission was not altruistic but borne out of an alleged selfish desire to take the shine off the Jonathan presidency and also downplay the ability of the president and the nation's security agents to combat and tame the menace of the extremist jihadists. It became more intriguing that some of the northern leaders are against the present stance of President Jonathan in his quest to curtail the members of the sect and bring them to justice. The president had, last week, while talking about the possibility of entering into dialogue with them, challenged them to come into the open and reveal their identity. Also as a bold step towards checkmating this people, and in the light of the apparent failure of the security apparels to live up to expectations, the Federal Government had talked about the possibility of inviting the western powers to help quell the menace. While some of these Western countries, like the United States of America (USA), have offered to assist, some of these prominent northern leaders are condemning such an initiative. For example, an elder statesman, Alhaji Shetiff Ali Moguno, was reported to have cautioned Jonathan against signing any defence pact with the US. Rather, he was said to have advised that government should enter into dialogue with the militant group.This latter-day dialogue posture of the northern leaders has been interpreted in some quarters as a subtle move to hide the identity of those forces behind the insurgency, as well as a way to avoid bringing such people to justice. This fear was further accentuated by the warning handed over to the president by the Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant-General Azubuike Ihejirika, that the government should not contemplate entering into dialogue with the group.Undoubtedly and quite expectedly, the pervading air of insecurity in the polity, as heightened by the Boko Haram insurgency, has led many Nigerians to reopen discussions on the necessity for the convocation of a Sovereign National Conference (SNC) to discuss the continued existence of the country as one entity. As usual, of course, the necessity or otherwise of a SNC remains a subject of controversy as many people are divided over the matter. Many of its proponents, including the Nobel Laureate, Professor Wole Soyinka, are of the strong conviction that failure to have such a conference would inevitably lead to the dismemberment of the country. On the other hand, some other people, like a former National Vice-Chairman (South-West) of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Shuaib Oyedokun, differed, arguing that there was no need for such a conference. Speaking in an interview with Nigerian Tribune after the maiden meeting of the South-West/South-South Forum at Ikenne, Ogun State last week, the PDP chieftain was of the opinion that the legislature, particularly at the federal level, if they ably performed their legislative responsibilities, should rather make such a call unnecessary.Oyedokun said, 'We should rather have what I would call a national convergence wherein we should be discussing common inclinations towards building a stronger and virile nation. I think we have come to a stage in our national life when we should be amending our political dictionary to read the act of seeing conferences as carrying together rather than as carrying go on individualistic selfish interests. We should also start to assign reasoning faculty to our past experiences and glean from them, certain lessons that are capable of moving us forward, instead of festering on sentiments.'While many Nigerians are in tune with the US prediction that Nigeria may break up in 2015, many others are of the opinion that such a thing can never happen. But in the face of the untamed activities of the Boko Haram insurgents, can the affirmation of Alhaji Oyedokun, 'If we go back in history, there have been occasions when advanced nations gave up on us totally, believing that we have gone beyond the point of being redeemed, but somehow we bounced back', offer enough safety net against a possible dismemberment of the country
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