Never in the political history of Nigeria has the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), under Professor Attahiru Jega, shown maturity and sagacity to put a permanent stop to all forms of electoral fraud as witnessed in the 2003/2007 general election.It is on record that the 2003/2007 general election was massively rigged by the party that was in government, at both the Federal and state level, with the tacit connivance of the Nigeria Police. It is an open secret that a few members of the Nigeria Police did connive at electoral fraud. A few of them who were on duty on election days received bribe from agents of ruling parties in various states.To authenticate my write-up, ex-President Umaru YarAdua of blessed memory, confessed at various fora, that the election that brought him to political power as president, was fraught with election malpractices ranging from assassination of perceived opponents, rigging devices of various dimensions like snatching of ballot boxes, falsification of election results at collation centres, announcement of unauthenticated election results etc.The conduct and style of administration of the former INEC boss Prof. Maurice Iwu left much to be desired. It was a great disappointment to the Nigerian public and his colleague in our tertiary institutions, that he failed to give Nigerians credible election. He was found wanting in all the steps he took to conduct a credible election.The electoral reforms have successfully put on hold the different tactics employed by political parties to rig previous elections.My dramatic foreshadow on the 2011 electionsAspirants to political offices have over-shot their expenses on billboards, T-shirt, posters, donation of bags of rice etc. to placate members of their parties.The perception of aspirants about various political posts clearly shows that no amount of electoral guidelines or electoral law can stop, reduce or disallow the occurrence of political violence in the conduct of elections at various levels. However, I make bold to say that it is only the Presidential election that will be hitch-free. Other elections will be marred with unmitigated violence of various dimensions. I do not need to be a soothsayer before coming to this conclusion.The following factors that should be addressed before, during and after the elections are reasons for a likely outbreak of political violence in Nigeria. Any act of thuggery, intimidation by supporters of political aspirants should be thoroughly investigated. If it is a fact that the aspirant did sponsor thugs to unleash terror on an opponent, such aspirant should be charged to court and, if found guilty, should be jailed as deterrent to others.On the day of each election, apart from the Presidential election, where Jonathan has been favoured by over 40 million youths casting their votes for him, all other elections from Senate to the state Houses of Assembly are likely to witness some degree of violence because no aspirant would want to lose after having spent millions of naira to scale through the primaries.At every point, Civil Defence, Police, Road Safety Corps, Army and a few customs men etc, should man various places so that none of them will have overriding influence on others.The just concluded primaries by political parties is a sure indication that the elections proper would not be smooth sailing for the following reasons:Some aspirants sold their property to contest the primaries in their political parties; some were sponsored by their closest friends with millions of naira only to discover that their sponsored candidates did not scale the hurdle; some overshot their expenses to the extent that nothing is left for their families to live on. Those who could not bear the huge loss, developed hypertension leading to stroke and instant death. There was the case of a Nigerian London-based, who sponsored his friend for the primaries with N25 million. The sponsored candidate lost while the sponsor died the third day after the result of the primaries.Given the above, it is apparent that the battle is now set for the final onslaught of the contest. All contestants will see themselves as winners in the final contest. All known methods to win election by the aspirants would be put in place, with various rigging devices, assassination of opponents, etc. We should not rule out connivance with the law enforcement agents, especially the police, to perfect some malpractices that will favour a particular candidate, through the use of dangerous weapons e.g. guns, cudgels cutlasses, charms and thugs, all of which cannot be totally eliminated from the election days.Since nobody wants to lose in the contest, the aforementioned unethical behaviours would feature prominently. Any man of God who professes free and fair election, and that the election will be peaceful is kidding. And if the above do not occur before, during and after the elections, (except that of the Presidential race, I will commit suicide).Chief Ogunbanjo (MFR), is the CEO of Minimum Comfort for All Nigerians, (08072716332).
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