1.The Colour of PredictionsJulius Caesar was warned to beware of the Ides of March. But might be because of the so called flaw in a hero's character, he ignored the warning to his own peril. In Africa, desperate people, like the politicians, believe and rely much on soothsayers and prophets sometimes to their own peril. The implication here is that, there may be, after all, something in soothsaying.But generally most people prefer to be guided by some wise African sayings instead of holding on to soothsaying. In Nigeria, for instance, to avert a coming disaster we are guided by the story of the wise cripple who does not allow himself to be consumed in war he knows is in the making, while in Ghana, for you to face challenges, you are warned that 'you can blame a man for pushing you down but you have yourself to blame for refusing to get up'. Not to assume that everybody is a friend the Malawi people say 'if you think everyone is good, you haven't met everyone', while the Zambian, drawing from past experiences, will warn 'that a man whose father was killed by a red animal will flee when he sees an anthill'.The Lugard Amalgamation of Nigeria will be 100years in 2014. Thereafter another journey of a century, another milestone (good or bad), will start from 2015. But from USA has come a prediction of doom for Nigeria as from then. What a bad centenary birthday message and what an ominous coincidence! But do we just take everything as soothsaying or do we bend down to address the likelihood of the reality of the situation' With the background of events unfolding themselves in the country, how do we arrest the Armageddon'If the US government had actually said Nigeria would break up in 2015 that would obviously have been taken as a declaration of war on Nigeria. But because of her economic interests in Nigeria and for diplomatic finesse, her citizens (as said by Ambassador McCulley) had made the predictions, assumably for an official denial or some play on words or equivocation or some quibbling to follow. This was my reading of what the American envoy said in Ibadan sometime early in Feb. 2012:'US Government did not predict Nigeria's break up by 2015,' the US Ambassador to Nigeria Mr. Terence McCulley was alleged to have said while delivering a lecture entitled 'Good Governance in the Ibadan American Corner, Jericho Ibadan sometime early in February 2012, but by 'US citizens who had either served in Nigeria at one time or the other or US based analysts'.But while denying this, he went to say that the 'US Government had been horrified with the terror situation in Nigeria, especially with the level of recent attacks' in some parts of the country and as a palliative added that 'the US is prepared to help Nigeria in tackling the security challenges'. Thus while distancing the 'US Government from the allegation, he was in another breath speaking like one of the American nationals he was defending and condemning Nigeria for her 'extremist ideologies' and to prevent any untowardly consequences warning Nigeria to 'create an enabling environment, create jobs' while 'corruption' which was a serious challenge should be tackled.From The Friday Edition of Nigeria Tribune (Feb. 10, 2012) we also have the story, of an Houston Texas US based Security website, Stratford Global Intelligence, predicting in Jan. 2012 post on, a worsening of the security problem in Northern Nigeria in 2012:'Nigeria will see sustained militant violence in its northern region. Aggrieved political elites in the North believed the government of President Jonathan stole political power in the 2015 national elections by providing the group with arms and funding, while protecting it politically.''On the Niger Delta, Stratfor foresaw a renewed agitation from militants, proved more by politics rather than regional demands from economic and environmental justice.' 'Like their peers in northern Nigeria, political elites in the Niger Delta region, including Jonathan, will start reactivating alliances with regional militant groups such as the movement for the emancipation of the Niger Delta MEND'Although it is still difficult to catch red handed any of the northern politicians using the Boko Haram for this purpose or to finger President Jonathan's link with the alleged activities of the MEND, one thing that is clear is that some of these predictions are already being manifested, and so should not be dismissed with a wave of the hand.2.Why the prediction'One may ask what indeed is wrong with the polity to warrant such a bad wish. Or put in another way, why has such an ominous prediction been made about Nigeria' If indeed there are problems, what should be done to stop or arrest it'Undoubtedly we know that:-Our economy has been in disarray-Corruption has reached the highest level in the land-Unemployment, especially of millions of graduates and other able bodied, is on the increase- Our electoral system has been very faulty and anything but transparent-Education has been in shambles and to add to the long list of decadence and woes-A rising insecurity in the land, and the helplessness of the security agents in tackling it.The problems are not new. We are not in short of solutions, either. But the political will to tackle them has not been there. For some time now, it has been said loud and clear by eminent and concerned Nigerians, at home and in the diaspora, that the root cause of the problem is our departure from the true federal system which we once adopted to greet advantages and the presidential system which is virtually destroying the land. It is equally argued that if we adopt a true federal system it will:-address the economy-reduce the level of corruption-address unemployment-make elections more transparent-create atmosphere for quality education for all the citizens-reduce religious intolerance and engender national cohesion and integration; and very importantly-bring back security of life and property to the land. to be continued'Arogbofa is a Social critic, Political analyst and Literary Critic. He wrote in from Akure
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