The Texas Longhorns and No. 24 Oklahoma State Cowboys open up their Big 12 schedules in Austin this Saturday needing wins for much different reasons.Following a cakewalk nonconference schedule, the Pokes are out to prove they belong in the Big 12 conversation. Quarterback Mason Rudolph has picked up right where he left off last season, ranking in the top-15 nationally in nearly every relevant passing category, per cfbstats.com. The Cowboys' official Twitter account also noted Rudolph's national ranking:Coupled with a defense that boasts some disruptive talent, this is a team ready for some national recognition.It's been a much more eventful nonconference slate for the Horns, who have suffered two very different losses to Notre Dame and California. Charlie Strong's team was totally lifeless in a 38-3 opening loss to the Irish, forcing him to change both his play-caller and quarterback in a seemingly desperate move.Two weeks later, and it's looking like a decision that will alter the Big 12 season. Redshirt freshman Jerrod Heard has led the Longhorns to back-to-back 40-point outings in a win over Rice and that heartbreaking loss to the Golden Bears.The latter performance also put the dual-threat quarterback into the school's record books, as Christian Corona noted:Heard provides hope, but the Longhorns are desperate to avoid a 1-3 start. On the other side, the Pokes are trying to play spoiler to Baylor and TCU in the conference title race. Who will prevail in Austin'When Oklahoma St. Has the BallRudolph's the most important player on the Oklahoma State offense. But if you've watched Texas over the past three games, you know exactly how the Pokes are going to attack the Longhorns defense.Kudos to OSU offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich for refusing to provide bulletin-board material when speaking to the media on Monday:[The Longhorns] do a lot of good things on defense. They run defend really well, have some good young talent with some experience blended in as well. Physically, the fronts are big, strong and they give you multiple looks and coverages. Because of that, we'll have to prepare well this week and get ready for what they have to bring on Saturday.That's being exceedingly kind to Vance Bedford's defense. The Horns are giving up over 240 yards per game on the ground at a 4.78 per-carry clip and were gashed for 280 by Cal's backups. That kept Jared Goff comfortable for much of the night, especially during the Bear's 21-point third quarter.There are plenty of numbers that illustrate the Horns' struggles, but the reasons are simple. As Horns Digest's Dan Neil notes, Texas' problems can be almost entirely chalked up to gap discipline and missed tackles. Every interior lineman not named Hassan Ridgeway is getting blown off the line, and the back seven have been unable to clean it up.That spells a big day for emerging star Chris Carson, who eased his way to a 100-yard, two-touchdown day in the win over UTSA. Feeding the JUCO transfer will be a focal point early to set up one-on-ones for Rudolph on the outside. If the sophomore gets that, he's going to have a field day.Also, don't be surprised to see J.W. Walsh get some extra work in this one. He's seen at least three carries as a Wildcat quarterback, and Texas' struggles with dual threats have shown up in each game this season.This matchup's X-factor is whether the Horns can rediscover their cohesion from their last quarter of football. Poona Ford, Peter Jinkens and Tank Jackson mentioned that shut-out frameon Tuesday as a turning point and something they'll try to build upon.It could have been a product of Cal letting up, but we'll see which version of that unit shows up on Saturday.When Texas Has the BallThe Jerrod Heard era is in full swing for Texas, and this offense is his show until further notice.Whether he's running or throwing, Heard has been a revelation for the Longhorns attack. His 12.7 yards per passing attempt would be tops in the nation by a mile right now, and he's only 40 yards off the Big 12 rushing lead, despite playing only two full games. He's a true dual threat, and he's only going to get better. Heard gave Coach Strong a scoring assurance prior to the team's final drive, according to Chuck Carlton of the Dallas Morning News:But the most impressive part about Heard is his approach. He never panicked against Cal after his two turnovers, and neither did he seem rushed when making the comeback attempt. He kept making the right play, and he's earned the entire program's trust because of it.However, this is a completely different level of defense than what Heard has seen these last two weeks. Led by Emmanuel Ogbah and Jordan Sterns, the Cowboys already have nine sacks and 25 tackles for loss, the latter of which leads the Big 12.Of course, the difference here is that the Pokes have been feasting on the likes of Central Michigan, Central Arkansas and UTSA. They've yet to deal with a team with real speed, and Heard's just the tip of the iceberg.The Horns already have three players with catches of 35 yards or greater, led by three from freshman John Burt. He, Daje Johnson and Armanti Foreman will have to keep making the defense pay for focusing on Heard's running for Texas to keep piling on the points.Key Player for Oklahoma State: DE Emmanuel OgbahTexas players, coaches and fans were upset when Ogbah beat out Malcom Brown for Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors last season. This would be a good time for him to prove them wrong. The Okie Pokie was impressed with Ogbah's performance:It's looked better since Heard took over, but Texas' offensive line remains the weakest link on that side of the ball. The Horns start two true freshmen in Connor Williams and Patrick Vahe, while incumbents Taylor Doyle and Sedrick Flowers have really struggled, as noted by 247Sports' Bobby Burton.Expected to match up against Williams, the Pokes' redshirt junior has to lead the effort in keeping Heard contained. They've got to take away his escape lanes and force him to make reads downfield by coming after him without overpursuing.Ogbah can facilitate that by staying active and forcing the Horns to send help his way. If he dominates, the Longhorns offense should come back to earth.Key Players for Texas:The Defensive LineNobody's more important to this team than Heard, and he's given every indication he's going to be ready to roll every time he takes the field. He allays any concerns about the offense as long as he's out there.The defense is another story, as stated above. This group is giving up too much of just about everything you can imagine, and the problems with simple execution don't seem to be getting any better.Much of this is understandable. The Longhorns lost Quandre Diggs, Jordan Hicks, Steve Edmond and Mykkele Thompson along the back seven, where they've been replaced by freshmen and/or career backups.But the defensive line has no excuse. Even without Malcom Brown and Cedric Reed, this unit returned nine guys with playing experience, including last year's breakout star Ridgeway. Even Strong, a certified defensive guru, expected great things from this groupin fall practice:We have a good mix at the defensive front. I was teasing [DL coach] Brick [Haley] the other day. I said, my God, we have 12 or 13 guys that can go in the game and play and be effective playing where they run out there. You don't say, "Oh, who are we putting in'"Ridgeway and Tank Jackson might be nursing injuries, but it's time for this group to step up. These guys have to do their job against an offense as balanced as Oklahoma State's.Prediction: Texas 42, Oklahoma State 38Texas found something against Cal last week.It wasn't just Heard, a defense that stepped up in the last quarter or a home crowd that's finally waking up from a six-year hibernation. This team has gone from getting absolutely crushed on national television to keeping pace with a good, veteran team led by one of the nation's best quarterbacks.In the first, second and fourth quarter, Texas outscored the Bears 44-24, outgained them 573-343 and won the turnover battle 2-1. This young team lost the game because of one awful quarter and still did (almost) enough to force overtime.That showing did a lot for this team's confidence, especially because Heard's teammates believe he can go get a win for them. And before you think the redshirt freshman's overrated, note that the advanced stats back up what you're seeing on the highlight reel (via ESPN's Jake Trotter):At home, with one of the better playmakers in the nation running the show, a more battle-tested team guts out the big conference win.Unless otherwise noted, all stats and information courtesy of cfbstats.com,TexasSports.com and OKState.com.
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