Abiodun Awolaja writes on the implications of Saturdays presidential election for the future of presidential politicking in the country.SATURDAYs presidential election marks a watershed in Nigerias political history. On May 29 this year, all other things being equal, Dr Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan will be sworn in as Nigerias fourth democratically elected president, his predecessors being Alhaji Shehu Shagari (1979-1983), Chief Olusegun Obasanjo (1999-2007) and Alhaji Umaru YarÁdua (2007-2010), whose deputy he (Jonathan) was before his (YarÁduas) demise after a protracted illness in May, 2010.Among other unique features, this years presidential election is significant for the ethnic minority groupings in the country. The minority groups are, in Jonathan, producing a president and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 51 years after the countrys independence from Britain. Previously, during military rule, they had produced a vice-president in person of Admiral Augustus Aikhomu, a beneficiary of the demotion of Commodore Ebitu Ukiwe, former vice-president who was forced out of office by General Ibrahim Babangida in 1986. Ukiwe, an Igbo man, was removed from office on account of opposition to him by powerful forces within the top echelon of the Armed Forces Ruling Council, notably among whom was General Sanni Abacha, the then Chief of Army Staff (COAS), who felt that Ukiwe was too junior in rank to occupy the post of vice-president, and who had always undermined his office without prejudice to the feeling of marginalisation by his Igbo majority ethnic nationality.Indeed, the minority groups in the country, whether in the North or South, have always had cause to be apprehensive in the nations scheme of things, so much so that even in textbooks, the fear of ethnic dominance by minority groups is often typically listed among the challenges to Nigerias federalism. As late as 1999, minority groups in the North had cause to be apprehensive when some powerful members of the northern oligarchy vehemently objected to the appointment, by Chief Obasanjo, of those they termed non-core northerners, as service chiefs for the countrys armed forces.These group of northern irredentists, who succeeded in finally severing what little cohesion existed between the ethnic minority groupings in the North ( Jukun, Angas, Tarok, Idoma, etc) and their Hausa-Fulani overlords, opened another chapter in minority-majority relations in the country. The northern minority groups expressed wonder at the realisation that people like Lieutenant-General Victor Malu (Benue State) and Admiral Ibrahi Ogohi (Kogi State) could be regarded as second class northerners, a practice which the late Premier of the Northern Region, Alhaji Ahmadu Bello, was said to have always deplored.However, powerful northern politicians, who were of a nationalist bent, stood behind Dr Jonathan immediately after the demise of YarAdua, insisting that he must complete the tenure of the late gentleman president. In particular, personalities such as Isa Yuguda, the Bauchi State governor, Dr Dalhatu Tafida, former Senate leader; Governor Sule Lamido of Jigawa State, Governor Danjuma Goje of Gombe State, together with top members of the Middle Belt, the dominant ethnic minority region in the country, began clamouring for a Goodluck Jonathan presidency, which was not palatable to the Mallam Adamu Ciroma group of northern supremacists who insisted that a northerner must emerge president after YarAdua. The Jonathan cause immediately received widespread and fanatic acceptance among members of the Middle Belt, where the Senate President, David Mark, comes from.In particular, the Plateau State governor, Jonah David Jang, together with Chief Solomon Lar, elder statesman and pioneer national chairman of the PDP and many others, began rooting for Jonathan with seemingly fanatic passion. Jangs action may be seen in the context of the ethnic tension that has always characterised life in his home state of Plateau, where clashes over real estate are often disguised as religious crisis between the natives and the settler Hausa-Fulani nationality.Needless to say, the Jonathan project received fanatic acceptance among the minority groups in the southern part of the country, particularly the Niger Delta region. Furthermore, the presidents seemingly enthralling personality seemed to draw new disciples to his cause almost on a daily basis. Again, his recognition of the invaluable roles played by the sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo and visit to the Awolowo family home in Ikenne were seen by the Yoruba as an indication that he (Jonathan) could be a trusted ally. To the admiration of many, Jonathan named the Liberty Stadium built by the sage in Ibadan, after him. As the compatriots of the sage such as the late Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, pioneer Head of State and Alhaji Ahmadu Bello had had a similar honour done to them long in the past, Jonathans action was seen in very positive light by the people of the South-West geopolitical zone of the country, who are of the Yoruba ethnic stock.However, although the story of the Jonathan presidency is still being told, certain fundamental lessons have emerged which will significantly influence the future of presidential politicking in the country.Diminishing influence of core ethnic dominanceAmong other lessons, President Goodluck Jonathans victory at this months presidential election serves to underscore the gradual ascent of equity and ethnic balancing in Nigerias presidential politicking. It used to be the case that whoever was not supported by the core Northern oligarchy could not make the Nigerian presidency, no matter how acceptable he was to other regions of the country. It is also clear that Nigerian have begun to think beyond ethnic boundaries in choosing the president. The kind of politics pursued by the Ciroma group, which was reportedly played out, even in last minute talks with proponents of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) alliance to stop Jonathan, would seem to have become very unpopular among critical stakeholders in the country.Thus, if the gains of the present situation are not reversed, it may well signal the potentiality of Nigeria to join the league of elite democracies across the world.Already, international observers have commended the conduct of the ongoing general election by the Professor Attahiru Jega-led Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).The sitting presidents body languageFor whatever it is worth, Jegas successful conduct of the polls so far suggests that the attitude of a sitting president to the electoral process will always influence both the conduct and outcome of elections in the country.In contrast to the often vilified do-or-die posturing of former President Obasanjo during the build up to the 2003 presidential election, President Jonathan repeatedly stressed that nobody should rig on his behalf. Again, while the CPC presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, was encouraging his supporters to kill whoever rigged their votes, Jonathan was busy stressing the fact that his presidential ambition, or that of any other politician, was not worth the blood of any Nigerian.Although the presidents victory sparked off protests and mindless destruction by Buharis supporters in the northern states on Monday, this was not due to any fault of the president.Role of the armed forcesOne of the most potent lessons of Saturdays presidential election is that the nation cannot conduct successful elections without the positive participation of the armed forces. Although the armed forces participated in previous elections in the current Republic, it was often alleged that they were not neutral in their roles during the election. They were often accused of aiding and abetting politicians in the election rigging process. However, none of these allegations has surfaced in the ongoing general election.Among other factors, the shoot-on-sight war declared on troublemakers by the Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant-General Azubuike Ihejirika, seemed to have driven fears into political thugs across the country.For instance, the unusually heavy presence of Nigerian Army personnel in potentially volatile areas across the country seemed to have forced a born-again posture on political thugs across the country on election day. Yet, the election showed that the armed forces could be civil. However, there have been political clashes on the eve of elections across the country. Among many other acts of violence, the INEC office in Suleja, Niger State, was bombed by arsonists yet to be apprehended, while persons suspected to be ACN thugs launched a pre-dawn attack on their PDP counterparts in Ilare-Ijesa and other parts of Osun State. In the same vein, persons suspected to be PDP thugs invaded the house of an House of Representatives aspirant in Ile-Ife on the eve of the National Assembly election and killed five persons.
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