As we close in on Friday's USjobs report, Wall Street's top economistsare weighing in withtheir expectations for payroll growth and the unemployment rate.The consensus expectation is for the economy to have added 182,000 jobs in October, bringing the unemployment rate down to 5.0% from 5.1% in September.In recent months, the US economy has been defined by two stories: 1) deterioration in industries exposed to slowing overseas economies and falling commodity prices, and 2) growth in industries exposed to the healthy US consumer.A proxy for this story has been the divergence in the ISM manufacturing and services indices, the former being more exposed to overseas activity whereas the latter is more exposed to domestic activity. Economists expect this theme to be reflected in the jobs report."In manufacturing, the ISMs employment index has deteriorated in recent months; while the non-manufacturing ISM survey suggests a more elevated level of hiring," BNP Paribas economists said. "We see little reason for this to change significantly this month."This upcoming jobs report has alsotaken on increasing importance asit is one of the central components to the Federal Reserve's decision whether or not to raise interest rates at its upcoming December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.A rate hike in December would signal the end of extremely loose, crisis-era, zero-interest rate policy, which the Fed introduced in December 2008 in its effort to stimulate the economy out of the the financial crisis.We rounded up what 21economists are saying ahead of Friday's report.Check out all the forecasts below.Paul Mortimer-Lee, BNP ParibasNon-Farm Payroll Gains:150,000Unemployment Rate:5.1%Comment: "Our below-consensus forecast is well-placed given the downside risks presented by seasonal trends, a typical seasonally-adjusted print for October (relative to August and September), the soft end to Q3, and the likely composition of hiring (weak external-facing and soft domestic-facing)."Ethan Harris, Bank of America-Merrill LynchNon-Farm Payroll Gains:150,000Unemployment Rate:5.1%Comment: "There should be weakness in the manufacturing industry, as evidenced by the early regional surveys, and mining jobs likely continued to contract amid low energy prices. On the upside, construction and service jobs should show further growth owing to healthy housing and consumer demand supporting these sectors. There have been consistently strong gains in government payrolls over the last four months heading into the new school year, so we may see some payback this month leading to a drag on overall nonfarm payrolls."Scott Brown, Raymond JamesNon-Farm Payroll Gains:155,000Unemployment Rate:5.1%Comment: "Im at +155,000, but wouldnt be surprised to see anything between +100,000 and +250,000. The numbers are reported accurate to 105,000 (if the true change were +180,000, a 90% confidence interval would be +75,000 to +285,000). In addition to statistical noise, there is seasonal adjustment uncertainty (start of the school year, end of the summer travel season). We can expect to have added about a million jobs in October prior to seasonal adjustmentso its a bit silly to worry about the nearest 20,000 or 30,000 in the adjusted figure. A lot of month-to-month noise can be reduced by looking at the three-month average, but the financial markets will focus on the headline payroll figure. Theres a good chance for a surprise and we could see revisions.The Federal Reserve is not going to react to any one piece of economic data, and there will be another employment report in four weeks, but the message from the Fed (FOMC policy statement, Yellen comments) is that a December rate hike is likely unless the economic data are significantly softer than expected."See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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