BY Tuesday, next week, Nigerians will once again go out to elect their state governors. This election presents very high stakes in states, because of the proximity of the process to the grassroots people.I am particularly interested in the election in three states-Kwara, Bauchi and Katsina- because three senators, whose activities I cover in the National Assembly, are involved in the battle for the coveted position.Interestingly, in the three states, these federal legislators are committed to upsetting the applecart of incumbent governors and political shenanigans that have, for years, been nurtured by state funds. But the task, no doubt, appears onerous.In Kwara, Senator Gbemisola Ruqqayah Saraki (GRS) is contesting on the platform of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN), a new party, promoted by her father, Dr Olusola Saraki (Oloye), who is the acclaimed godfather of Kwara politics.Senator Suleiman Nazif and Senator Garba Yakubu Lado are using the platforms of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in Bauchi and Katsina states respectively, for the election.Significantly, Nazif and Lado are confronting incumbent governors Isa Yuguda in Bauchi and Ibrahim Shema in Katsina, a development which may make the battle much more difficult for them in terms of precise prosecution.The incumbency factor does not, in any way, mean that Yuguda and Shema are invincible. In fact, the General Muhammadu Buharis opposition CPC, to which Lado belongs, has largely eroded the popularity of the PDP in Katsina. The same scenario is playing out in Bauchi.Although, Nazif is of the ANPP, to upstage Yuguda, he is banking on his popularity, the widespread anti-Yuguda sentiments and the support of his majority Bauchi North senatorial district, which chance of taking a shot at the governorship position is purportedly being usurped by Yugudas Bauchi South senatorial district, after Adamu Muazu also from Bauchi South had ruled the state for eight years.The snag that may count against Nazif is that the opposition camp is not confronting Yuguda with a unified front. Nazifs ANPP and the CPC candidate would have easily done a collateral damage to Yuguda if one has considered stepping down for the other.Is it too late to doBut the main focus of this piece is GRS, who is seeking to defeat Abdulfatah Ahmed of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the governorship election of Tuesday in Kwara.Ahmed of the PDP, who was until his emergence as governorship candidate was a commissioner in the state, is propped up by the incumbent Governor, Bukola Abubakar Saraki, who is Gbemisolas elder brother.Gbemisola, on the other hand, is banking on her goodwill, which she has cultivated in the last 12 years as a federal legislator; her fathers populism; solid political structure and over three decade eleemosynary to the downtrodden and the less privileged in Kwara.It is this popularity, as well as charity to the Kwara people, that makes the Tuesday governorship election in Kwara crucial. The deployment of government machine by Governor Saraki in support of the PDP candidate against Oloyes deployment of his political goodwill in support of his ACPN candidate (GRS) will define the contest.I believe it should be payback time for the Oloye. The majority of Kwara people, whose political ancestry interlocked with that of Oloye at a point or the other in the past, would passionately relate with his political interest which equates with GRS political interest in this governorship election.In essence, even though GRS is the ACPN standard bearer for the governorship election, it is Oloyes face that will loom large as Kwarans, whose lives and those of their relatives have been positively touched by him, troop out to cast their votes on Tuesday expectedly for GRS.I believe Kwarans will not turn their back on Oloye at this critical time when he so much needs them to successfully surmount the hurdle put before him by his son. I never conceived the scenario that is playing out in Kwara: That Governor Bukola Saraki would confront his father, the man who single-handedly made him governor in 2003. Oloye did so to stem the tide of betrayals which he suffered in the past from the hands of those he helped into office as governors. But it does seem he is now confronted with another variant betrayal by his son, even though some people try to rationalise the morality of Bukolas action.If it is immoral for Governor Saraki to allow his sister, GRS, to clinch the PDP governorship ticket to succeed him, where is the morality in Bukola clinching the Kwara Central Senatorial District ticket to replace GRS in the SenateNow that GRS holds the ACPN governorship ticket, the question of morality pales into insignificance in the face of rights of every Nigerian to aspire to any office, as long as he or she is constitutionally qualified.The reality is that on both sides, it is a proxy battle of sorts. GRS is her fathers battle axe against PDPs Ahmed, who is Governor Sarakis battle axe. But I do not have to be clairvoyant to know how my colleagues in the press will report the outcome of the governorship election.Consider: Oloye defeats son if GRS wins; Bukola demystifies father if Ahmed triumphs. All manner of headlines will be crafted in either case. Interestingly, indeed, wherever the pendulum of victory swings, Oloye will be the better for it, contrary to views in some circles that Oloye will be rubbished by his son.This is what I mean, if GRS wins, it will only prove that Oloye is the undisputed godfather of Kwara politics, who is very well on top of his game regardless of his age and failing health. If Ahmed wins, it means Bukola, who is a product of Oloyes political legerdemain, has emerged as the new political godfather in the step of his father, at least, within the PDP family.What this means is that Governor Saraki, who is naturally the scion of the Saraki political dynasty, will be able to fully assume the political leadership, having warded off a potentially formidable threat from within: Yes, from his sister, who has the capacity of replicating and sustaining the man-caring tradition of Oloye, which has sustained his political structure over the years.And this is the critical tonic that will be lacking in political machinery or arrangement under Bukolas suzerainty and the fear is that the structure may suffer rejection by instalments and the Saraki political dynasty may in the years ahead go into extinction like the dinosaur.But to save the Saraki political dynasty, I sincerely would appeal to Kwarans not to be distracted by the personality of Oloye and the antics of Governor Saraki so much so that they would not be able to take time to appreciate the qualities of an angel fully loaded in some human form-that is, GRS.Unlike many politicians whose stock in trade is to use and dump people around them, GRS has the rare attribute of touching base with those whose paths significantly cross hers. She does so passionately like her father. She does not find it difficult to relate with downtrodden in towns and villages in Kwara. This disposition has cast her in the mold of her father.In the House of Representatives and the Senate, there is an evident consensus of opinions that she was an affable and brilliant legislator. She took her legislative responsibility with all the seriousness it deserved. A ranking legislator, she proved her leadership abilities with the way and manner she ran the committees, especially Senate Committee on Marine Transport that she still chairs.Here is a woman whose cosmopolitan outlook and global view of politics and economy rank her as one of the very fecund legislators in the country. A graduate of Economics from the University of Sussex in England, her perspectives on the national economy are always sharp. Little wonder, for three consecutive years (2008,2009 and 2010), she was ranked Above Average (the highest mark) by THISDAY in its annual assessment of federal Legislators.GRS may somewhat reside in the political shadow of her father; she is certainly not in any form of intellectual cocoon. She has the capacity to hold her own in any challenging situation that requires political sagacity and administrative acumen.These are the qualities that GRS will deploy to advantage in the conscious effort to transform the political economy of Kwara State. Will Kwara people discountenance the antics of some politicians who are seeking to build a fiefdom for self-seeking purpose and vote to enthrone this humble, intelligent, people-caring and can-do woman of candourOjeifo is the Editor-in-Chief of Congresswatch, a magazine that reports activities of the Federal and State Legislatures.
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