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Challenges Before Hollande, France's New Helmsman

Published by Guardian on Sat, 19 May 2012


LAST week, urbane realist, Francois Hollande, was elected president of France.The Socialist leader won just under 52 per cent of votes in last Sunday's run-off election to defeat his Centre-right opponent and incumbent president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who is the first French president since 1981 to fail a second term bid.A major plank of Hollande's campaign to unseat Sarkozy was a trenchant call for the end of austerity. He contended that the interplay of economic growth and political realism demanded a more 'humane' approach to governance.When he assumes power on Tuesday (May 15), the French people, greater Europe and the rest of the world would be looking at how the new helmsman grapples with his vow to rework a deal on government debt in the eurozone member-countries to focus on promoting growth.He has promised to focus on what is being referred to as a financial transaction tax in the eurozone meant essentially to fund industrial-led growth, a renegotiation of the European Union's fiscal pact agreed to in last December.The so-called pact actually imposes overly tough fiscal constraints and European supervision on member state budgets in addition to the creation of eurobonds issued by the European Central Bank to mutualize EU's sovereign debt burdens.In his first major speech at the Bastille after his election, Hollande said his victory was a 'message for all the people of Europe who, regardless of their leaders, want an end to austerity.'What comes with victory' Hollande needed to guard his left-flank during the presidential campaign. Now his economic advisors have the chance to have a go at pragmatism as he sketches out a realisticEuropean agenda.This agenda for Europe, according to submissions made by former French finance minister and advisor to Hollande, Elisabeth Guigou, is to the effect rather than pursuing a burdensome renegotiation of the EU fiscal pact and eurobonds for mutualizing debt.Hollande mayseek to complement the pact with a jobs and growth protocol at the continental level. This will enable him push for the creation of European 'project bonds' designed to leverage private capital into much-needed European infrastructure and industrial investment projects. This vision has since been echoed by Annd Michel Sapin, another former finance minister advising Hollande, in an interview with The Financial Times.Well, this, according to prevailing thought, appears to be what Europe needs today: A pragmatic, progressive, pro-growth agenda to deal with the continent's slumping economies and government budget deficits.OUTSIDE Europe, there is not likely to be any major shift in Franco-Africa relations. The plan of engagement with Africa is well spelt out in the European Union (EU) agenda where France is the leading driver.Naturally, diplomatic watchers in Nigeria would want to puta finger on bilateral relations with France in the new time, to see whether the strategic relations that exist between the two countries would be strengthened in light of the new security challenges in Nigeria.In July last year, France offered a hand in the fight against terror as well as the heightening security hurdle in parts of the country. But France's ambassador to Nigeria then, Jean-Michel Dumond, said only little would be achieved in securing the Nigerian landscape if nothing was done to address the culture of impunity that pervades the country.'We know that the culture of impunity is one of the main causes of the violence in this country,' he said.At his country's National Day reception, where Dumond stressed Nigeria had all the potentials of becoming one of the first 20 economies of the world by the 2020, he announced the readiness of France to help Nigeria achieve the goal even as he acknowledged that there were many challenges to be resolved in order for collaborations to get far.As a new president comes on board in France, it must be borne in mind that commendable as it is, the cooperation between Paris and Abuja, particularly in the framework of the United Nations Security Council, needs to be raised to a higher level.The two countries have been working together in order to restore democracy in Guinea and Niger, to achieve respect of the will of the people in Cote d'Ivoire, to consolidate peace and stability in Africa.Former President Umar Yar'Adua visited Paris in June 2008 to endorse the start of a 'strategic relations' between the two countries. Since then, there was the visit to Nigeria of the French First Minister, Franois Fillon, in May 2009 and other high-level exchanges pointing at a desire to take economic relations to a higher level.Many in our clime would love Mr. Hollande to look Nigeria's way with a sharper telescope. Today, Nigeria is France's first economic partner in sub-Saharan Africa. Bilateral trade hit a new height in the first quarter of 2011. More than 100 French firms are working in Nigeria.BACK to issues revolving around world leaders. The election of Hollande compares to two historical precedents ' Barack Obama in 2008 and Francois Mitterrand, the first Socialist president of France, in 1981. Olaf Cramme at Policy Network, a London-based think tank, maintains in this regard that France could be at the very hub of modernising European social democracy.Whether the 'era of hope' that saw President Obama elected contrasts with the one of fear that defines the Hollande victory remains to be clearly seen. Much of Europe is back in recession; unemployment continues to grow, and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis seems to be spiraling out of control again.Yet, when Obama was elected, he, too, was faced with a dramatic economic crisis, a financial system on the brink of collapse, and rising unemployment. In 2008, just like today, it was the candidate and not the context that provided hope for a better future.Perhaps, the more telling comparison in the French context is with Mitterrand, until now the only Socialist president in France's history.Thirty-one years ago, Mitterrand defeated the incumbent centre-right president, Valery Giscard D'Estaing ' the last time an incumbent president seeking re-election was defeated.Like the loser in Sunday's election, Nicolas Sarkozy, Giscard D'Estaing had become increasingly unpopular with the French people ' not least because of his adherence to liberal laissez-faire economics. Like Hollande today, Mitterrand promised a change to the economic agenda.Hollande has called for a renegotiation of a hard-won European treaty on budget discipline championed by German Chancellor, Angela Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy.Merkel congratulated the president-elect by phone and invited him to Berlin to hold talks soon, but she warned the fiscal compact was 'not up for grabs.'After the euphoria of election night, it was back down to earth on Monday morning, as Hollande moved quickly on, to the business of preparing to govern. Over the next few days, he will be drawing up the list of names for his first government, which will take over after the handover of presidential power this week.This is crucial because Mr Hollande needs a parliamentary majority in order to see through his programme. At the moment, supporters of Mr Sarkozy dominate the assembly. Parliamentary elections like this that immediately follow presidential elections tend to deliver the head of state the majority he requires, but it is not a foregone conclusion; the next few weeks in France will see yet more passionate political campaigningThose concerned that Hollande's victory and forthcoming policy shifts in favour of economic growth over budget austerity might put financial market stability at risk may bemistaken in the end.The new French president is no ideologue. On the contrary, he is said to be a pragmatic progressive, who realises that austerity alone hasn't worked, and that what Europe needs is a realistic strategy for job creation and economic growth.Like President Obama four years ago, the expectations now resting on Hollande's shoulders are unrealistically high and extend well beyond his national borders. And like in 2008 change today will take time.But by focusing on progressive, pragmatic, pro-growth policies, Hollande 'has set out a realistic and achievable vision of the Europe we need,' according to a commentator.
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