THE governorship and State House of Assembly election in Benue State on April 26 would prove to be the most keenly contested in recent times in the state, provided a level playing field is ensured for the two major candidates -Governor Gabriel Suswam of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and Professor Steve Ugbah of the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN.The last Presidential election results in Benue State speak volumes about the waning popularity of the PDP under Suswam. The outcome has sent jitters down the spine of the Suswam Campaign group since the opposition presidential candidates had no campaign structures in Benue State and did not mobilise agents for the elections.Benue State Acting Police Commissioner, Sani Magaji said that the security of the governorship and State House of Assembly election would be challenging. He pointed out that the flashpoints would be Katsina Ala, Logo, Ukum, Guma, Kwande, Gwer, Gwer West and Tarka. He said that the police would work hard to check political thugs being used by politicians to subvert the electoral process.Incidentally, the local councils listed by the Police Commissioner are areas where the sanctity of the electoral process was allegedly compromised since April 9. Security in these communities is lax on election days. Results from these local councils are churned out in incredible figures that beat all logical reasoning.Victory at the governorship election would be determined by the political party that is able to effectively utilise its resources in the extreme rural communities of Benue State, where results are only released after the results of other urban centres are known at the collation centres.These local councils mentioned by the Commissioner of Police are known as the magic centres of Benue State Elections. Their results are usually delayed on account of terrain. Whenever they are eventually released, the results deal decisive blows on the electoral victory of the candidate leading at the urban centres.Political analysts believe that if the police are able to work alongside other security agencies to check the churning out of magic results from the councils already identified, the governorship election would be largely credible.At present, the police are investigating the mayhem visited on Mbawaa village in Awajir district of Konshisha local council by a former Senatorial aspirant after he razed down homes in the area following resistance from the community when he attempted to snatch ballot boxes.Addressing journalists in Makurdi on Thursday, Benue State Acting Police Commissioner, Sani Magaji stated that the police would fully investigate the actions of Mr. Byuan, a top politician and his armed policemen who attacked villagers and burnt houses.The police commissioner stated that all six policemen involved in the mayhem have been withdrawn to the Benue State Police Headquarters, where disciplinary action is being taken against them.Political violence engulfed Gboko town, the headquarters of Benue State as armed political thugs on Tuesday attempted to assassinate a former Gboko local council chairman and ACN leader, Simon Abua Yajir.Abua Yajir, a renowned critic of State Governor, Gabriel Suswam, was driving in a black Mercedes Benz car, and was waylaid by the thugs at the Bristow Roundabout, Gboko, where they dragged him out of the car and inflicted several machete cuts on him.As the armed thugs popularly called Red Caps dealt the machete cuts on the former chairman, residents raised alarm and they fled the scene.However, a police patrol team was alerted and the thugs were chased and arrested. They have been transferred to the Benue State Police Headquarters, Makurdi.After the failed assassination attempt, ACN supporters in Gboko town went on rampage, attacking suspected supporters of the PDP and relatives of the thugs belonging to the Red Cap in the area. Most PDP leaders fled Gboko to neighbouring towns. The most important factor that would determine the governorship election is the remnant of the National Assembly elections. INEC postponed the elections in Benue North West Senatorial District, Gwer/Gwer West Federal Constituency and Katsina Ala/Ukum/Logo.These constituencies fall under the zone of the magic results that define electoral contests in Benue State. Katsina Ala/Ukum/Logo, Gwer/Gwer West Federal Constituency and Kwande local council.Senator George Akume, who recently defected to the ACN from the PDP controls the political machine of the ACN in Benue State. His election comes on the same day with that of the governorship and his results are expected to play critical role in the outcome of the elections.Also in the Katsina Ala/Ukum/Logo Federal Constituency, former Benue State Speaker, Mzenda Iho will vie for the House of Representatives seat on the day of the governorship elections. Being a grassroots politician, Iho may completely change the equation. ACN members claim that the PDP had a field day during the Senate elections in Sankera because Ihos election was postponed. If Iho puts up a strong showing on April 26 election, then the PDP may win the high percentage of votes it scored in Sankera during the April 9 Senate election. If ACN wins up to 35 or 40percent of votes cast in Sankera Federal Constituency, then Suswams governorship may run into troubled waters.The reason is that Suswam is basically relying on Sankera and Idoma votes to win the elections at first ballot. In other areas, Suswam and Ugbah are struggling to drive home their advantage. Ugbahs core advantage lies in Benue North West Senatorial District where he expects the Akume factor to assist him clinch majority of votes.The Benue State Governorship election would be defined on Tuesday by the ability of any of the political parties to control the election elements. These elements include; control of security, movement of political thugs, relationship with electoral officers and the ability to delay the release of results in their sphere of influence within the state.The general political philosophy amongst Benue State politicians today is: a politician can only rig elections where he is popular and has control. The campaigns in the last three months have been defined by this philosophy. The two leading candidates have consulted mainly with groups and politicians with strong influence on the coercive machines of their various communities, without making any attempt for their campaign organisations to be involved in door-to-door campaigns. The people have not been included in the process leading to elections and they may not be considered no matter the outcome of the election.
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