The just concluded general election may have whittled down the influence of the South-West geopolitical zone in the ensuing political dispensation, as the zone will not have any representation in the six highest positions in the polity. Sulaimon Olanrewaju looks at the chances of the zone in retaining its relevance in national politics.The 1999 Constitution has made it mandatory that the six geopolitical zones in thecountry should be represented in the government of the federation for the purpose of national unity and national loyalty.This is what is referred to in the constitution as the federal character. According to Section 14(3) of the constitution, The composition of the government of the federation or any of its agencies and the conduct of its affairs shall be carried out in such a manner as to reflect the federal character of Nigeria and the need to promote national unity, and also to command national loyalty, thereby ensuring that there shall be no predominance of persons from a few state or from a few ethnic or other sectional groups in that government or in any of its agencies.Going by the dictates of the constitution, key offices in government, especially at the federal level, are ceded to different geopolitical zones. The South-West region has benefitted immensely from this arrangement in the last 12 years.Between 1999 and 2003, former President Olusegun Obasanjo represented the South-West in the federal government, this made the zone to occupy the highest office in the land. From 2007 to 2011, both Mrs Patricia Etteh and Mr Dimeji Bankole represented the zone at different times as Speaker of the House of Representatives, the fourth position in hierarchy.However, the trouncing of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidates in the South-West by opposition parties has placed the influence of the zone at the federal level in a precarious situation, since the zone did not produce the president-elect or the vice-president-elect and is without a hope of producing either the Senate President or the House of Representatives Speaker or even the deputies. This means that none of the first six top positions can come to the region in the new dispensation.Before the just concluded election, it was touted that the zone might be the one to produce the Senate President. Several currently serving senators from the South-West were jostling for the position.Senator Iyiola Omisore from Osun State, Senator Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello from Ogun and Senator Ayo Arise from Ekiti, all from the PDP, were said to be the front liners for the office and were said to be working on how to scheme out others in the eventuality of the office being zoned to the South-West.But the outcome of the National Assembly election of April 9 as well as the rescheduled one went contrary to the expectations of the PDP candidates and a completely new set of senators will be representing the zone in the upper legislative chamber as from June. That has put paid to the aspiration of these senators returning to the senate and their ambition of becoming the Senate President.The only returning senator from the South-west zone is Ganiyu Olanrewaju Solomon, but he is not a member of the PDP; he is an Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) senator. Given the fact that the PDP has the majority of members from the chamber, it is very unlikely that he would be given the Senate presidency just to satisfy the zone.The PDP was able to produce just one senator in the South-West, he is Hosea Ayoola Agboola, representing Oyo North senatorial district. He will be a new member of the chamber and going by the existing order of the Senate, it is only a ranking senator (not a first timer) that can head the legislative chamber.So, the chances of Agboola becoming the Senate President despite his being a PDP senator from the South-West look remote. Not just that, he cannot even hope, for now, of becoming the Deputy Senate President because the same requirements are demanded of both the Senate President and his deputy, except that they come from different zones.In the same vein, the PDP does not parade ranking members of the House of Representatives from the South-West. The current Speaker of the House, Dimeji Bankole, was defeated by an ACN candidate, just as many of his colleagues from the zone. Though the South-West has some returning House of Representatives members, they are not of the PDP stock, and they have little or no chance of being given the opportunity to head the lower legislative chamber. So, the zone does not stand a chance of producing either the Speaker or the Deputy Speaker for the House of Representatives.There is no doubt that the inability of the zone to retain the House speakership or even to produce the senate presidency or even the deputies will be the gain of other zones. It has been said that while the situation may compel the PDP to retain the Senate presidency in the North-Central zone, with the possibility of Senator David Mark heading the new Senate, it may also decide to zone the House speakership to the South-East. But what will the South-West gain for its lossPolitical pundits are of the opinion that since the zone has no hope of producing occupants of the six highest political offices in the land, its only hope now is to produce the candidate for the office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), if it has to present a semblance of relevance in national politics. This is no doubt a powerful position, given the fact that it is the engine room of government but the appointment of the occupant is at the discretion of the president.So, unlike the presidency, the Senate presidency or the House speakership, all of which enjoy a fixed tenure in the absence of any earth-shaking scandal, the SGF remains in office for as long as the president wants him. Although Obasanjo kept Ufot Ekaette in office for eight years as the SGF, Baba Gana Kingibe did not enjoy that luxury; he was booted out of office by the late President Umaru YarAdua on return from one of his medical trips abroad on the grounds of disloyalty to the then president.Then, it may be difficult to force anybody from the South-West on President Goodluck Jonathan if he is satisfied with the conduct of the incumbent SGF, Yayale Ahmed, who he inherited from the late YarAdua. If Jonathan is satisfied with Ahmed and prefers not to rock the boat by keeping him, then the South-West will have to be content with producing just ministers and government agencies board chairmen and members.Again, the current Head of Service of the Federation is Professor Oladapo Afolabi from Oyo State in the South-West. Will the same zone be allowed to produce both the SGF and the HOS, though one is a political appointment and the other is notHowever, if the president decides to give the South-West a chance to produce the SGF, the zone has to come up with one of its best, as the president is not under any obligation to keep somebody he feels will slow him down.
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