The flooding in Lagos owing to the continuous rainfall has led to many predictions of doom for the survival of the centre of excellence and its residents. Yejide Gbenga-Ogundare reportsFOR Christians whose faith in God is not strong, the situation in Lagos, in the last seven days, can shake their faith in the promise of God that He would not destroy the world with water again. In fact, many have predicted that in the next few years, many areas in Lagos State may cease to exist as the ocean will, in all likelihood, reclaim its pathway.And for many residents that had lost families and properties to the recent flooding in Lagos, this belief is not an exaggeration, as their experiences are not only terrifying but too real to know that flood is a monster that no one can tame once it arrives.The incessant rains, heavier than normal rainfall had brought Lagos to its knees by wreaking havoc on the residents and also crippling commercial activities. Few things had succeeded in stopping the hectic pace of Lagos in a long while but flooding was extremely successful in bringing Lagos to a standstill as most areas have become death zones where no one dares to pass and some people have been cut off from other major areas.For many, it has been a long month of pain, agony and frustration as floods, occasioned by continuing torrential rains, continue to wreak havoc, sacking homes, submerging roads and making, many abandon their homes in flight for safety. Before now, the state government had urged residents of low lying areas to relocate upland while the rainy season lasted in order to avert more disasters like those experienced in recent times.As soon as rain starts now, many residents of Lagos get jittery and pray earnestly for sunshine. This, however, is not surprising if one moves around the state while it rains as what one will see will cause a great alarm. The force of the flood is usually like that of a heavy current in a fast flowing river and is also so deep that few will dare to wade through it.Now, Lagosians live in constant worry and no area seems immune to this disaster, in spite of government's effort at frequent drainage decongestions and education. People now live in fear and worry that the flood may become worse and that it may wash out whole areas out of existence. Many businesses had closed down while those that are open, complain of very low sales and are also forced to operate skeletal services.People have attributed the heavy rainfall this year to the heavy floods, adding that rivers and oceans in the city presently were over flowing. And according to them, areas like Ikoyi, Victoria Island, Lekki and Ajah as well as other sand filled areas are more prone to this disaster.For areas like Ajegunle, Ikorodu, Ajilete and Mile 12, the situation is even worse as they are bombarded on two sides. Aside the normal rain water flood from Lagos, they also have to contend with flood from the over flowing river from Ogun State, due to heavy down pour.This recent occurrences of flooding seemed to be lending credence to a call by a group in 1999 that Lagos State be saved from going under and being submerged. According to that report, a substantial part of the highbrow area of Lagos State may go under in the next 50 years if the predictions of experts in oceanography are anything to go by.'The coastal shelf of Victoria Island is at present barely two metres (six feet) above sea level. A remarkable percentage of 15 million Lagosians see Victoria Island and its satellite peninsula, Lekki, as the best part of the state to invest in, and obtain superlative returns in real estate. Yet rising at a pace of one-metre per 50 years, the ocean surge may herald armageddon for the city. Same goes for Bayelsa State, a state with vast mangrove creeks which is host to multinational oil producing companies,' the report stated in 1999.And 13years on, the prediction seems to be gradually coming true as the climate continues to change and torrential rain falls even when weather experts predict sunshine, leading to a lot of areas being flooded. Many residents of Lekki had, in the last few days, abandoned their homes to seek refuge in areas that had seemed beneath their status before.On the heels of Africa asking the developed world to provide $67bn annually to combat, adapt and mitigate effects of climate change, fear now lives in the heart of many Lagos residents who now seem to expect the worst from now till the rainy season ends.For many, the aquatic splendor of which they boast has now become a thing of dread as at this period last year, when heavy floods came visiting in Lagos and it was so devastating that the Lagos State government declared Monday July 11, 2011, a public holiday due to the torrential downpour which also lasted days and the accompanying flood that sent many residents away from home while many lives and properties were also lost.The situation, however, is not about to change, based on predictions by meteorologists who had, earlier in the year, predicted that many coastal and inland cities across the country will continue to experience heavy rains and that areas that had previously not experienced flooding would not be spared.In the last week, residents in many parts of the city like Surulere, Ikorodu Road, Ejigbo, Lagos Island, Ajah, Ikeja, Aboru, Apapa and some parts of Iba were praying for a divine intervention that would halt the rain and subsequent flood.A major fallout of the flooding, aside loss of lives and properties, is the crippling of business and commercial activities in all spheres. People that had to go to important places could not meet up as a result of the traffic gridlock on major roads in Lagos while people had to close down their shops that had been taken over by flood to allow the water dry up.In addition to this is the issue of productive man-hours lost in traffic jams which have worsened since the rains started. Though Lagos is associated with terrible traffic situations, things have gone worse since the floods as many buses have gone off the roads and those still working also try to avoid the flooded areas leading to hectic traffic gridlock which has overtaken all major roads.On Roads like the Lagos-Badagry Expressway, Apapa-Oshodi Expressway, Ikotun-Egbeda road, Ahmadu Bello Way, Victoria Island and Oworonshoki-Ibadan Expressway, motorists and commuters now spend hours, instead of minutes to reach their destinations. On Apapa-Oshodi Expressway, the floods and the accompanying traffic have been compoundedThis however seems a tip of the iceberg for Lagosians, going by the stance of experts at the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) who had warned that Nigerians, especially those living in coastal areas like Lagos, should prepare for more rains, which will go on till the third week of July, meaning two more weeks of hell for Lagos residents.Speaking on this, NIMET's Deputy General Manager, Mr. Cyprian Okoloye said nothing could stop the rain until the third week in July. 'We are monitoring the situation over the coast and inland, as well as most areas in the South. Just like I said the rains will continue till the third week of July. The only thing that will vary is the intensity. It will subside for a while and pick up again.'Right now the Monsoon flow pattern is over the West Coast of Africa where it brings a lot of rainfall over the coast. So, right now, it is deep. The whole country is having rain. Like in Abuja, the rain has been heavy and in most parts of the South. We are in the peak period for rain. So it will continue up till the third week of July before we will have a respite. There will be temporary relief with drizzles. Then there will be a little dry season afterwards, what people call August break.'According to Okoloye, 'this Monsoon flow is very deep over the coast of West Africa and will continue to bring rain. I can tell you it will continue at interval. So you will expect flash floods here and there.'He also advocated monitoring of the weather as a way of preparing and combating the situation. 'Listen to weather forecast for cities across Nigeria and this can be obtained from our website. The Central Forecast Office on daily basis publishes two to three days' weather predictions for state capitals and beyond. This will equip them to take precautions,' he statedAlso, he added that there wont be long respites between the rain's. 'There would be a respite for just a day or so. The rains will subside and pick up,' he said.NIMET had also through its Director General, Dr. Anthony Anuforom, at the beginning of this year, given a clear picture of rainfall pattern for 2012, in a paper titled: 'Seasonal Rainfall Prediction and Socio-economic Implications for Nigeria for year 2012,' where he stated that, 'there is likely to be normal onset of rains in 2012 in most parts of the country. Onset dates between late February (in the Southern-most part of the country) and last week of June (in the northernmost part of the country) are predicted. A near normal annual rainfall amount is predicted varying from 300 to 1100mm in the northern half of the country and from 1200 to 2700mm in the South.'On what Nigerians should do to ameliorate the effects of the rains or rather, to contain the rains, the meteorologist said:NIMET is not alone in its prediction, the Lagos State Commissioner for the Environment, Mr. Tunji Bello, had earlier stated that the rains would begin in March and end in November.'It has also been predicted that the end of season for 2012 rainfall is 12 November with a margin of error of two days, between 10 and 14 November as probable days,' he said.And since nothing can be done to stop the rain and its attendant flood, the state government has, in a way to stop unnecessary loss of lives and properties, called on residents in flood prone areas to relocate though a great percentage has refused to heed this call.The state government also ensured the connectivity of the six major water channels across the metropolis to ensure a seamless water passage to the lagoon at different points, leading to an extensive rehabilitation and clearing from Gbagada/Bariga/Akoka axis, to Mushin/LUTH/Coker/FESTAC and Sheraton/Odo Iyalaro and Obalende/Dolphin axis, while work is still on-going in Badia/Ajegunle and Alimosho axis.However, all these efforts and the frequent excavation of drainage has not in any way stopped the fearsome ravaging of the flood in Lagos metropolis. Will Lagos indeed finally succumb to the water as predicted' Even the experts have no ready answer to this question.
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