Group Politics Editor, Taiwo Adisa, examines insinuations doing the rounds in the North that President Goodluck Jonathan's repudiation of 2015 ambition could douse political tension.PRESIDENT Goodluck Jonathan emerged on the Nigerian scene at a time when the vexed issue of North/South dichotomy over power had been raised to a crescendo. The nation had been held to ransom by the acclaimed cabal behind the administration of the late President Umaru Yar'Adua, who instigated the refusal of a sick President Yar'Adua to hand over to the then Vice President Goodluck Jonathan on account of fears that power could slip from their hands. At the larger scale, the fear of the cabal was said to be on behalf of the northernpolitical establishment which felt that if Yar'Adua was eased out of power, the zone could equally lose out.The Yar'Adua saga was on for nearly six months, with the late president's handlers refusing to yield the power that belongs to the North to a South-South candidate, a move they feared could kick start power shift. Eventually, when Yar'Adua died, Jonathan became a substantive president, after the National Assembly had, through a resolution, named him acting president in February of 2010. But the schism between the geo-political zones had been raised to newer heights.It dovetailed into the 2011 elections where many political bigwigs in the North believed that Jonathan should not have contested the election on account of the often trumpeted zoning formula of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The Alhaji Adamu Ciroma-led Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) orchestrated the northern consensus agenda, aimed at defeating Jonathan at the PDP primaries. All this raised the feeling among the northern political class that the presidential seat, as at 2011, should be an exclusive preserve of the zone.It was a feeling which is undying, even after the elections were concluded and Jonathan had won. Some of the earliest commentators on the state of insecurity in the country, after the elections, had attributed it to the jettisoning of the zoning arrangement, while raising the zoning issue above the nation's constitution, which recognises the vice president as president in case of death or incapacity of the original holder of office. It is therefore not surprising that soon after the 2011 elections were won and lost, some political players started the talk of 2015. The fear that immediately gripped that class of players is whether Jonathan would show interest in the 2015 elections and therefore postponing the return of power to the North.While the feelings have been silently expressed in some quarters in the North before now, the Northern Governors Forum (NGF), in July, announced its intention to ensure power returns to the North in 2015. But an elder statesman and influential voice in the North, Alhaji Ahmed Joda, laid the insinuations bare last week, when he told Jonathan to renounce the quest for power in 2015 as a way of bringing down political tension in the land. Though a PDP chieftain, Cyracus Njoku, had approached an Abuja Court seeking to disqualify Jonathan from the 2015 race, Joda said it was time the president announce his lack of interest in the next election.The former Permanent Secretary and chairman of the Nigeria Communications Commission (NCC) said in a statement: 'The president should defuse the present political tension that now pervades the country. This should begin with his renouncing any intention he may have of contesting the 2015 elections and devoting his entire time, energy and resources of the country in order to give Nigeria a credible and transparent constitution; a free, transparent and fair election.'He said the president should restructure his cabinet, appoint more credible persons and complete his current mandate, while also concerning himself to the conduct of a free, fair and credible election in 2015. He further advised the president to impose an austerity budget, while also instituting a working relation with the judiciary to fight corruption. He also advocated the composition of a Constituent Assembly to tackle the issues related to constitution amendment.Although the statement credited to the elder statesman dwelt on different issues affecting the polity, the advice to Jonathan to renounce the 2015 elections easily raised eyebrows. Not a few commentators easily read the suggestion as an indication of the North's apparent jitters over the 2015 elections. Indeed, while some commentators have labeled the Njoku suit as possibly coming from the Jonathan camp, others have insisted that the suit was instituted by northern establishment to ensure that the 2015 question is settled in earnest. The calculation in many quarters is that should Jonathan decide to contest the 2015 elections, it would be difficult to wrest the ticket of the PDP from an incumbent president and that being the case, he could as well win the Presidency. Thus, with such a consideration, there is the need to sort out the Jonathan question on time.The suggesting by Joda has however raised a number of questions about power and unity of Nigeria. Some commentators would ask how the repudiation of an alleged 2015 presidential ambition by Jonathan would bring down political tension. Others may also ask whether the tension being witnessed is actually orchestrated or whether the feeling in some quarters that those who do not want the government of Jonathan to succeed are behind the travails of his administration. While Alhaji Joda did not indicate as such, many could read his statement in that line. Many would also ask whether Jonathan is eligible or not to contest the next election and conclude that, as far as the courts have not barred him from participating in the election, it would be preposterous to stampede him into disqualifying himself.Again, while Jonathan himself has refused to declare his 2015 stance, he has however insisted that his current tenure is his first term of office, meaning that he could be entitled to another term if he so decides. Besides, it could also be observed that by disqualifying himself from the 2015 race, just about a year after taking office, Jonathan could fall into the 'guilty bracket' which proponents of the zoning formula had weaved for him.Proponents of the PDP zoning formula wanted everyone to believe that with a North/South power sharing arrangement in place in the party, the president should not have contested election, even when nature placed him in the position through the demise of his former boss. He would be admitting that it was wrong for him to have contested, said a PDP chieftain, who chose not to be named, who added that the issue of zoning in the party was an open-ended question. For instance, it was said that while the constitution recognises the vice president as substantive president in case of death of the president, the zoning arrangement did not envisage the death of thepPresident in office, thereby placing itself against the tide of nature. Again, the fact that the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria is superior to any other law or rule in the land makes the zoning principle a rule that cannot be described as sacrosanct.In fact, many young political commentators had, with benefit of hindsight, condemned the agitation for a single northern presidential candidate as fashioned by Ciroma and his colleagues in the NPLF. To such commentators, the action by Ciroma and co only further divided the country as it did nothing to emphasise Nigerianess, unity and coexistence that should characterise a federal system.It has been observed that in a country where the North/South divide has been a constant remainder of the fragile nature of the nation's existence, playing a divisive politics that further orchestrate the sentiments cannot be good politics.It has even been observed that following the emergence of Jonathan as president in 2011, all references to the divisive politics that played out before his election should have bowed to national interest, while allowing the man to exercise his mandate pending the next election. There is the feeling that the persistent search for power by the North amounts to a reduction of the other components of the country as onlookers in the power equation. Senator Mohammed Aruwa, who contested the governorship election of Kaduna State on the platform of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) in 2011, said recently that he has to return to PDP so as to work for a united PDP that could deliver power to the North. He said that when the North is united, it could always decide who wields power in the land. Incidentally, such thinking about the power residing in the North has influenced the tension over political power in the nation. Rather than such thinking enhancing the chances of the North to retain power, it has emerged that the thinking is raising the consciousness of other geo-political zones to the reality of the federal state that Nigeria is and that no one zone can make its candidate president. While President Olusegun Obasanjo was in charge, the South-West region came together to ensure he completed the eight years in office, despite the persistent calls for a quick return of power to the North. It is also possible that the persistent search for power by the North could unite the South-South behind Jonathan and even if he decides not to seek re-election, he could play a tricky role in the 2015 power game.
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