Governor Babatunde Fashola of Lagos State has become a sort of an enigma in the Nigerian political terrain, with his acclaimed infrastructural transformation of the state. Midway into his second term of office, Assistant Editor, Dapo Falade, X-rays the possible political destination of the governor as he takes his exit from the seat of power in May 2015.TO not quite a few Nigerians, Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) before becoming a governor, was a political neophyte and a dark horse who the national leader of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and immediate past governor of Lagos State, Senator Bola Tinubu, imposed on the state as a means to cover his tracks after leaving office in 2007. What was known of the man then was that he served as the Chief of Staff to Tinubu and he was also Commissioner to the Governor's Office; the first person to hold both offices simultaneously.However, Fashola, the 13th governor of Lagos State, had served the state in various capacities since the inception of the present democratic experiment. Between 1999 and 2006, when he voluntarily resigned his appointment as the Chief of Staff to Tinubu to contest the governorship election, he had variously been Secretary, Lands Sub-Committee of the Transitional Work Groups: member, Panel of Enquiry into allocation of houses on the Mobolaji Johnson Housing Scheme at Lekki; member, Tenders Board; member, Lagos State Executive Council; member, Lagos State Security Council and member, Lagos State Treasury Board. He was also the chairman, Ad-Hoc Committee on the Review of Asset distribution among local governments.Fashola commenced his first four-year tenure as the Lagos State governor on 29 May, 2007 and, early into the life of his administration, he demonstrated a clear departure from the style of his alter ego, Senator Tinubu. As the state's political numero uno, he introduced a series of measures and policies aimed at repositioning and sustaining Lagos as the leading state in the country. The governor touched and is still touching virtually all aspects of human endeavours and he is being recognised (either rightly or wrongly) as the true face of all-round development and a well-rounded leader in the present dispensation.While some of his actions and policies were seen as too harsh and draconic, especially with regards to the burden of taxation (multiple in some cases) and laws regarded as anti-people, the Fashola-led administration remains unrepentant in its resolve to make the state to live up to its appellation as the Centre of Excellence. In fact, the man was generally seen as the governor with the Midas touch in the quest to restore the lost glory of Lagos State as the former seat of power of the Nigerian nation. His popularity also soared, both among the ACN faithful and the people of the state and he went on to be re-elected on 26 April, 2011 by a landslide victory as the Lagos State helmsman, recording 82 per cent of the total votes cast and the highest votes ever cast for any individual in any state in the electoral history of Nigeria.However, it was a thorny and bumpy road to a second term of office victory for Fashola, as the governor witnessed what some analysts described as political eclipse in late 2009 when speculations became rife within and outside the media that he might possibly face an impeachment, allegedly being sponsored by his benefactor, Senator Tinubu, primarily because of some disagreements with the former governor. Although both Fashola and the state House of Assembly had denied such a plot ever taking place, the belief then was that there was a dispute was over a big sum of money said to be about N2.1 billion worth of commission which the state government had with the former governor.In what had been described a s deft move to checkmate the growing influence of Governor Fashola (particularly with his desire to run for a second term of office in 2011) and the denial of any impeachment notwithstanding, the state legislative arm of government, goaded by the group known as the 'True Face of Lagos', in January 2010, launched an investigation into possible mishandling of taxpayers' money by Fashola, mainly on the ongoing mega city project. The accusations ranged from importing of palm trees from Niger Republic for gardening projects within a rain forest state, to improper usage of contract money involving one of Lagos State's contractors. The final reports were due to be submitted on 15 February, 2010 but the anti-Fashola group was later abolished, thus scuttling the impeachment process. The other attempts later made to re-launch the probes through a petition were also turned down by the state's judiciary.After moments of horse-trading, Fashola's political party, the ACN, finally ended months of speculation over the second term ambition of the Lagos State governor as he was endorsed as the party's candidate for the 2011 governorship election. The man who did the onerous task of announcing Fashola's endorsement was Tinubu, who not quite a few Lagosians perceived to be at the centre of the uncertainty over the political future of Fashola. His endorsement was however said to have been an uneasy task, as it was said that it took the intervention of the elite and eminent citizens of the state to prevail upon Tinubu to sheathe the sword and settle his differences with his political godson.Announcing the endorsement of Fashola for a second term of office before thousands of party supporters, Tinubu, at the end of an emergency meeting held at the party secretariat, raised Fashola's hand and reportedly said: 'Today, by the powers conferred on me by the ACN, in consultation and in agreement with all our party leaders throughout the state and at the national level, I am announcing to you, the final endorsement of Raji Babatunde Fashola for the 2011 election.'Fashola is seen and regarded, particularly in the 'progressive' camp, as one of the bright hopes for the future of Nigeria. He was seen as one of the few governors who were determined to reclaim Nigeria's past glories through competent and transparent leadership. Since his swearing in into office on 29 May, 2007, the Lagos State governor, whose common clich is Eko o ni baje, (literally, 'Lagos will not spoil') has continually been demonstrating a commitment to excellence in public service and the zeal to lead the change that would transform Lagos into Africa's model mega-city. His pursuit of the infrastructural renewal of Lagos as the critical strategy for economic growth and poverty alleviation has been acknowledged, within and outside the country, receiving rare commendations even from the least expected quarters, namely President Goodluck Jonathan and some Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governors who looked up to Fashola and Lagos State as the models of modern development. To many political and development analysts, Fashola's feats were only comparable to what Governors Godswill Akpabio, Rotimi Amaechi and Olusegun Mimiko are currently doing in Akwa Ibom, Rivers and Ondo states, respectively.Beyond the confines of Lagos politics, Fashola had served in various ad-hoc committees set up by the Federal Government in different capacities. He was a member of the Presidential Committee on the Review of Tariffs charged with the responsibilities of reviewing the current tariff structure and fiscal incentives in Nigeria, identifying barriers to investments and recommending strategic initiatives that would promote foreign direct investments (FDI) and ultimately stimulate economic growth. He was the chairman of the Governor's Forum committee set up to formulate the rules and regulations guiding succession to leadership of the forum and to review the revenue allocation formula for Nigeria and make appropriate recommendations by which the state governments would engage critical stakeholders towards finding an equitable revenue formula for the country.However as it has been ordained that whatever has a beginning must have an end, the second term tenure of Governor Fashola will certainly come to an end on 29 May, 2015, a date which is less than three years away. In accordance with the Nigerian Constitution, his sterling qualities and performances notwithstanding, the man cannot seek a re-election for the third time as a governor. The pertinent question, therefore is, what next for the mercurial governor after May 2015' Put differently, what are the possible political attainment options available for him at the expiration of his second term tenure'To the layman and ordinary Nigerians alike, the above questions may appear mundane and a distraction from the task of governance in view of the fact that 2015 still seems to be a little far-away. However, for the politically-conscious and other stakeholders, scheming and manipulations ahead of the 2015 elections may have begun in earnest and many of the present political office holders at all levels across the country cannot be left out. Therefore, it will not be out of place to say that Fashola, who will still be less than 52 years old at the end of his tenure, would want to be out in the cold politically by then.Among the various options that may be available for Governor Fashola ahead of 2015 is the possibility of seeking to contest for either the office of the nation's vice-president or toe the line of some of his fellow governors and contest for a senatorial seat in the 2015 elections. Whichever of the two options, the governor may find himself in a dire strait as there are apparent obstacles on the way. Unarguably, Fashola, with his unique leadership and administrative style as a governor which was said to have endeared him to not quite a few people in Lagos State, had clearly demonstrated the fact he represents the true face of leadership; the man had proved that there is still present in the country a pool of leaders who the people can look up to when the chips are down.With his acknowledged sterling performance as a governor, one may have easily concluded that Fashola's next line of action would be a smooth sail. However in politics, one plus one has never been equal to two. Should the man choose to opt for the Senate at the expiration of his tenure in 2015, he may find a likely stumbling block in Senator Tinubu whose wife, Oluremi, currently holds sway as the senator representing Lagos Central Senatorial District in the National Assembly.Again, the questions arise: Will Tinubu persuade his wife not to run for a second term as a senator and thus allow Fashola to have a space to operate in the hallowed chambers of the national legislative body' If not, will the octopoidal former Lagos State governor create a space for his successor in any other district, probably Lagos West' If Tinubu is willing to do that, what will happen to the incumbent occupant of the seat, Senator Ganiyu Solomon' Will the serving senator allow himself to be offered as a sacrifice in order to fulfill the ambition of a man who will be leaving office as governor in 2015'The above questions, among others, become germane in view of the unfolding scenario in Lagos politics ahead of the 2015 elections. Except Tinubu changes his mind, there is every likelihood that his wife may be interested in taking another shot at the Senate in 2015. Should that be the case, it would mean that the door has been closed against Fashola who is from the same senatorial district as Senator Remi Tinubu. It becomes dicey should the former Lagos State governor decide to wield his famous power and influence the party hierarchy to give Fashola the Lagos Central slot. In case such a scenario plays out, would it mean that Senator Solomon had been endorsed to be the next occupant of the Alausa Government House at the exit of Fashola'A peep into the vice presidency option does not give Fashola a fairer chance either. Should he be interested, on which platform will he contest for the office' Given the fervour and zeal with which the ACN leadership is pursuing the merger talks with the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in the quest to wrestle power from the PDP in 2015, speculations are increasingly rife that Senator Bola Tinubu may be interested in becoming the nation's number two man. Should that be the truth, then when where lies the chances of Fashola' More importantly, should Fashola eventually decide to pursue either a senatorial or vice presidential ambition (if truly he has one), on which the platform would he realise his ambition'Some other people are also of the view that Fashola appears to be too sophisticated for the murky waters of the Nigerian politics and, thus, he may not seek for any political office again after the expiration of his tenure in 2015. But this line of thought can easily be punctured by the fact that the same sophisticated Fashola was once reported to have said that he was not interested in a second term of office as a governor by declaring that a brilliant student cannot repeat class. What played out in the prelude to his eventual second term victory was at variance with that reported stand of his.In any case, if indeed the man is not interested in pursuing any other political ambition after 2015, it would mean that he is left with the choice of opting out of politics to face a private life, either to pick up the wig and gown once again and go back to the legal profession where he made his mark, becoming a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) at a relatively tender age. In the alternative, he may opt for the less attractive private life, investing the experience and connections he had gathered over the years as a governor.While all the above remains at the realm of conjecture, one thing that is certain is that Governor Raji Fashola will take his exit from the seat of power in Lagos State by 29 May, 2015. If he truly has a further political ambition, it would only be human for him that, apart from the task of governing the state, his main headache for now would be his next political destination.Indubitably, the same would apply to the leadership of his political party as they would be battling with the problem of where to fix him. But more importantly, would it be plausible and acceptable for the man who will still be a little over 50 years of age to take the back seat in the political circles from 2015
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