THE presidential fixtures and the tone for 2015 may not be too different from what was experienced in 2011, as not much has changed in terms of positions and personalities. The positions are those of the parties, the geo-political zones and the ethnic groups.The personalities are largely the same set of gladiators, who have been around the corridors of power since 1999. There could be one or two alterations in the opposition camp for strategic reasons.Regarding positions, the North, for instance, has not relented in its claim to occupy Aso Rock. It (North) only 'sublet' that claim when the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) overpowered it and 'imposed' Goodluck Jonathan on it and the country in 2011.Since May 29, 2011, the North has not given Jonathan one inch of breathing space. They kept reminding him, through riotous statements and violent criticisms, that he was some usurper. As it were, they can barely wait for 2015 to push him out.The people of South-South have not taken all that lying low. They have insisted that Jonathan, who was vice president to Umaru Yar'Adua, was fit to continue from where his principal signed off as a result of death. They have continued to insist that the 1999 Constitution permits President Jonathan to run for a second term in 2015.The Southwest geo-political zone was very vital in deciding 2011. While the zone did not present a presidential candidate, the political party of first choice in the zone, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), did present a candidate in Nuhu Ribadu, who did not appeal to voters in the area. They seemed to prefer Jonathan, and that preference was expressly demonstrated through the votes.In 2015, the Southwest may still not field a presidential candidate, but the zone would work hard to make its investments yield more tangible results. The ACN, Nigeria's leading opposition party of the moment, is seriously into alliance talks, majorly with the Congress for Progressive Change, a massive movement from the North. The mood in the Southwest is that its political investments should yield dividend. That requires serious calculations, to know which alliance would work and which would just be showmanship.There is a lot of activism in the Southeast, where the clamour for power shift has been re-ignited. Ndigbo insists that it had been zoned out of power at the centre since the Civil War was prosecuted. For the sake of fairness and equity, Ndigbo wants a shot at the presidency, not to be dragged along as a 'second tyre.'For that reason, the mood in the zone is frenzied, and sentiments are running wild. But whether the leadership of the zone would harness all the passion into a more focused approach towards 2015 is the big question begging for answer.Ethnic considerations are more in the North, South-South and Southeast, where nationalist feelings are harvested to support the various claims. The Southwest, for now is more at ease to spread more nationally. Even that has to be done with an eye for the future.As for the personalities, a repeat of the faces thrown up in 2011 could occur. It has been said that grooming successor generations is a bit of a problem here. That is why a recycling of old faces is what is in vogue.Goodluck JonathanAS at now, it could be fair to assume that President Jonathan would run in 2015. Nearly everything points to this assumption. The man is constitutionally fit to run; he has age on his side; he has incumbency on his side and he would have more money for campaigns than any other candidates.However, running does not automatically translate into winning because the mood of the electorate has to be gauged. On that note, Jonathan would need to accelerate his pace to deliver significantly on Power, Infrastructure, Security, Anti-Corruption and Transparency. Budgets must be seen to be working all over the country and not based on ministers' dubious claims.After that, he could go and meet the leadership of the PDP and their governors, to ask their permission to run.Muhammadu BuhariTHE former Head of State has been around for a while since the time the military under him sacked the democratic government of the Second Republic.Clearly, Buhari has an unfinished business in the State House, where his government of reformation was rudely terminated. He has transformed into a democrat and is leader of the CPC. The party has a large following, especially in the North.Buhari has missed it for three consecutive times and must see 2015 as a 'do or die.' That is not in the sense of promising bloodbath, but to honestly assess his strength and seek assistance where he is weak.He is very weak in the South and he knows it. That is why he needs to forge a workable alliance with those who can give him votes in the South. The electorate wants real dividend and Buhari could tap into it once again.Atiku AbubakarTHE former Vice President is still optimistic about 2015. The man narrowly missed it when he disagreed with his former boss, President Obasanjo. Since then, he appears to have seen the 'Promised Land' and is stretching hard to step on it.In 2007, Atiku rallied the Action Congress (AC) to put up a heroic performance after the powers that be did everything to frustrate him. In 2011, fate played another trick on him, when the PDP and the governors failed to heed his pleas at the presidential primary of January 13. He was very close to it, but he missed it.Atiku has started rallying his old friends and allies to make 2015 a reality. He needs to manage his advantages very carefully.Nuhu RibaduTHE former chair of the powerful anti-graft agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), who was the candidate of the ACN in 2011, speedily withdrew into his shell thereafter, until Jonathan gave him a part-time job to help sanitise revenues accruing form crude oil sales.He has not explained what happened in 2011 to his friends and fans. So, he still owes that explanation. After that, he could decide what to do in 2015.Rochas OkorochaIN the Southeast, the governor of Imo State has been reported to have some presidential ambition.This is not the first time Okorocha would be on that road; so, he needs to come out clearly and define his mission and platform.Sule LamidoTHE Jigawa State governor was never in the picture in 2011 or the calculations for the 2012 until former President Obasanjo mooted pairing him with Rivers State governor, Rotimi Amaechi as presidential candidate and running mate, respectively.Since then, former military President, Ibrahim Babangida, has joined in the drumbeat for the former Foreign Affairs Minister to give it a shot. And reports say he is doing a good job of the ambition.
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