It's time to get down to business.The group stage of the 2016 UEFA European Championship is over, and the knockout rounds begin on Saturday. For Italy, the round of 16 starts on Monday at 5 p.m. BST (noon ET), when they square off against fellow European titan and two-time defending champion Spain.The Azzurriearned this marquee fixture after defying expectations and winning Group E with a game to spare, defeating pre-tournament favorites Belgium 2-0 and a punchless Sweden team 1-0 before losing the group finale 1-0 to the Republic of Ireland, a game that only had meaning for the Irish.Spain was expected to be on the other side of the draw as favorites in Group D, but a blown lead and 2-1 loss to Croatia in their group finale on Tuesday saw the Vatreni go top and dropped Spain into Italy's lap.If either team wants to win this tournament, it is going to have to navigate one of the most difficult routes in the history of the sport. The eight teams on this side of the bracket combine for a whopping 11 World Cups (four each from Germany and Italy and one each from Spain, England and France) and nine European Championships (three each from Germany and Spain, two from France and one from Italy).If a team from that side wins the tournament, it would likely be following one of the most heroic runs in international football history. But the other three of those five nations at least get to wade into the knockout phase with games they are expected to win. Italy and Spain will have to put on their big-boy cleats from the outset.It should be an excellent match. These are two teams that know each other extremely well. Monday's game will be the their ninth meeting since 2008and the fifth competitive fixture.Italy has only won one of those those games, a 2011 friendly in Bari. Spain have won three, including the final of Euro 2012. Of the remaining draws, two came in the knockout rounds of Euro 2008 and the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup. Spain won both via penalty shootouts.That record belies how competitive this rivalry has been. Of the four games that didn't end in a tie, three were decided by only one goal. The exception, Spain's 4-0 win in the final four years ago, was a result of then-Italy manager Cesare Prandelli bungling the tactics and losing a player to injury after using all three of his substitutions.The rest of the games have been much tighter. La Roja dominated the entire world between 2008 and 2012, but as much as a team that has as much success can have a bogey team, Italy was it.Legendary Spanish player Xavi Hernandez explained why that was in an interview withLa Gazzetta dello Sport(h/t Football Italia). "Spain suffer when they don't have the ball," said the former Barcelona captain. "Italy don't. They stay chilled. That's the great difference between the two teams. Honestly in terms of philosophy, personality and competitiveness, you're the most inconvenient rival there can be for Spain."He went on to praise Italy's mentality, saying Spanish players "had this idea that nothing could unnerve you" and that playing the Azzurri could be a psychological "handicap."It's that history and that difference in style that marks this game as the potential match of the tournamentand it'll likely be a nail-biter. What's more, Italy manager Antonio Conte's tactics might be exactly what Italy needs to take out Spain.The two best games Italy played against Spain under Prandelli came when Prandelli deployed a three-man back line. In the group-stage of Euro 2012,Prandelli used the formation after an injury forced a reshuffle of his normal 4-3-1-2. Italy throttled Spain for most of the game, only allowing a sequence of opportunities on goal toward the end as fatigue set in.The second, the semifinal of the 2013Confederations Cup, saw Prandellireshuffle his team specifically to counter Spain's threat. Lined up in a 3-4-3, the Azzurri controlled the vast majority of the game and fully deserved to win. Had Christian Maggio been a little more clinical with a pair of headers in the early going, they would have done just that.The advantage of a three-man back line against Spain is clear. Ever since tiki-taka came into being, Spain have gotten width in the attack almost solely from their full-backs. In most cases, they succeed. Over the course of Spain's run of success, the full-backs generally won those battles, kicking the team attack into gear.With Barcelona's Jordi Alba and Atletico Madrid's Juanfran filling those roles for Vicente del Bosque's team this time around, a traditional full-back is going to have a hard time winning that battle.But a 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 is different. When faced with wing-backs, who naturally sit further up the field, Spain's full-backs are kept higher as well. That makes them less likely to join the attack and consequently funnels all of Spain's attacking efforts into the defensive trio of Andrea Barzagli, LeonardoBonucci and Giorgio Chiellini.It's fortunate, then, that Contesettle on the 3-5-2 before the tournament. The pure full-backs he brought, Matteo Darmian and Mattia De Sciglio, aren't anywhere near the levels of Alba or Juanfran and would likely get overrun if matched against them from a traditional position. But Conte's wing-backs can force them back toward their own end of the field.From there they can help channel play into the clogged middle and serve as outlets for counterattackssomething Spain has looked vulnerable against in the tournament, especially against Croatia on Tuesday.Del Bosque seems to have recognized the threat the 3-5-2 poses his team and, according to multiple reports (h/t Football Italia), has tested out a 4-3-3 in training, with Alvaro Morata moving out to the left wing and Aritz Aduriz coming in as the central striker. The idea would be to spread the Italian back three out with wingers and attack the space that opens up.This idea has its merits, but isn't without its drawbacks.Morata has scored three times in the tournament, so it seems somewhat unwise to remove him from the position that will get him the most service in front of goal. It's also worth notingMorata spent a fair chunk of time at that position withJuventus this yearand it ruined his form.Morata is going to be a key here. If he continues his run of form and is able to menace Gianluigi Buffon in goal, Italy could be in for long night. Of course, Morata is familiar with the Italy defensehe played against them in training every day for two years as a Juventus player. If that familiarity allows the so-called BBC to shut him down, though, Spain will have to go to Plan B in order to score.However the managers deal with tactics, history tells us we're in for an excellent game between Italy and Spain. The two rivals are polar opposites on the fieldone is all about defense, and the other focuses on attack. Spain are the more talented team, but Conte has already outcoached a team this tournament that is superior to his on paper.If he does it again, he'll have passed one of his biggest tests as a managerand Italy will be a major step closer to their second European Championship.
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