The Olympics rage on, European soccer has returned and college football is right around the corner, but let's be honest: Your mind is on fantasy football.Hey, I don't blame you. My mind is there, too.So let's embark upon one of August's most time-honored traditions: obsessing over potential sleepers and busts for the upcoming NFL season.SleepersWe won't be going over each and every potential sleeper in great detail, but we'll try to offer a brief look at why several of the players listed above are sleeper candidates. QuarterbacksJameis Winston and Marcus Mariota each flashed major potential in their rookie seasons, so it's hardly a stretch to think they'll show improvement in 2016. Winston is the better passer, so his floor is higher. Mariota is a danger on the ground with his legs, so his ceiling is higher. Each has plenty to overcome to be considered a true fantasy optionWinston has to scale back the turnovers, Mariota has to stay healthybut each could make a lot of noise in 2016.Colin Kaepernick is the deepest of sleepers, but if he wins the starting job in San Francisco and adjusts to head coach Chip Kelly's offense, he could be a fantasy monster given his ability on the ground.Derek Carr and the Oakland Raiders continue to look better and better with each passing year. He had eight games with 17 or more fantasy points in standard-scoring leagues a year ago. Look for his consistency and output to continue to improve.Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Clive Walford give Carr a nice arsenal to utilize. Running BacksHere's your theme for running back: look for younger players who could end up winning the starting job due to a lack of talent in front of them, injury-prone players ahead of them or a specific skill set that should give them a solid role in the offense.I love Duke Johnson this year, but don't be surprised if he goes off the board in the middle rounds. Even then, he has the ability to be an RB2. Ameer Abdullah and Melvin Gordon should earn the early-down work in Detroit and San Diego, respectively, while players such as Paul Perkins are probably already the best players on the depth chart and should be the starters soon enough.Wide ReceiverFew positions are as deep as wide receiver, so finding sleepers here is probably less important than at positions like running back or tight end. But pay attention to four groups of players:Proven veterans due for bounce-back seasons (Torrey Smith).Young, talented players primed for breakout campaigns (DeVante Parker, Dorial Green-Beckham).Rookies or young players in excellent systems where they'll get plenty of opportunities (Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas, Sammie Coates).Josh Gordon. Because why not'Tight EndsCoby Fleener gets Drew Brees. Not a ton else needs to be said there.Walford, meanwhile, showed signs as a rookie last season, and another year working with Carr should help him immensely. Every young quarterback needs a safety net. Walford could be a nice one, assuming he stays healthy.Finally, Eric Ebron has been a bust thus far, but with Calvin Johnson gone, more red-zone targets should be heading his way. In general, players like Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Ebron should get a bump with Matt Stafford not having his favorite target in Detroit any longer.The operative word is "should," of course. But that's always the operative word when it comes to sleepers. BustsThere are a few players I'm absolutely avoiding this year, or at least expecting to take a step back. Devonta FreemanSimply put, the return of Tevin Coleman concerns me, because the Falcons are going to give him plenty of touches. Head coach Dan Quinn all but guaranteed that in late July, per Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com:That makes it a safe bet that Freeman won't get 265 carries in 2016, which also means he's unlikely to accumulate over 1,000 rushing yards or 11 rushing touchdowns again.Yes, Freeman is likely to earn the bigger workload. He earned that after last season, and Coleman's fumbling issues will be in the back of the coaches' minds. But Coleman is a talented player who probably would have been the starter last year were it not for injuries, and the Falcons are going to utilize him.That means Freeman's workload is going to decrease, and it likely means he won't be an RB1 even though you'll probably need to use a first-round pick to draft him. You don't want to draft a potential fringe RB2 with a first-round pick. Freeman won't lose all of his value, but given his price, he has bust written all over him.DeMarco MurrayDeMarco Murray was poor last season. There's no getting around that fact. Yes, Chip Kelly's system was a bad fit for his skill set, but Murray also looked like he simply lost a step. It would seem the Tennessee Titans agree, as they used a second-round draft pick to select running back Derrick Henry.It's hard to imagine a team using that type of commodity on a running back if they were convinced the veteran star they traded for had everything left in the tank. And it's not as though Henry's a complementary piece to Murray. Quite the contrary: Henry is a one-cut, downhill, physical runner.Sound familiar'Here's the other tricky thing when it comes to Murray: From a fantasy perspective, the 28-year-old has had one good season and one great season. Injuries and last year's debacle in Philadelphia have hampered him the rest of his career.And it probably shouldn't be understated that Murray's offensive line in Dallas during his two breakout years was arguably the best in football. Add it all up, and there's just more to dislike about Murray than like. Even with a middle-round selection, you can probably do better.Allen Hurns and Doug BaldwinI think both of these players will be solid, reliable options you can throw into your flex spot each week. But do I think they'll be top-15 wide receivers like they were a year ago'No, no I don't.Here's why: Touchdowns are fickle beasts. Baldwin and Hurns could accumulate over 1,000 receiving yards again next season. What is hard to imagine is Baldwin catching 14 touchdown passes, or Hurns reeling in 10 for a second season in a row.Banking on touchdowns is risky. Here's an example. In 2015, Mike Evans had more receptions, targets and receiving yards than he did in 2014. But he also had nine fewer touchdowns. In turn, he was fantasy's No. 27 receiver last season.Calling Evans a bust last year might be a bit harsh. But for a player who was drafted to be a high-end WR2, the fact that he was on the fringe of being a flex option certainly was a disappointment.Remember, Baldwin never had more than five touchdown receptions in a season before last year. Hurns had six in 2014. Calling either player a bust in 2016 wouldn't be completely fairboth should be top-35 receivers this yearbut don't expect them to replicate last season's breakout campaigns. Expect a more modest output from a fantasy perspective. Kirk CousinsFor the first 11 games of last season, Cousins didn't look like much of a fantasy stud. In standard-scoring leagues, he exceeded 20 fantasy points just three times.But down the stretch, he was awesome, going for 19 or more points in five of Washington's last six games. That vaulted him to the No. 8 ranking among quarterbacks last year, raising the question: Which Cousins is the real Cousins'Much of that will probably have to do with his supporting cast. Can Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson stay healthy' WillJosh Doctsonemerge as a reliable weapon (and stay healthy as well)'Relying on Reed to stay healthy is risky. He's missed 14 games the past three seasons. Jackson missed six games last year as well. And Doctson is just a rookie and has been dealing withAchilles issues in camp.Plus, we have a limited amount of games to analyze when it comes to Cousins. Going into last year, he had played in all of 14 contests.And Cousins didn't exactly light up elite defenses. His eight games of 19 or more fantasy points came against the Philadelphia Eagles (twice), Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Chicago Bears, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys.The Saints, Giants and Eagles gave up the most fantasy points per week to opposing quarterbacks last year. The Bears were 26th, the Bucs were 25th and the Bills were 17th. Suffice to say, Cousins took advantage of a favorable schedule. Both the Giants and Eagles, at least, look better on paper defensively this season. The schedule may not be so soft this year, in other words.There is a level of uncertainty when it comes to fantasy, but for my taste, Cousins is surrounded by way too much uncertainty to trust this year. And frankly, there are enough more reliable veterans or high-upside youngsters I'd rather have on my roster.Simply put, I think Cousins will regress somewhat in 2015. He should still be a decent QB2, but folks expecting him to remain a QB1 are going to be disappointed. All scoring and points-against stats via ESPN. You can follow TimothyRapponTwitter.
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