A top defense strategy think tankrecently released a reporthat looks at the implications of a possible war between the US and China.The news is almost universally bad, but theassessment of a full-scale war between the US and China in 2025 paints a dire pictureof the aftermath of a conflict between the worlds two biggest superpowers.While a war today would be costly for the US, Chinas increasing anti-access, area denial arsenal as well as itsgrowing carrier capability and aircraft strength could make it impossible for the US to establish military dominance and achieve adecisive victory in 2025, the report by the RAND Corporation says.Premeditated war between the United States and China is very unlikely, but the danger that a mishandled crisis could trigger hostilities cannot be ignored, RAND says. Technological advances in the ability to target opposing forces are creating conditions of conventional counterforce, whereby each side has the means to strike and degrade the others forces and, therefore, an incentive to do so promptly, if not first.Instead, the two sides would fight until itshome populations got fed up and demanded an end to hostilities, something that may not happen until the body counts get too high to stomach.RAND declined to state a number of expected casualties in any potential war, but itestimated the loss of multiple carriers and other capital platforms for each side. Nimitz-class carriers carry approximately6,000 sailors and Marines on acruise. The loss of a single ship would representa greater loss of life and combat power than all lossesin the Iraq War.The study predicts a stunning display of technological might on bothsides, which isnt surprising consideringwhat each country has in the field and in the works. The paper doesnt name specific weapon systems, but it predicts that fifth-generation fighterswill be able to shoot downfourth-generation fighters with near impunity.The US recently fielded itssecond fifth-generation fighter, the F-35 Lightning II. Americas other advanced fighter, the F-22 Raptor, has been in service since 2005. China is developing four fifth-generation fightersthe J-20; the J-32; the J-23; and the J-25.The J-20 and J-32 will likely be in the field in 2025 and would potentially rival Americas fighters.By 2025, China could have two more aircraft carriers for a total of three. It currently owns one functional carrier purchased from Russia and is manufacturing a second.Despite Americas greater numbers of both fifth-generation fighters and total aircraft carriers, Chinas growing missile arsenal would force America to act cautiously or risk unsustainable losses, RAND argues.Outside of the conventional war, cyber attacks, anti-satellite warfare, and trade disruptions would hurt both countries.Both belligerents have anti-satellite weapons that are nearly invulnerable to attack, meaning that both countries will be able to destroy a substantial portionof each others satellites. The destruction of the American satellite constellation wouldbe especially problematic for the rest of the world since nearly all GPS units connect to American satellites.Cyber attacks would cripple vulnerable grids on both sides of the Pacific, likely including many of the computer servers that maintain public utilities and crucial services like hospitals.Trade disruptions would damage both countries, but China would be affected to a much greater extent, RAND says.A lot of American commerce passes through the Pacific, but China does a whopping 95 percent of its trade there and is more reliant on trade than the US. For China, any large Pacific conflict would be very expensive at home.While its very unlikely that China could win a war with the US, RAND says the fighting would be so bloody and costly for both sides that even average Americans would suffer greatly. Service members and their families would have it the worst.By 2025, US losses could range from significant to heavy; Chinese losses, while still very heavy, could be somewhat less than in 2015, owing to increased degradation of US strike capabilities, RAND says. Chinas [anti-access weapons]will make it increasingly difficult for the USto gain military-operational dominance and victory, even in a long war.There are two pieces of good news. First, leaders on both sides are hesitant to go to war. Even better, RANDs assessment says that neither country is likely to risk nuclear retaliation by firing first, so the war would likely remain a conventional affair.The bad news is that increasing tension could trigger an accidental war despite political leaders best intentions. RAND recommends that leaders set clear limits on military actions in the Pacific and establish open lines of dialogue.The American and Chinese military do participate in some exercises together. The Chinese hospital ship Peace Ark and the Chinese frigate Hengshui took part in the Rim of the Pacific exercise, but continued Chinese espionage against America and reported cyber attacks prevent a happy relationship.Hopefully the US and China can come to friendly termsbecause a war tomorrow would be catastrophic and a war in 10 years could be crippling for everyone involved.The full report from RAND is available as a PDF for free. It can also be purchased as a paperback. A Q&A with the lead study author is available here.SEE ALSO:23 jaw-dropping photos from Russia's massive International Army GamesJoin the conversation about this storyNOW WATCH: Watch the Marines' F-35 fire an 80-round burst from its gun pod for the first time
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