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Fantasy Football 2016: Breaking Down Updated Mock Draft and Mobile Cheat Sheet

Published by Bleacher Report on Wed, 17 Aug 2016


Anybody can slap down a bunch of rankings and leave them there for you to ponder and disagree with and consult without any real context. But what's the point of that' Will rankings alone help you craft a draft philosophy'I think not.So I decided to provide my 10-round rankings round by round in the format of a 10-player draft, breaking down the type of strategy I'll be employing each round. Certainly, my strategy isn't a fixed onea great fantasy player adapts to their league's other players and what the board providesbut my rankings should give you an idea of how I'll be approaching fantasy drafts this summer.Note: If Le'Veon Bell wins his appeal and isn't suspended for any games, he's the top player on my board. These rankings reflect his current four-game suspension status, however.A lot of people are going to recommend taking a wide receiver in the first round. It makes sense, frankly. Wide receiversat least the elite at the positionhave become safer than running backs, a position in flux in the NFL at the moment.Consider that last season, both Antonio Brown and Julio Jones scored more fantasy points than any running back, and seven wide receivers and just three running backs made the top 10 of last year's flex scoring leaders. Only Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson and Doug Martin cracked the list.So if you decided to target wide receivers in the first round, I wouldn't blame you.But the first round isn't just about making the safest pick; it's about making the safest pick that maximizes value. And I still believe that this season, maximizing value means getting one of the elite running backs when you can. There are only a handful of players who seem like guarantees to be their teams' workhorses, as so many teams turn to a running-back-by-committee philosophy.That's why I have Adrian Peterson No. 1 overall and five running backs in my top 10. Yes, I worry about Peterson's age, Todd Gurley's health, the fact that David Johnson has onlyone season on his resume, the fact that we haven't seen Ezekiel Elliott play at all in the NFL yet and Lamar Miller's upside.But I also know that Peterson is the most consistent fantasy running back of the past decade, Gurley will be the centerpiece of the Los Angeles Rams offense, Johnson was unstoppable once he became Arizona's feature back, Ezekiel is a talented young player behind the league's best offensive line and Miller has been a top-10 running back two seasons in a row and heads to a Houston offense with talent in place.So yes, I'm not completely shying away from running backs early in the draft. I still think Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. should be top-five picks. For my money, tight end Rob Gronkowski has more value at tight end than any other player has at any other position, and A.J. Green is incredibly consistent and should have a monster season with Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu leaving this offseason.But if you can get an elite running back, do so early. They are going to thin out pretty quickly, while you can get quality wideouts down the board.To me, the first three rounds, at least, are about drafting safe, highly productive players. You shouldn't be taking too many chances. Most of the players on my list here have had several productive fantasy seasons in their careers and are in positions to do so again.Two players don't quite fit that formula, however: Allen Robinson and Thomas Rawls. So why are they worth a bit more risk'What I love about Robinson is that his production from a year ago is sustainable. He was targeted 153 times last season, eighth among wide receivers, suggesting that most of his production came from being a huge part of Jacksonville's offense and not something more unstable, like touchdown production.Yes, it's possible he won't record 14 touchdown receptions again. But even if that number dips, he should accumulate a ton of receptions and yards based on his usage alone, something his teammate, Allen Hurnswho was targeted just 103 times last year but caught 10 touchdown passescan't say.Robinson, then, seems like a safe bet to repeat as a top-10 fantasy wideout.Rawls, meanwhile, has the benefit of heading into the 2016 season as a feature back on an offense that loves to pound the ball on the ground. Consider that before 2015, Marshawn Lynch had four straight seasons of at least 280 carries and 310 total touches as Seattle's workhorse.Sure, it's fair to question if Rawls will ever go full Beast Mode with his opportunity. But he did rush for 830 yards last season when Lynch was hurt, averaging an impressive 5.6 yards per carry. What Rawls lacks in pedigree he makes up for in potential, making him a strong bet to post RB1 numbers this year.Quarterback and tight end (after Gronkowski) are two positions you can probably wait on this year and still find nice players, but if you want last year's MVP, Cam Newton, on your team,this is the round I'd take him.But carefully consider holding off on a quarterback. You can get amazing value later in your draft, especially since 12 players at the position last year averaged at least 17 fantasy points per game in standard leagues.And then there's Jordan Reed. He's a pretty big risk in the third round, but if you want him, that's when you'll have to get him. His injury history terrifies me, as does the fact that you can probably ignore tight end for a few more rounds and still get a solid player.But man, he was great last year. He's clearly Kirk Cousins' favorite target, he's the team's only real threat in the red zone and he's always been an excellent athlete at the position hampered by a history of injury concerns, so his breakout wasn't totally shocking. He's high-risk, high-reward in Round 3, but if you want to solidify your tight end position early in the draft, Reed makes a lot of sense.Round 4, to me, is when you want to carefully start considering your team composition. If you haven't selected a running back or wide receiver yet, now is probably the time. On the other hand, if you haven't taken a quarterback or tight end, you don't necessarily need to do so now unless an elite option is still available to you.So in Round 4, seek excellent value that fits a team need. This is where bounce-back candidates like Randall Cobb andEddie Lacyboth of whom have been strong fantasy producers in the pastmake sense.I always find this portion of the draft tricky. By Round 5, my instinct is to start filling out my starting lineup, but there are enough talented players left on the board that I still want to draft for value.So, much like in Round 4, consider your roster. If you still haven't drafted a quarterback or tight end yet,don't reach. You'll be able to find excellent values down the board. If you have onlyone running back or none, however, you're going to want to address the position in this round.No, players like Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte, Dion Lewis and Ryan Mathews don't feel like sexy picks. But if you wait and find yourself rummaging through the bargain bin at the position later in the draftor desperately scouring the waiver wire throughout the seasonyou'll be wishing you had solidified the position with a middle-of-the-road talent at this point in your draft.Still antsy about filling out your starting lineup' Now is a great round to start targeting quarterbacks. One of the elite options may have dropped if your league mates are waiting on the position, while safe options like Ben RoethlisbergerandDrew Breeswho are always threats to be top-five producers at the positionmay still be available.These rounds are also a reminder of just how deep wide receiver, however, as a number of players who can sneak into your slot on a regular basis should still be available. A lot of potential breakout performers should be available around this time as well. So if you loaded up on other positions, these rounds will offer you the chance to fill out your roster with low-end WR2 or solid WR3 options.At this point in the draft, you are looking for eitherbreakout players or solid players with low ceilings. Perhaps you want young players who should see bigger roles next season. Or veterans with changes of scenery or new coaches who could thrive in new systems.But don't ignore reliable players who won't earn you any awards for unearthing fantasy football's biggest surprise but will offer you steady points each week. If there's a breakout player you love, Round 7 is a good time to grab him. Otherwise, don't be afraid to take a player here with a limited upside, especially if you took a few chances earlier in the draft.Every roster needs balance. If you played it safe early, take a risk around this point in the draft. If you have a lot of boom-or-bust players, though, nab someone steady.This is another good point to grab a quarterback, at least in my rankings. If you grab Tom Brady or Carson Palmer, make sure you take a solid QB2 a few rounds later. Brady, because of his suspension. Palmer, because of his propensity to get injured.Otherwise, look for great values at wide receiver or running back to fill out your roster.See Round 8.As you can see, I think you'll be able to wait until the 10th round before the run on tight ends really hits. And you can't go wrong with any of these players.Travis Kelce is a reliable producer and Alex Smith's most trusted target. Jimmy Graham should have a bigger role in Seattle this year. Coby Fleener gets Brees and an offense that has always focused heavily on pass-catching tight ends. Zach Ertz will be a huge part of Doug Pederson's offense, as Kelce was in Kansas City last year. Tyler Eifert is this low only because of injury concerns; once healthy, he's Andy Dalton's favored weapon in the red zone.There is depth at tight end this year. Some of these players may go a bit earlier in drafts, but you can probably wait quite a bit before filling the position.Allscoringandpoints-againststats via ESPN standard-scoring leagues. You can follow TimothyRapponTwitter.
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