Recent history and on-paper potential both predicted Team USA and Spain would collide in the gold-medal matchup. That's where they met in the past two Olympics and what their respective rosters looked capable of this time around.But rather than play each other for the championship, they'll compete for a spot in the finals. Spain's 0-2 start to the Games put them in America's bracket, so the hoops heavyweights will lock horns one round ahead of schedule.Their 2008 and 2012 championship collisions were decided by a total of 18 points, and another nail-biter could be in the works.Team USA finally found some momentum in its 105-78 quarterfinal thrashing of Argentina, but the Americans won their previous three games by 16 points combined. Spain, meanwhile, has roared back from its early struggles and destroyed its last three opponents 293-199."We have ultimate respect for Spain," Team USA head coach Mike Krzyzewski said, per Cleveland.com's Chris Fedor. "They have as much talent and done as well as anybody besides us in the world."Spain is loaded with NBA talent past and present: Seven players hold contracts for the 2016-17 campaign, and three others have previously passed through its ranks. This is a test unlike any the Americans have faced so far.Can Spain spoil Team USA's title hopes and snap its 51-game winning streak' Or have the Americans found the formula for dispatching Spain and advancing to face the Australia-Serbia winner in Sunday's championship match'When:Friday, Aug. 19, at 2:30 p.m. ETWhere:CariocaArena 1; RiodeJaneiroLive Stream:NBC.comUSA's Quarterfinal LessonsTeam USA's lethargic play resurfaced early against Argentina, as the favorites stumbled out of the gates and into a 19-9 hole. There was no apparent effort or awareness on the defensive end, and the offense was a mess of turnovers, rushed shots and unimaginative play.Then, as quickly as the basketball gods could snap their fingers, Team USA stormed back to life and took complete control of the contest. It reeled off an awe-inducing 27-2 run, which featured 20 consecutive points."We got our swagger back," Paul George said,per The Undefeated'sJesse Washington.As impressive as the numbers were, the way they were tallied meant more:A group of NBA All-Stars looked how a group of NBA All-Stars should look. The offense followed the lead of Kevin Durant (27 points, 9-of-13 shooting) and Paul George (17 points, 8-of-14). The defense capitalized on its clear athletic advantages, flying to the basketball and closing down driving lanes."They began to hawk the ball and close up the paint on the defensive end," Sporting News' Sean Deveney wrote. "They fought for offensive rebounds. They worked for points inside.They found their dominant spirit against a quality opponent, for the first time here in Rio."This was the star-studded squad that was supposed to enjoy a relatively smooth climb to the championship podium. Durant should be assertive and unguardable. This defense should use its Go-Go-Gadget length to suffocate opposing attacks.But what allowed the Americans to awake from their slumber and deliver this type of performance'Coach K and multiple players cited better energy in their postgame comments. Moving DeMarcus Cousins to the second team allowed the 270-pound bruiser to feast on backup bigs and tally 15 points in less than 14 minutes. The Durant-George tandem provided clear leadership at both ends of the floor.If Team USA can carry these positive developments forward, then its quarterfinal contest could serve as a historical turning point. But much more work is needed for that to happen.Not to discredit Argentina, but it was built around an aging core and posted the lowest field-goal percentage in group play of any quarterfinalist. This wasn't the type of test Team USA faces ahead.Toppling Spain will require a different level of focus, intensity and execution.Spain's SurgeSpain's Rio run started with losses to quarterfinal loser Croatia and group-stage casualty Brazil. Even the Spaniards' first Olympic win was unimpressivea come-from-behind 96-87 victory over a Nigerian team that went 1-4 in Group B.But it's been a different tournament ever since. Starting with a 50-point demolition of Lithuania, Spain's last three opponents have been subjected to losses of 19 points or worse.At this point, there isn't a hotter team in the tournament. Spain has depth, two-way discipline and a clear leader in six-time NBA All-Star Pau Gasol. This team can score from all three levels, defend like crazyeven without Marc Gasol and Serge Ibakaand play with the type of precision that gave Team USA fits during group play.But that's assuming Spain is at full-strength, which isn't certain. Gasol is reportedly fighting a calf injury and may not be available for Friday's semifinal."He is not well, I can not say for sure that he is going to play," Spanish coach SergioScariolo told Spanish media, as translated by EuroHoops.net. "... We hope his condition to evolve well and at least be ready to help as much as he can his teammates in the game. I cannot say anything more right now."One would think Gasol will give it his all to be on the floor, because Spain's chances for an upset would dramatically decrease without him. The 36-year-old leads the team in points (17.0 points per game), rebounds (8.7), blocks (2.2) and three-point percentage (56.2 percent). He is both the offensive focal point and defensive backbone.Gasol was uncharacteristically quiet during Spain's quarterfinal win over France, however. He either matched or set 2016 personal Olympic lows in minutes (23), field-goal attempts (seven) and points (five). Spain still rolled without himthanks in large part Nikola Mirotic and Willy Hernangomez's combined 39 pointsbut lacks the depth to cover his absence against Team USA.IfGasol goes, though,Spain boasts the necessary offensive ingredients to bother an inconsistent American defense.There are stretch bigs in Gasol and Mirotic, who can pull USA's rim protectors away from the basket. There are tactical floor generals in Ricky Rubio and Sergio Rodriguez, who can exploit weak spots in the defensive coverage. There are snipers and slashers, who can pounce on the opportunities afforded by Team USA's sleepy off-ball defenders."This is another challenging team, so we have got to come in right," George said, per Reuters' Steve Keating. "They're good. ...They have a little bit of everything. They have shooters, big men, ball-handlers, scorers."If Spain controls tempo and forces Team USA into a half-court battle, this walking roadblock could derail the Americans' pursuit of gold.PredictionTeam USA has witnessed firsthand how tough potential gold-medal foes Australia and Serbia can be. But Coach K and Co. still hold Spain in a higher regard than the rest of the field."This is still the team that USA Basketball staffers privately fear the most," Steinwrote.And why not' This Spanish squad looks like the type of club built to stand toe-to-toe with Team USA.At full-strength, it has both the wisdom of experience and energetic youth. These players stay connected on both ends of the court, and there's enough talent to win some individual battles.But Team USA looks more engaged than it has at any point. The Americans just played their best game against a good team, and now they draw what they see as their stiffest competition.A focused Team USA will bring its best, and Spain won't have quite enough to keep pace.Prediction: USA 103, Spain 88Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter,@ZachBuckleyNBA.
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