Having caused three considerable upsets in their three finals to date, the momentum has gathered behind the Western Bulldogs to rewrite the history books and win their first AFL premiership since 1954.The Bulldogs' fairy tale has been the story of September in the AFL, with their fast, furious and ferocious brand of football winning fans across the nation. The Bulldogs won on the road against West Coast in Perth, Australia, knocked off three-time defending champions Hawthorn in a do-or-die semi-final and then went on the road again to edge out GWS in a thrilling Preliminary Final.That was the Dogs' first Preliminary Final win since 1961, ending a run of seven straight defeats in the penultimate game of the season.In doing so, they have become the first team in AFL history to qualify for a Grand Final from seventh on the ladder, with the final eight system having been in operation since 1994.So does the dream end against Sydney at the SCG on Saturday' The market says yes. According to website AustralianGambling the Swans are $1.62 favorites to win their third premiership in 11 years. The Bulldogs are rated $2.35 to end their 52-year premiership drought. The line is currently set at 10.5 points.The Swans may have won the Minor Premiership by finishing at the top at the end of the regular season, but they have not done it easily this finals series. They suffered a shock first-round loss to the Giants and had to come back through the semi-finals, where they beat Adelaide.They then traveled to Melbourne to play Geelong as underdogs in a Preliminary Final and put on an extraordinary display in the first half to stun the Cats and make a third Grand Final in five years. On that form, and their superior record during the regular season, they deserve to be favorites, but these teams met once this season in Sydney for a four-point Western Bulldogs win.The Big Win Little Win market for this match sees the Swans at 1-39 points the most favored option at $2.10, while the Dogs to win in the 1-39 range is listed at $3. A big Swans win of 40 points or more will pay $4.33, while the Dogs to win by over 40 is $11.As a point of reference, of the 17 Grand Finals played this century, 10 have been decided by a margin of fewer than 40 points, the other seven by more than 40 points.Those who think we are due for a close Grand Final can take the $2.63 on offer on the margin being under 15.5 points, but do so with the knowledge that of that past 17 Grand Finals, just six have been decided by less than 16 points. In terms of total AFL/VFL history, it is 43 of 120 Grand Finals.Of course, there have been three drawn Grand Finals, the most recent in 2010, with the odds of that occurring again in 2016 quoted at $51. You can bet that will shorten significantly as the week rolls on, because of the amount of emotional money that influences the market.That emotional money is already evident by the fact that the Bulldogs are shorter than they would be in normal circumstances. The overwhelming sentiment supports a Bulldogs win, even though the Swans' Preliminary Final form was stronger and they boast a wealth of experience on the big stage.It has been estimated that over 600,000 Australians will have a bet on either the AFL or NRL Grand Final this weekend, according to AustralianGambling, and with around 300 markets available on which to wager, there are no shortage of options.
Click here to read full news..
