The first day of the 2016WGC-HSBC Champions in China has ended and Sweden'sRikardKarlberg holds a one-shot lead at this early stage. He shot an eight-under 64 at Sheshan International Golf Club to take the initiative in what promises to be a highly competitive tournament.American Ricky Fowler finished the day close behind with a seven-under 65 while Russell Knox, last years winner, carded an impressive six-under 66.The first day was less successful for world No. 3 Rory McIlroy, who could only muster a one-under 71 on a rainy outing in China.Leaderboard AnalysisKarlberg deserves the headlines after an excellent round that nearly landed him a resounding lead at the top. The 29-year-old was nine under heading into the final hole but tripped up at the last, taking four shots to make it to the green and agonisingly missing his par putt. The board looks tight, but Karlbergs rivals will be all-too aware that the Swede could have opened up a surprisingly large lead.This was not a day for the favourites. The weather conditions perhaps knocked both McIlroy and Dustin Johnson off their stride, with neither golfer getting anywhere near Karlbergs score. Johnson can perhaps be excused an off dayhis double-bogey six on 16 tainted what was an otherwise decent opening round to give him a score of 74but McIlroys form followed a worrying recent trend.Before his Deutsche Bank Championship triumph in September McIlroy was ranked first in strokes-gained driving and 130thin strokes-gained putting, as per Neil Tappin for Golf Monthly.It seems that his putting woes have returned.He only sank one birdie on Thursday, at the 16th, and went on a poor run of six consecutive pars after the 18th (his ninth). His putting was simply not up to scratch, and it will take a remarkable comeback to see him atop the leaderboard on Sunday."I feel I hit the ball well," said McIlroy, as per Agence France-Presse (via South China Morning Post). "Greens are soft and obviously there's a lot of footprints. I feel I did everything okay. I just didn't really get any momentum going."Many of the favourites appeared to struggle, which suggests that we will enjoy a surprising and hard-fought few days in China. Expect the leaderboard to change significantly over the coming days, given that US PGA Champion Jimmy Walker (78), Masters champion Danny Willett (74) and Johnson all had days to forget. Players to WatchPaul CaseyThe English golfer has enjoyed an excellent couple of months after finishing second in the Deutsche Bank Championship and second in the BMW Championships. His confident form has continued into the HSBC Champions tournament, with Casey scoring a very respectable five-under 67 to put him joint fourth.Bad days for the likes of McIlory and Johnson makes it very difficult to predict who will emerge victorious on Sunday, but based on form alone Casey is certainly worth keeping an eye on. A similarly strong display on Friday could make him the new favourite.Russell KnoxLast years winner is hoping to become the first person to win this tournament in consecutive years, and his chances of doing so seem to have improved after a fine session on Thursday. Knoxs scorecard was blemish-free and included a run of four birdies in a row, bringing back memories of his remarkable victory on this course 12 months ago, as PGA Tour were quick to point out:The Scottish golfer is more established than he was in 2015, when he ranked 85th in the world, and may feel that momentum is with him after channeling last years performance at the Sheshan International Golf Club.McIlroy is not out of the running yet, but Friday will be a crucial day for those struggling in the lower reaches of the leaderboard. Out of nowhere, Knox, Casey, Fowler, and Karlberg are the favourites now.
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