The top-seeded Boston Celtics return home for Game 5 on Wednesday even with the eighth-seeded Chicago Bulls in their best-of-seven first-round playoff series and look to take a 3-2 series lead as big home favorites.The Celtics lost the first two games at TD Garden before rebounding with two wins at the United Center after the Bulls lost point guard Rajon Rondo to a fractured thumb.Point spread: The Celtics opened as eight-point favorites; the total is at 203, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 104.3-98.2, Bulls (NBA picks on every game)Why the Bulls can cover the spreadChicago is still hoping Rondo will be able to play in the series, and maybe even in Game 5, per Shams Charania of The Vertical (h/t NBA.com). That gives the Bulls some light at the end of the tunnel if they can find a way to win at least one of the next two games to stave off elimination.Backers were pleasantly surprised to see a different Rondo in the playoffs after his struggles during the regular season, and Isaiah Canaan is expected to start in his place until he is back. Canaan logged his first minutes in the series in Game 4 and scored 13 points in 34 minutes to go along with three assists.Why the Celtics can cover the spreadBoston still has the best Isaiah and top point guard in this series whether Rondo comes back or not, and that has been proved throughout the first four games. Isaiah Thomas tied his series high with 33 points in a 104-95 victory in Game 4 on Sunday despite a 1-of-9 performance from beyond the three-point arc. Thomas drove to the basket with ease and helped the Celtics overcome a rally by the hosts in the third quarter that saw them trail briefly before cruising to an easy win.Thomas also scored 33 versus Rondo in Game 1, and he has played with more confidence since getting a chance to spend time with his family before the team visited Chicago after his younger sister's untimely death. Before losing the first two games, they had also won four in a row both straight up and against the spread against the Bulls at home.Smart betting pickThe two best players in this series have been Thomas and Jimmy Butler of the Bulls. Like Thomas, Butler too scored 33 in Game 4, but the difference was that his teammates did not provide him with much support. Dwyane Wade had just 11 points on 5-of-12 shooting, and Chicago does not have many other scoring options.If Rondo is still out, Canaan will need to step up and score in double figures again for the Bulls to have any shot to cover, which looks unlikely considering how poorly they have played since Rondo went down. Bet Boston with confidence to win Game 5 by double digits and beat the spread on the Vegas odds.NBA betting trendsThe total has gone under in seven of Chicago's last nine games.Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road.Boston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games at home.All NBA lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Reports official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
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