London has long bucked national electoral trends. Will it again

JUST as London turned out to be an island of Remain in a sea of Brexit in last year's referendum on EU membership, so the capital could buck the national trend again on June 8th. Labour certainly hopes so. For most of the past half-century, and especially since Tony Blair's landslide victory in 1997, Labour has polled better in the capital than elsewhere in the country (see chart). In 2015, despite being almost wiped out in Scotland and losing seats in the rest of England, Labour gained seven MPs in London, increasing their tally to 45 out of 73.This year, whereas the Tories have a commanding lead in the national polls, in London Labour is holding its own, at least according to a YouGov survey taken just before the election was called. As Tony Travers of the London School of Economics argues, among Labour MPs with marginal constituencies, those in London 'probably have the best chance of hanging on to their seat in the country.'That comes back to the...Continue reading
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