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A 'hard Brexit' could cost the EU 99 billion by 2020

Published by Business Insider on Tue, 16 Jan 2018


A no-deal "hard" Brexit would cost the remaining 27 EU countries 99.5 billion ($137 billion) in lost trade and output by 2020, according to UK research group Oxford Economics.The UK would still likely be the biggest loser from leaving the EU without a deallosing out on 125 billion in output by 2020.LONDONA no-deal "hard" Brexit would cost the remaining 27 EU countries 99.5 billion ($137 billion) in lost trade and output by 2020, according to UK research group Oxford Economics.While the UK would still likely be the biggest loser from leaving the EU without a deallosing out on 125 billion in output by 2020the EU would also suffer a big economic blow much higher than previous estimates, Oxford Economics said.The analysis comes as the UK prepares to enter the crucial second round of Brexit negotiations, during which both sides will seek to clarify their future trading relationship. While most analyses have focused on the impact of a no-deal scenario for the UK, Oxford Economics' report highlights the risks for both sides should the UK fall back on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, which would result in costly tariffsand increase border delays on goods.The analysis suggests the EU would lose out on around 44.4 billion directly in exports and imports should the UK fall back on World Trade Organisation rules, which would see costly tariffs charged between the UK and EU countries. That figure rises to 99.5 across the 27 member countries once firms lower-down in the supply chainthe makers of car parts, for exampleare considered.Join the conversation about this storyNOW WATCH: A crypto expert explains the difference between the two largest cryptocurrencies in the world: bitcoin and Ethereum
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