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Amazon could unleash a secret weapon to counter Trump's attacks over the US Postal Service (AMZN)

Published by Business Insider on Fri, 06 Apr 2018

President Donald Trumplaunched a barrage of attacks on Twitter claimingAmazon has taken advantage of the US Postal Service.Trump reportedly wants Amazon to pay more in shipping costs to the USPS, according to aVanity Fair report.A UBS analyst says the move may have unintended consequences by causing Amazon to double down on its internal delivery efforts through Amazon Prime.You can view Amazon's stock price in real time here.President Donald Trump's threats to raise Amazon'scosts of doing business with the US Postal Service(USPS) over allegedly taking advantage of the carrier could have unintended consequences, prompting the e-commerce behemoth to unleash its secret weaponAmazon Prime.In recent days, Trump has launched a barrage of attacks against Amazon, claiming the company is avoiding paying its fair share of taxes and is"costing the United States Post Office massive amounts of money for being their Delivery Boy."Yet the threats could induce Amazon to move away from using the USPS for deliveries by either going with other delivery providers or developing its own delivery service internally, particularly through Prime Now, Amazon's service that delivers household items and essentials within two hours for free, according to one analyst."USPS is cognizant of the positive impact private shippers have had to USPS financials & recognize the elasticity of units from a company like AMZN (i.e. can accel. own last mile efforts &/or reposition vol. to others)," Eric Sheridan, an analyst at UBS, wrote in a note to clients."In a worst case scenario (USPS prices up mid-teens), we think downside risk to our '19E GAAP OI is 11-16% (or $1.2-1.7bn) with a more likely scenario that AMZN accelerates last-mile build out."Should USPS raise shipping prices by between 5% and 25% for Amazon, it could represent a downside risk of 11-16% for the company, Sheridan says. However, he believes Amazon makes up around a quarter of USPS's competitive products revenue, or revenue from package delivery as opposed to traditional first-class mail, reducing the likelihood that the postal service will go through with such a plan.Additionally, the key to Amazon's e-commerce dominance has been its ability to deliver goods in a timely fashion and at minimal cost to both the distributor and consumer. Therefore, accelerated efforts to internally delivergoods from its fulfillment centers to theirfinaldestination would likely mitigate any intended effects of the postal service's potential price hike.Despite slipping this past week, Amazon's stock was trading higher on Thursday at $1,445 per share. It was up 22.19% for the year.Read more about Amazon's dominance in the cloud computing space.SEE ALSO:Amazon is the 'gold standard' when it comes to cloud computingJoin the conversation about this storyNOW WATCH: Wall Street's biggest bull explains why trade war fears are way overblown
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