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Israel election: early exit polls suggest Netanyahu is in trouble

Published by Yahoo on Wed, 18 Sep 2019


Israel was holding its breath on Tuesday after early election exit polls suggested Benjamin Netanyahu's centrist rivals had won more seats in parliament, potentially endangering the prime minister's 13 years in power. While no final results were available, two out of three early exit polls indicated that Mr Netanyahu's Likud had fallen slightly behind Blue & White, the centrist coalition led by former army general Benny Gantz.A third poll showed the parties tied. The exit polls, which have been wrong in the the past, suggested that neither Mr Gantz nor Mr Netanyahu had a clear path to forming a majority coalition government, which likely means weeks of post-election negotiations before a final result is clear. There was no immediate reaction from either Likud or Blue & White and both sides appeared to be waiting for more complete results before making statements on victory or defeat. But if the results held, it would be a remarkable set back for Mr Netanyahu, who is Israel's longest-serving prime minister and has held power continuously for more than a decade through a string of clear election victories. Letters from Jerusalem RHS One figure who may play a kingmaker role in coalition negotiations is Avigdor Lieberman, Mr Netanyahu's former defence minister who turned against angrily against his former boss after the last election in April. Despite hailing the political Right, Mr Lieberman refused to join Mr Netanyahu's coalition and denied the prime minister a majority. Mr Netanyahu then called an unprecedented second election. The exit polls suggested Mr Lieberman's small secular nationalist party, Yisrael Beiteinu, had improved its standing and could now hold the balance of power in coalition negotiations. Mr Lieberman has been coy about his intentions but has hinted that he might back Mr Gantz, a secular liberal. Both men have spoken about the need to counter the influence of Israel's ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties and of forcing Mr Netanyahu from office. Avigdor Lieberman could be a major player in post-election negotiations Credit: AP Photo/Markus Schreiber, File The first stage of the post-election negotiations will be for Israel's president, Reuven Rivlin, to survey party leaders in the divided parliament and assess whether Mr Gantz or Mr Netanyahu has more support. Mr Lieberman's backing is likely to be crucial as both men try to convince the president they have the best chance of forming a majority government. The process of trying to cobble together a coalition could take weeks and analysts could not rule out the possibility of a third electionif neither side is able to get a majority. Both Blue and White and Likud won 35 seats in the last election in April. When Mr Netanyahu was unable to form a majority government he called an unprecedented second election to try win an overall majority. If Mr Netanyahu is unable to cobble together a coalition this time, he faces the possible risk of a mutiny within his own Likud party. Senior Likud figures have so far insisted they will not rise up against their leader. 'It will never happen. We are totally against anybody telling the Likud who to vote for,' Nir Barkat, a senior Likud MP, toldThe Telegraph. But Blue & White believes Likud officials could eventually overthrow Mr Netanyahu if they believe he has become a drag on the party's prospects of holding onto power. The election followed a similar script to the one that preceded it in April, focusing less on policy differences and more on the central question of whether or not Mr Netanyahu should stay in office after 13 years in power. The prime minister presented himself as an indispensable leader and the only man with the stature and experience on the world stage to guide Israel through the dangerous currents of the Middle East. His campaign put up massive posters showing him shaking hands with Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India. 'Netanyahu: a different league,' the posters read. 'I don't like Bibi but he's the best person for the job,' said Shula Feldman, 39-year-old British-Israeli originally from London. 'For me, the issue of security overrides everything.' Like many Likud voters, Mrs Feldman, said she believed the criminal prosecution against Mr Netanyahu was at least partly motivated by politics. 'I don't think there would be charges if he didn't have so many enemies,' she said. Mr Netanyahu also repeated campaign tactics that have worked for him in the past including making increasingly extreme pledges to his Right-wing voter base, inciting against Israel's Arab minority, and issuing panicked warnings that he was going to lose. Less than a week before the election, Mr Netanyahu pledged to annex the Jordan Valley into Israel, an unprecedented step that would destroy any lingering hopes of a Two-State solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It was widely seen as an effort to energise his voter base. Facebook suspended a chatbot belonging to Mr Netanyahu's Likud party after it sent visitors a message warning of'Arabs who want to destroy us all ' women, children and men'. For his part, Mr Gantz offered himself as a unifying figure who would bring Israel together after years of Mr Netanyahu's divisive rule. He charged the prime minister with seeking to cling to power only to protect himself from the criminal corruption charges swirling around him. 'The time has come when the majority takes care of everybody and not the minority takes care of one person,' Mr Gantz said, alleging that Mr Netanyahu would rely on the votes of extremists to pass an immunity law that would shield him from prosecution. Mr Gantz, a liberal, staked out a more aggressively secular position than he did in the last election and promised to challenge the power of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties which Mr Netanyahu has relied on. Mr Gantz said his hope was to form 'a secular unity government' led by Blue & White but which also included Likud and the secular nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party. However, Mr Gantz said that Likud could only join such a unity government if it first ditched Mr Netanyahu as its leader. Senior Likud figures have said so far said they will remain loyal to Mr Netanyahu. Moshe Mordechai, a 67-year-old driving instructor, said he normally voted Likud but now intended to back Mr Gantz.'It's time for a change. Gantz impresses me and I have had enough of Bibi,' he said.
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