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Gaddafi: A prognosis into Libya's future

Published by Nigerian Compass on Tue, 25 Oct 2011


"I always find it fascinating; why don't leaders know when it is the right time to leave, when they're on the descent' He (Muammar Gaddafi) was considered a liberating, brave leader at one point'.The above prologue is a statement credited to the former Chief International Correspondent of Cable News Network (CNN), Christiane Amanpour, shortly after Muammar Gaddafi's speech at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly Annual Summit in September, 2009, during which he tore and threw away the UN Charter.Exactly two years after Amanpour's submission; the eccentric megalomania's revolutionary 'Green book' now lies in tatters, his sprawling empires; in ruins. However, the name Muammar Gaddafi has been permanently etched into annals of global historical accounts and references; perhaps in the same league with equally despised despotic rulers like Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini; and of recent, Saddam Hussein. The brutal execution of Gaddafi as displayed in shocking and hard-to-believe blood soaked body of the once revered dictator on TV screens around the globe may have symbolically closed a painful episode of four decades of reign of fear and terror in Libya, but unfortunately with the immediate triumphant euphoria that followed the killing of Gaddafi comes the dawn of a new set of realities and possibilities; both politically and economically, not only for Libya, but for Africa, the Middle East, and the rest of the universe at large. Firstly, the most important and probably most difficult challenge which the death of Gaddafi poses for Libyans, especially the National Transactional Council (NTC) is the stabilisation of the domestic polity. This is very imperative as failure to quickly restore law and order may signal an invitation to anarchy and another round of unwanted civil conflict, going by the diabolic effects of the proliferation of ammunition in the hands of untrained young and tensed Libyans. An ample case study can be found in the immediate disturbing scenario in Iraq, in the aftermath of Saddam Hussein's topple from power in 2003. The same leadership vacuum which necessitated the 'after Hussein' crisis in Iraq is a strong possibility in Libya.Secondly, Libyans, principally the NTC hierarchy needs to galvanise and rally patriotism and nationalism behind the unity of a common sovereign for all. Without mincing words, the legitimacy of the new government will definitely be put to test; moreso in a multi-ethnic setting like Libya. Therefore, the membership of the new government must be all-inclusive without alienating any section of the country. Again, this will prevent an outbreak of a possible sectarian crisis, or conflict; as the case may be. Furthermore, some analysts have in recent times alleged a possible clash of ego and interests within the ranks of the NTC leadership. If confirmed; this may not augur well for the realisation of the huge burden of expectations coming from ordinary Libyans who are eager to enjoy a new lease of life after decades of enduring an iron-fisted rule.Thirdly, on the international stage; essentially in Africa, the new Libya must be embraced and given the necessary diplomatic recognition in welcoming her back into the comity of African States. This is extremely logical considering the fact that many of the rebel fighters have unnecessarily targeted, persecuted, and summarily executed sub-Sahara African immigrants, on the bogus pretext of being Gaddafi loyalists or mercenaries, hence, the need for African leaders to establish diplomatic interactions with the new steering wheel in Tripoli. In addition, many African leaders may probably be forced to take a cue from the unpalatable end of once-a-fellow comrade, and possibly consider an honourable exit from power and political relevance, sooner than later. The same is also expected of long-serving autocratic regimes in the Middle East as the callous execution of Gaddafi will most likely re-energise the revolutionary spirit and determination of protesters in Syria, Yemen, Bahrain and other places in the region, though this is not definitive. Surely, the Arab spring has eternally changed political postulations in the volatile region. Fourthly, the significance of the liberation of Libya cannot be tied to the NTC rebel fighters alone when one considers the open and sustained anti-Gaddafi campaign led by Western superpowers; basically the United States, Britain, and France. These superpowers not only used political and economic sanctions to weigh the dictator's regime down; they also actively combined alongside other allies to launch a massive military campaign against Gaddafi's forces, under the auspices of NATO, since March till date. Consequently, the termination of Gaddafi's reign and soul signalled a projection towards a direct and unimpeded Western access to the Arabian country's most sought-after natural endowment: the crude oil. Some have actually argued that the need to wrestle the control of crude oil from hard-to-deal-with Gaddafi indirectly motivated the West into intruding in Libya. The recent visits of France's Nicolas Sarkozy, Britain's David Cameroon, and US Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton is a pointer towards this assertion.In all, the death of Gaddafi will definitely go down in history as the anti-climax in the series of happenings which pervaded Libya over the last nine months. Notwithstanding, the country is delicately positioned for a change of political experience; the nature of which will only become clearer in the coming weeks and months.
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