Byron Wien Made 10 Big Predictions For 2014 ' Here's How They're Doing (DIA, USD, SPY, QQQ, IWM, TLT, JPY, EWJ, USO, DBC)

At the beginning of 2014, Blackstone Group vice chairman Byron Wien released his 10 surprise predictions for the markets and the economy.Wien is a legend on Wall Street, and his predictions are widely read and circulated at the beginning of the year.But with 2014 winding down and people starting to look ahead to what 2015 holds, it is only right that we take a look back and see how Wien did this year.Wien calls his predictions "surprise" predictions that the average investor would only assign a 1-in-3 chance of happening. And following form, Wien got some of these calls really right, some of them really wrong, and only a few were anywhere in-between.We scored Wien's predictions simply: 0 points for wrong predictions, 1 point for correct predictions, and 0.5 for predictions that were right down the middle.We Will Have A 'Dickensian' Market ' The Best Of Times, The Worst Of TimesRIGHTScore: 1/1Wien more or less nailed this one.In January, Wien wrote that we'd experience a "Dickensian market with the best of times and the worst of times." And not only have we seen the S&P 500 gain more than 10% again and the bond market rally, but there is a very good chance you're not happy about it!We saw steep correction in tech stocks in March, a similar plunge in oil & gas stocks recently, the price of oil has cratered, and in October we got our first 10% correction in two years during a violent few weeks for the market.But then we gained it all back and then some. Quickly.We only ding Wien a point because he saw total returns for the S&P 500 this coming in at 20%: right now they're at about 14%.The US Economy Finally Breaks Out Of Its DoldrumsRIGHTScore: 1/1Two for two so far!Wien said that the US economy would "break out of its doldrums" with growth exceeding 3% and the unemployment rate moving towards 6%.In October, the unemployment rate fell to 5.8% and the most recent revision to third quarter GDP showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.9%.In the second quarter, GDP grew at an annualized pace of 4.6%, and many on Wall Street expect fourth quarter GDP growth to come in at around 2.5%.The first quarter of this year saw a sharp GDP contraction, but that has been largely dismissed off due to severe winter weather.The US Dollar StrengthensRIGHTScore: 1/1Wien saw the US dollar strengthening in 2014, with the dollar eventually trading below $1.25 against the euro and buying 120 Japanese yen.Currently, the dollar is at $1.23 against the euro and 119.6 against the yen, and overall the dollar has enjoyed a huge bull market all year.So this one was just dead on.See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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