By Festus EriyeNigeria is in dire straits and thats stating the obvious. On virtually all fronts the nation needs rescue. The insurgency in the Northeast, the activities of bandits and other malcontents in the Northwest, and kidnappers right across the country, has created an unprecedented crisis of insecurity.On the economic front it is equally gloomy. A sluggish recovery has been thrown off kilter by the COVID-19 pandemic which has resulted in company closures and massive job losses. Unstable oil prices have put pressure on foreign reserves, draining confidence in the naira. Today, it is exchanging at over N400 to the dollar and continuing to trend south.Compounding the miserable picture is escalating ethnic tension largely driven by inability of the authorities to deal with recurring farmers-herders conflict. Today, we have a slow-burn conflict waiting for some lunatic to sprinkle petrol on it.In a desperate move, Buhari recently ordered that anyone found illegally wielding AK-47 rifles be shot on sight. The directive has ignited a debate as to whether he has the powers to order the extra-judicial execution of any criminalno matter how grievous their offence might be.The extreme nature of this directive paints a picture of desperation in government circles to bring a measure of stability to the embarrassing security situation. But at best its just a reactive move which doesnt address the underlying conditions causing banditry and kidnapping to thrive.What is driving young men into the wilds' Absence of opportunity pure and simple. There are very few jobs and crime has become the quickest way to a life of comfort for many who would ordinarily be spending their days in grinding poverty.In the north the recourse is to the gun and violent action, down South an army of young people have become adept at perpetrating internet and other financial frauds. The more the EFCC and other security agencies apprehend them, the more they multiply like germ culture.This isnt sustainable on any level. Law and order as well as strong arm tactics like shooting bandits can only be short term measures. We desperately need ideas that would address root causes, make violent crime less attractive, while offering viable alternatives to those who are tempted.But no matter how brilliant these ideas are they are worthless if you cant get into government to implement them. This point was driven home by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to his colleagues in the Labour Party prior to leading them to power in 1997.Before then, the party were serial losers whose extreme leftist policies didnt connect with the mass of the people who preferred something more centrist. Blair hammered home the message that the brightest ideas were useless if Labour remained in the opposition doldrums.Buharis administration is winding down and the air is already thick with the manoeuvring and intriguing towards the next general elections. It would be expecting too much to think hes going to solve all our existing challenges in the time left.So those who are already dreaming of sitting in his seat in two years should actually be outlining what they would do differently with the power they seek.What we are seeing emerging is the same pattern of tendencies organising themselves within and without major parties to seize power for power sake.It is playing out in APC where every dodge is being deployed. The ongoing registration and revalidation exercise isnt just some innocuous measure to revitalise an organisation; its a useful tool in some peoples grand plan to corner power.Read Also:We are ready to take over in 2023, says PDPThe struggle is equally playing out in the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) where the calculus revolves around geography and ethnicity. This factor is also driving the scheming in the ruling party.People often say issues dont count in Nigerian politics, only personality and ethnicity. That may be true to some extent, but it doesnt tell the whole story. In 2015, Jonathan, a southerner ran against Buhari, a northerner.The ethnic undercurrent was quite strong as the north was electrified by the fact that their son was running, and they voted for him with a vengeance on Election Day. There were tales of northern politicians in PDP working against their party and voting for Buhari. There were interesting instances of someone running for a lesser office on another partys platform hitching themselves to the bandwagon by placing the presidents photograph on their campaign poster!So, ethnicity is always a strong factor. But 2015 was also about issues. Many who voted against Buhari from north to south did so based on the perception that Jonathan couldnt handle the challenges of insecurity and the economy. His administration, painted as corruption-ridden, was contrasted with Mai Gaskiyas looming dispensation. The opposition successfully defined the former president as clueless.Four years later, it was two northernersAtiku Abubakar and Buharigoing toe to toe. Ethnicity was no longer such an emotional thing. Head or tail the region won. So, for the opposition to have any chance of capturing power, they had to do so on the basis of issues.Many say PDP did a poor job on that frontagainst a government campaigning on a record of modest accomplishments. They also had a flawed candidate in the former Vice President.Come 2023, the best way to guarantee that the elections are about the troubling issues confronting Nigeria, is to ensure that candidates of the leading parties emerge from the same zone. Given the existing zoning arrangements, after eight years of Buhari there should be no argument about power rotating to the south. But then politicians are not famous for keeping promises.The same argument can be made for the PDP that, in the national interest, after eight years rule by a northerneralbeit from another partythe next candidate should be from the south.An even more compelling reason for this national consensus for parties to zone to the same region, is the rising level of ethnic tensions. A presidential contest with this age-long ethnic rivalry in the background can only deepen the unprecedented levels of hate in the land.Buhari came to power offering to resolve the issues of insecurity, economy and corruption. Six years on hes still fire-fighting. On every one of those fronts we need an intense national examination of what the major parties and their candidates are offering as solutions for a nation searching for the way forward.
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