The more I try to dismiss it, the more it tries to envelop my thoughts. A raging storm is gathering over my country and a heavy rain may be in the offing. The lightning and thunder sound exactly like those my mother once told me happened last in the late sixties.The signs are so unsettling that it has made me suddenly begin to visualize those tragic tales in our history books and the indelible scars littered around our national landscape. It was one single devastating rain that changed the architecture of our nation, almost irredeemably. Is history about to repeat itself' Is it better to sit akimbo in mute indifference, as if all is well' In my near 40 years of existence, there was no time the cracks and crevices on the entity called Nigeria became so obvious. I must confess that these subtle signs have always been there both in private and public life but the covert nature of the manifestations meant that we could pretend and tag along. Whenever there was an occasional out bursts of reality, our pretentious leaders always had new explanations to offer to either console or deceive us after the damage has been done. The false integration and mutual suspicion must continue, as along as it serves the interest of the fat cats.It sounds like the story will soon change. The wave of gloominess has grown so deep that it is now difficult for anyone to ignore. I have tried, without success, to trace the source the current divisive ferocity and almost complete erosion of national cohesion. Pundits point to the drama that played out after the unfortunate demise of our former President. Others associate the results of the 2011elections as possible sources of grievance of those who are allegedly generating the current discord in the polity.Amazingly many people are yet to get over what has become an unavoidable reality. Their body language, actions and inactions across the country have taught us new lessons and reinforced old prejudices. Two descriptions of the Nigerian reality best capture the mood. The first is the description that Nigeria is just a geographical expression, while the second is the assertion that Nigeria is an amorphous amalgam of individuals busy pretending to be a people. Both claims came from individuals who are so experienced about national affairs that one can hardly ignore their views. Could it be that the truism in those statements are about to play out fully' Many Nigerians believe that the only reason for pretensions to collectivism on the Nigerian project is the regular availability of monthly cake for to be shared. This consumerist approach has made us a global poster child for resource curse as any attempt at national development always end up in chaos. Those whose responsibility it is to develop Nigeria have not reached even a simple consensus yet. The universal language is plunder, while rent seeking and patronage is a shared vision that permeates the barricades of ethnicity and religion created by the Nigerian elite. In all, the common man in Kano or Ibadan, Aba or Yola is yet to feel the change in baton. Pervasive poverty, hungerand frustration cut across every tribe and religion. Those who have contributed to our precarious predicament also cut across all tribes and all religions in Nigeria. We must use hindsight to blame them as a collective if we have to. The way we express our frustrationat this time will matter a lot. We must not allow ourselves to incur more losses or offer ourselves as tools for the same people who are architects of our misfortune. Now back to my worry. Can Nigeria afford secession as the background murmurings indicate' Indeed anyone who dares to conduct a Sudan type referendum in Nigeria will confirm why I am worried. The reasons could be both genuine and justifiable but I call for caution. Nothing can be more counterproductive at this time. I argue that in as much as we have co-existed in this false marriage for this long, our best bet will be to continue to live with our mistake. However there is a caveat. Government must now consider a model of developmental federalism-a structural devolution that significantly reduces the benefits of winning as well as the costs of losing Nigerian Presidency. That is the only way to overcome the current confrontational and neo patrimonial politics that is threatening tear us apart. All over the world, oligarchies are being challenged; dictators are being disgraced and universal orthodoxies are being questioned. Ours will not be different. Many people who have hitherto been seen as invincible have been humiliated and even put to death. In an information world, these realities will impact on all global citizens. For those who are drumming tones of violence, this is a time to rethink. No one knows who the biggest losers would be. Many may be caught in the cross fire especially now that our self-inflicted labels has made escape to anywhere increasingly difficult. Igwe lives in Washington DC. He can be reached on ucheigwe@gmail.com.
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