Those being touted for presidency in 2015 may miss the goal post, writes Regional Editor, Olawale Rasheed, observing that only the reluctant had, so far, been opportune to rule the nation since independence in 1960.Politicians are classic optimists withstrong beliefs that calculativeminds, at times, secure political power. This is sometimes right, but, more often than not, wrong. In Nigerian presidential political history, it is curious that those who determinedly set out to clinch the presidency always ended up losing it. From independence to date, the number one seat mostly fell on the laps of the unexpected, while those thoroughly prepared were usually sidelined in the power game.In the Second Republic, the internal politics within the defunct National Party of Nigeria (NPN) favoured the least expected of the pack. In a race where Mallam Adamu Ciroma and Dan Masamin Kano, Maitama Sule, were determined contenders, the ticket and eventual presidency went to Alhaji Shehu Shagari. The power wielders within the party then settled for the less mercurial former teacher in a hotly contested presidential primaries of the party.In the aborted Third Republic, there were powerful presidential contenders who, saw nothing between them and the presidency. Very rich and truly entrenched, they set out to claim the elusive presidency, committing everything they had to the project. The Second Republic Senate Leader, Dr Abubakar Olusola Saraki, was an endowed contender with all it takes to prosecute a presidential project. General Shehu Yar 'Adua not only had the financial muscle, he was also a member of the power elite with intertwined military contacts and influence. Mallam Ciroma, then a former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and minister in several ministries, repeated his bid which he lost narrowly to former President Shehu Shagari in 1979. Others include former security agency boss, Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi and many others.The late MKO Abiola who vied for the presidency since the Second Republic was close to realising the dream. Yet, he lost it with fatal end. The late Yar 'Adua in the long process of pursuing his ambition also met a fatal end. Ironically, an industrialist who was never a partisan politician and who never aspired for the presidency, Chief Earnest Shonekan, today has the appellation of a former Head of State around his name.At the beginning of the Fourth Republic, a few would have insured that the President of the Republic was still in prison. Even when many politicians like former Vice-President Alex Ekwueme were rallying deserved support across the country, the hand of fate had anointed somebody else. For those at the Jos convention of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 1999, a few would have said that Dr Ekwueme would not secure the party's ticket. As was the case in 1979 when Alhaji Shagari beat both Ciroma and Sule, General Olusegun Obasanjo defeated the former vice-president and emerged president in 1999.At transition stage in 2007, Dr Peter Odili repeated the feat of the late General Yar'Adua when he criss-crossed the nation, demonstrating the human and material capacity to secure the presidency. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar even judicially defeated a sitting president to get his name on the ballot. Few weeks to the primary, an unexpected Umaru Yar'Adua was propped unto the stage and into the presidential villa; he entered on 29 May, 2007. Of course, the Jonathan presidency is a classical demonstration of that unseen or inexplicable hands in the determination of the nation's leadership.Interestingly, the phenomenon of the unexpected adorning presidential garb is not limited to civilian leadership. The late General Aguiyi Ironsi's emergence as Head of State after the 1966 coup was clearly circumstantial. The same scenario played out when the young Yakubu Gowon was asked to take over the reins of power after the counter coup. It was also on record that the late Murtala Muhammed was only the public face of a caucus involving the like of General Obasanjo, Theophilus Danjuma, Gusau and others. Of course, General Obasanjo reluctantly took over after the assassination of his boss in 1977.The emergence of Muhammadu Buhari in 1984 followed a similar pattern. Behind him then were the like of Generals Ibrahim Babangida, Bello Gusau and Tunde Idiagbon. The internal dynamics of that coup showed that Buhari was never ambitious about ruling the nation. A possible deviation from the pattern may be the presidency of General Babangida who many believed had nursed the ambition of leadership for quite a long time before the exit of Buhari and Idiagbon. Of course the late Sani Abacha was invited by gullible politicians to take over governance.The preceding may be a pattern current presidential hopefuls may strategically take into account. 'Well, no one can predict how this race works. So don't say someone should not run for the presidency,' a top northern politician noted when discussing alleged presidential bid of a former vice-president. Another politician commenting on the same issue noted that 'that office is something else, but there is nothing wrong in trying one's luck.'Even those in the system are, at times, at a loss as to the determining forces in the race. But what are the strategies adopted by all these reluctant, but internally ambitious presidents and heads of state the nation has produced since independence' In several chats with some political leaders, various reasons are often adduced for successes recorded by these hesitant leaders. The most repeated of the reasons has to do with being a safe candidate.But what defines a safe candidate' Here, opinions also differ. But a safe candidate is probably the one who will not rock the boat in term of maintaining the status quo of power relations in the country. This may be simplistic because the issue of 'which status quo' will pop up for definitions. Maybe it is likely the status quo as defined by the clique or caucus subsisting during transition politics.It could also be a candidate who has mastered the art of being at the right place at the right time, within the right caucus at the right time. Maybe it is the one who is skilful in concealing his true nature to even the deepest of political wizards by being rated as clueless, weak, vulnerable and manipulatable during transition politics. About three or so cases suffice in the nation's presidential history.Some other analysts believe such lucky leaders secure such favours, not because of skills or qualifications. In the opinions of these analysts, such candidates are foisted on the nation by a cabal of power elite who are bent on sustaining their hold on state power. The consistent last minutes manipulations of power transition they see as a power elite conspiracy against the mass of the people who are deprived of rights to pick their leaders.Whatever may be the reasons behind these historical trends, current contenders for the 2015 race may be running against history unless they re-appraise their strategies before taking the plunge. If the most determined in the past failed to get there, aspirants for 2015 may have to be schooled in this unexplained art of getting the crown even when you don't openly run for it.In effect, it was neither financial muscle nor the strength of political network that had, so far, determined many of the occupants of the nation's presidency. Many may consider this to be a political abnormality. Yet, it is a fact of history as recent as our subsisting political life.
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