THREE long years before 2015 ' which, all things being equal should be another election year ' and the first year in office of President Jonathan, the camp of politicians is already in a seemingly reckless frenzy.They appear unperturbed, that after elections, some reasonable period ought to be allowed for an elected government to show capacity or the lack of it, after which, efforts could be made to settle the matter at the next elections.But the political system does not work with logic and strict adherence to laid-down processes and procedure. That is why intrigues and plots have taken over the Nigerian habitually volatile polity.An Abuja High Court is the venue of an action filed by one Cyriacus Njoku, a supposed member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Zuba Ward of the Gwagwalada Area Council, Abuja, who approached the court to secure an order barring President Jonathan from vying for presidency in 2015, even though the president has not announced any interest to that effect.Njoku, who claims he intends to contest the presidency in faraway 2015, but who cannot wait for the INEC to officially announce the timelines for that election at the appropriate time in, perhaps, 2014, contacted the court, asking it to determine 'whether Section 135(2) of the Constitution, which specifies a period of four years in office for the President, is only available or applicable to a person elected on the basis of an actual election or includes one in which a person assumes the position of President by operation of law, as in the case of Dr. Goodluck Jonathan.'He also wants to know, 'whether Section 137(1)(b) of the Constitution, which provides that a person shall not be qualified for election to the office of President, if he has been elected to such office at any two previous elections, applies to the first defendant (Jonathan), who first took an oath of office as substantive President on May 6, 2010 and took a second oath as President on May 29, 2011.'Consequently, Njoku seeks a declaration that the President's tenure of office began on May 6, 2010 when his first term began and his two terms shall end on May 29, 2015, after taking his second oath of office on May 29, 2011; and by virtue of Section 136(1)(b) of the Constitution, no person (including the first defendant) shall take the oath of allegiance and the oath of office prescribed to in the Seventh Schedule to this Constitution more than twice.He equally urged the court for an order of injunction restraining President Jonathan from further contesting or attempting to vie for President after May 29, 2015, when his tenure shall, by the Nigerian Constitution, ends.Not done, Njoku as well requests an order of injunction restraining the PDP from further sponsoring or attempting to sponsor the first defendant as candidate for election to the office of the President in the 2015; and an order directing the third defendant, INEC, from accepting the name of the first defendant, where sponsored by his party again to run for president in the 2015 presidential election to be supervised and conducted by the third defendant (INEC).LAST week, in a suspicious turnaround, reports on the matter had it that the same Court will on May 30, receive the report of the out-of-court settlement sought by the PDP in the suit brought by its member, Mr. Cyriacus Njoku.That was after the president's legal team had asked the court to trash the suit because it is vexatious and nonsensical. The president cried out loud: that he is just in his first year, and had not told anybody that he would contest again in 2015.Leaving out the technicalities of the suit, it is clear that mischief-makers are at work again. Their aim is to carry out some political divinations regarding 2015, with a view to seeking clarifications on where the joker would reside. In this game of political subterfuge, it is difficult to know who is who. It is difficult to know on whose side Mr. Njoku is operating from, whether he is for or against the president.Curiously, sometime in 2010, the same Cyriacus Njoku, also referred to as a 'Professor', was at the High Court of the Federal Capital, Abuja, before Justice Lawan Gunmi, the Chief Judge, asking that Jonathan could not contest the 2011 presidential election because he violated an article in the constitution of the PDP. He asked the court to stop Jonathan from participating in the PDP presidential primary because the presidency had been zoned to the North.Those were very trying and difficult days for the polity, when a segment of frontline politicians in the PDP from the North formed a strong team against Jonathan. The party did some 'magic' and Jonathan was not only allowed to participate in the primary, but he also won remarkably.Now, a matching scenario is playing out, and it is difficult to know who is instigating what, especially when the same architects of the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election are still going about sure-footedly. The masterminds of the faceless Association for Better Nigeria (ABN) and their fictitious Prof. Atkins of those heady days are still prowling the polity, and going to court to fly ludicrous kites is the least of their dastardly acts.AWAY from behind-the-scene moves, frontline leaders from the North are not hiding their desire for power to return to the North in 2015. They are holding meetings night and day and unabashedly, too. They do not care that this government is just in its first year and that it deserves some respite after the neck-breaking politics that ushered it in 2011.However, these northern leaders, and others elsewhere in the country, are urged on by the seeming lacklustre performance of government across board and particularly the enthronement of lawlessness in the North, as a result of the ruthless activities of Boko Haram, to begin earnestly to work ahead for 2015.They are also facilitated by Mr. President's body language, which is not different from that prior to 2011, when by stealth, he won the hearts of the governors, the party and majority of Nigerians to win a resounding election.Talking about the president's body language, the man is calmly playing hard politics and making it difficult for 'enemies' to pin him down to a statement. On the subject of 2015, he has been ambiguous and using equivocation to dance around. It is very simple to say, 'I am not vying in 2015,' but all the president's statements in that regard did not say in clear terms whether he is running in 2015 or not.But he offered an explanation for this. While it was clear in May 2010, after the demise of President Umaru Yar'Adua, that Jonathan could run in 2011, he didn't say yes or no. According to him, either answer could send wrong signals to the polity, and mischief-makers could take advantage to cause major distraction in governance. Still, that did not stop him and his team from doing underground calculations and when the time came, he took a plunge and did not look back.This was taken in the North to mean that Jonathan has some 'ace up his sleeve' and could not be trusted again on that subject matter.A few months after inauguration in 2011, the president carelessly broached the idea of amending the Constitution, to tamper with the tenure of the president and governors. He wanted a single term of about six years so that a moratorium is created to allow an elected government a sane environment to perform before the next round of politicking, just the way 2015 has unleashed itself on the polity. That drew the ire of the opposition and it was interpreted to mean that he wanted tenure elongation.Having gone through the harrowing experience of 2010/2011, it is difficult for Jonathan not to be concerned about 2015 and the kind of reform that would deliver it without much stress, wear and tear. He then set up the Justice Belgore Committee, which was charged to take a look at certain outstanding constitutional issues that have been difficult to crack, including issues of succession and power rotation.Segments of the polity think the president is shy about frontally confronting issues of political reform. Proponents of constitutional amendment, who are more in the South, have gone to town, asking for a restructuring of the federation, while the North is generally not interested in anything fundamental except power shift and more money from the Federation Account.On the painful side, the Boko Haram has dealt a fatal blow on government institutions all over the North and Abuja, with a promise to do more. The northern political leadership is at a loss what to do with a militant wing that has gone berserk.In the confusion, new theories and demography alluding to a poverty inspired insurrection have been hurriedly dished out to support a demand for a restructuring of the revenue sharing formula. More blame is then heaped on Jonathan, for doing nothing against bad governance, corruption, poverty and insecurity. And the quickest way for the North to tackle these accumulated problems of many decades is to go for 2015, no more no less.A coalition of younger Northern Politicians, Academics, Professionals and Businessmen met on February 24, to 'deliberate on matters of serious concern to the Northern States and their peoples.'The meeting said it had 'reflected on the deteriorating security situation in the North, particularly with regard to the growth and impunity by the Boko Haram insurgents and other ethnic religious militias in the North,' and also 'considered the threats posed by resurgent activities of the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND), other Niger Delta militant groups, the Movement for the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB), as well as threats by recent calls by groups for a sovereign national conference.'Consequently, it said it was bothered by the waning unity among the people of the North and resolved that all must join hands to tackle the challenges.The coalition resolved to support calls for the restructuring of the Nigerian Federation in the hope that the lopsidedness in the arrangement of the nation's politics and economy will be a key agenda issue.Governors of Niger and Jigawa states, Dr. Mu'azu Babangida Aliyu and Alhaji Sule Lamido, respectively attended the meeting. Others include the convener, Dr. Junaidu Muhammed; former Senate President, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu; a former Deputy Senate President, Dr. John Wash Pam; former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Alhaji Yayale Ahmed; and former Ministers, such as Dr. Shettima Mustapha, Alhaji Adamu Maina Waziri and Malam Lawal Batagarawa.Also in attendance were a former chairman of the Presidential Advisory Council, Prof. Nur Alkali; a former chairman of Langtang South Local Government Council, Mr. Solomon Dalung; former Presidential Legal Advisers, Ibrahim Ismail and Prof. Auwalu Yadudu; and newspaper publishers, including Sam Nda-Isaiah and Mohammed Haruna.On March 10, another high-powered meeting took place in the North, to allegedly, address the twin issues of poverty and insecurity. Those who attended include former military rulers, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar; former Finance Minister, Adamu Ciroma; Nigeria's former Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Maitama Sule; former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar; former President of the Court of Appeal, Justice Mamman Nasir; former military administrator of old North-Eastern State, Abba Kyari; former Vice Chancellor of the ABU, Prof. Ango Abdullahi; former military administrator of Oyo State, Paul Tarfa; and former Deputy Senate President, John Wash Pam.Before it went into a closed-door session, Maitama Sule had set the tone for the discourse, noting that if nothing drastic was done to arrest the insecurity and poverty in the North, nobody would escape the trouble that was looming.The two meetings, at least, pretended that the issues of poverty, insecurity and unity in the North were the real subjects that called their attention. But barely two weeks after the meeting of February 24, the convener of the coalition of Northern Politicians, Academics, Professionals and Businessmen, Dr. Mohammed, went combative, alleging that some top personalities in the North had been contracted to achieve President Jonathan's alleged plot to remain in power after 2015.He said: 'That committee (on outstanding constitutional issues) is being headed by a northerner and we are aware that the plans have gone very far and the northerner is retired Justice Belgore. We are aware of his activities; we know what has been happening in the committee because we are aware they have been exchanging blows because he (Belgore) is determined to carry the agenda of the presidency to bring up a Constitution that can make the Aso Villa (President Jonathan) achieve its goal come 2015. That is why he (Belgore) is one of those we have declared as the enemy of northern Nigeria and we are going to deal with him whatever it takes.'The Junaid coalition is convinced that Jonathan wants to extend his tenure beyond 2015 and this is why there are attempts to forge a common front among northerners so that 'tenure elongation' would be frustrated.The recent congresses and national convention of the PDP, where Alhaji Bamanga Tukur emerged as national chairman, in spite of the strong coalition by governors and party caucuses to thwart the 'veto' powers of President Jonathan, has also added more fuel to the fire stoked by 2015. Those who do not want the president to run think the 'imposition' of Tukur is a ploy to give the party machinery to Jonathan.Already, Tukur is finding it hard to summon the governors to order. A meeting, which was supposed to have held last Thursday, could not hold, allegedly because a good number of the PDP governors shunned the meeting. Even though the party had blamed the poor outing to poor communication, there is no doubt that 2015 will cause a lot of division in the party, especially if Jonathan is involved.More meetings are going on in the North even as former militants of the Niger Delta are demanding that Jonathan has another term to run after 2015, as the Constitution stipulates. Not to forget the Ndigbo, whose claim to the presidency has been on the table long before the emergence of Jonathan!One thing remains clear; as long as the Constitution is silent on power transfer among the geopolitical zones, leaving such sensitive subject for a poorly managed political party like the PDP to handle, will continue to cause problems.It is even more problematic, leaving these big issues for a corrupt and inept political class to mismanage. 2015 will, no doubt, be very hot, and full of mischief, intrigues and plots.
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