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The rippling effects of the euro-zone debt crisis on Nigeria's economy

Published by Guardian on Wed, 10 Oct 2012


IN 2008, the global economic crash shook the economy of major countries of the world. Since then, various countries have tried to scheme rescue plans to salvage their economy. Meanwhile, the European continent has been the major player of the world economy. Its rescue programmes became a pivotal outlook of other continents, hoping to tap from it. However, the faith placed in the rescue mission of the Euro-Zone is currently pilloried by the egregious debt crisis facing it.When the global crash started in 2008, the Euro-Zone presented a common front in tackling the effects in Euro-nations. The European Central Bank stepped in by providing bail -out funds to most of the member'countries. Interest rates of bonds were regulated. This decision was intended to reduce tension. As a result, the ECB not only regulated the interest on bonds to a minimal ratio but also bought many government bonds from the Euro-Zone.Despite this, the Euro-Zone countries turned out not to be able to manage their individual economic quagmire. Countries such as Spain, Portugal, and Greece continued to face budget problems, failure in real estate and increased debt profiles.More countries in the 17 Euro-zone kept approaching the ECB for rescue. In 2010 a three-year rescue package was approved for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, to the tune of 194.5 billion Euro ' with an IMF assistance package of 74 billion Euro. The United State (U.S.) and Europe, who occupied the executive position of the IMF, were able to pressurize the financial lending institution (IMF) to offer loans to countries in the Euro-Zone.Meanwhile, the total IMF quota is known to be US -$ 383 billion and its usable resource is US -$ 628 billion of which the one-year forward capacity fee is US $ 389 billion. So far, the IMF has given out US $ 290 billion to Greece alone in its first and second quarter programme. Following this trajectory, the IMF has raised the fear of depleted funds to support its members in continents of Africa and Asia believed to need their assistance more.The situation in Europe has resulted in economic shock and job losses. A European economist has described the debt crises rocking the zone as a threat that would provide significant and long -lasting output losses with negative external effects. This economic gloom is currently evident from the crash of the Euro against the Dollar. The use of crude oil has been the major component for gas production in the energy sector of the Euro-zone. However, the Euro-zone is considering an alternative source of raw material in its energy production to cut down the incurable cost on importation of oil. This decision would inadvertently affect the demand of crude oil, which might spell economic doom to oil exporting countries such as Nigeria.Nigeria is a major exporter of oil in the world; it is the eighth largest producer of crude, with an OPEC quota of 2,306 million barrels per day and a production capacity of 2.25million barrels. However, Nigeria currently produces 2.6 million barrels a day. It exports this crude at a fluctuating rate of between 1.9m barrels a day to 1.8 million; at a price range of US $120 to US $98 per barrel.The increased demand of crude determines the rate of export price in dollars. In March 2012, the rate dropped from $128 dollar such that by June it came down to $97 per barrel. The debt crises of the Euro-Zone would affect its demand from marketers and this may force OPEC to reduce the export quota of member countries or reduce the price of the commodity. If this happens, there would be a huge decline in government inflow because oil exports account for 80 per cent of its revenue and the budget estimates are determined from production rates and crude prices.This unpleasant outlook calls for a timely intervention of the Federal Government, to diversify the economy by concentrating on the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. The government also needs to explore the tourism and creative industry. This will complement the human and natural endowments embedded in these sectors to boost the economy.The key way to boost the agricultural and manufacturing sectors is to provide soft loans to farmers and manufacturers. This also demands that the PHCN hastens its power distribution projections.The Hollywood industry generates over $286 million yearly. This output can go up if the government takes a keen interest in the industry. The Federal Government should work with the industry leaders to exchange ideas on how it could increase its earnings, create jobs and promote the country as a tourist destination.The budget is the only document that reveals actions and plans, whether by government or corporate citizens. While we applaud the recent action of the government mandating ministers to sign a quarterly performance bond, the government should also watch out for loopholes that can be subverted by some ministries while complying with the directive. The government also needs to obey the fiscal legislations guiding the preparation of budget, by preparing the MTSS and MTEF documents on its financial plans for medium term, as at when due. Lingering realities posit the need for wider consultation on the MTSS and MTEF process. Therefore, the federal government should create the template for dialogue with stakeholders who control the required capacity for inputs in budget decisions.All said, the path of growth could only lie in a secured environment. The menace of insecurity has hampered economic and social development of the country. The government should, therefore, do whatever is necessary to dialogue with Nigerians on the manifold challenges it is facing.'Victor Emejuiwe works with an NGO and wrote from Abuja
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