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A huge oil producer is ramping up production ' but there's reason to remain cautious

Published by Business Insider on Thu, 04 May 2017


Oil prices have cratered in recent days following a slew of news, including renewed oversupply fears from Libya.Last week, the country'sSharara and El Feel oilfields, whichcan pump 400,000 barrels per day,came back online.The National Oil Company (NOC) said onMondaythat Libya's oil production jumped to 760,000 bpd ' the highest level since December 2014. Chairman Mustafa Sanalla added that the NOC was working to boost production even further.And finally, there have been reports that talks between leaders of the two largest rival factions,the headof the UN-backed government Fayez al-Sarraj and General Khalifa Haftar, have "made some progress."Market sentiment and oil pricesdove amid renewed oversupply fears given that these developments appear to be a positive sign for Libya's oil sector.However,there are reasons to remain cautious about a "sustainably strong" return of Libyan oil, saidHelima Croft, the head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets."[W]e strongly caution against uncorking the champagne just yet as some of the most powerful armed actors are not party to the agreement (most notably the western militias) and the previous political settlements have proved to be short-lived," she saidin a note."Hence, we reiterate our view that Libyan output will continue to fluctuate and any output increase remains at risk for reversal."Libya's oil production has sputtered amid the ongoing domestic political, economic, and security challenges since Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown in 2011as rival governments and numerous armed groups have competed for power.Notably, Libya's production comeback hasn't been the only recent bearish news for oil prices.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday in a conference call with reporters that "no decision has been made yet" regarding whether Russia will extend its agreement with OPEC and non-OPEC countries to cut production.Meanwhile, data from the Energy Information Administration released Wednesday showed US crude output jumped to 9.29 million barrels per day ' the highest since August 2015. Moreover, crude inventories fell by 930,000 barrels per day, well belowanalysts' forecasts of 2.3 million barrel drop.Oil prices sank to their lowest level since November 2016 on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the US benchmark, was down by 4.3% at $45.77per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, was off3.8% at $48.83 per barrel at1:01p.m. ET.SEE ALSO:Oil prices can tell you a lot about military spendingJoin the conversation about this storyNOW WATCH: How the US could prevent a North Korean nuclear strike ' according to a former Marine and cyberwarfare expert
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