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The singularity is upon us (1)

Published by Guardian on Thu, 27 Jun 2013


I'VE been thinking quite a lot recently, about 'the singularity' ' not the theorized consequences of a massive star's implosion but the post-human society which, some futurologists predict, is just around the corner.According to these prognostications, artificial intelligence (AI), resulting from exponential increases in computing power, will supercede the natural intelligence of humans. This, theorists project, will render humans obsolete and transform our planet in ways that cannot, as yet, be modeled or imagined.'From the human point of view,' wrote Vernor Vinge, in his historic 1993 paper, The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era, 'this change will be a throwing away of all the previous rules, perhaps in the blink of an eye, an exponential runaway beyond any hope of control'.I will explain what brought this on momentarily, and discuss its implications for Africans ' which are not encouraging. Technologically, the 'singularity' has long been bearing down on the Black Race. Unless we can affect radical changes in our collective behavior, very quickly, it will surely devour us.Comprehension, at least among the uninitiated, may be enhanced somewhat, if I also explain the astronomical origins of the term 'singularity'. But first, I want to make sure you have a general idea of what the singularity is.So, let me finish laying down Vernor Vinge's hypothesis or, rather, allow him to do it, in his own words:' The development of computers that are 'awake' and superhumanly intelligent. (To date, most controversy in the area of AI relates to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is 'yes, we can', then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter.' Large computer networks (and their associated users) may 'wakeup' as a superhumanly intelligent entity.' Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.' Biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural human intellect.Vinge calls this point a 'singularity,' because, he continues, 'It is a point where our models must be discarded and a new reality rules'.What prompted me to address this issue, are discussions I've had with younger people, especially university students.Repeated encounters with one student, in particular, who is reading 'Computer Science' at the University of Port Harcourt, has imbued in me a sense of urgency.The trigger was his response ' or lack thereof ' to a casual, offhanded question: 'Have any of your lecturers discussed Moore's Law in the course of their lectures''Moore's law, to paraphrase Wikipedia, refers to the proposition that the number of transistors on integrated circuits'and hence the computing power of computers'doubles every 18 to 24 months.It is named after Gordon E. Moore, co-founder of Intel, the world's largest semiconductor chip maker. Computer trends, dating from the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958, Wikipedia says, have proven Moore correct.Those who have read any cosmology know that the term 'singularity' is an astronomical metaphor. It is an oblique reference to what happens when a very massive star uses up its fuel and collapses.There is a supernovae explosion 'one of the most violent events in nature- which blows the star apart. Its core remnant then implodes inward on itself, compacting so tightly that it disappears.Left behind, is a powerful gravitational field, from which not even light can escape, making the entity invisible.Such an object is called a 'black hole'. Astrophysicists postulate that, inside a black hole, matter loses its identity and merges with space ' a condition they refer to as a 'singularity'.In fact, they theorise, there is a radius around a black hole, a gravitational boundary, beyond which no form of information can reach an observer. Beyond this point, the laws of physics break down.Technically, this 'point of no return' is known as the Schwarzschild radius'but more commonly, the 'event horizon'. Anything that crosses the event horizon is lost forever.Throughout the universe, stars, planets and, indeed entire galaxies, are being gradually dragged towards the event horizon of black holes and continually pulled in.Likewise, futurologists argue, human society is spiraling inexorably into a condition that is no less a 'singularity': A condition in which evolutionary rules break down and from which there is no escape' To be continued
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